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Last update - 22:37 30/09/2009
ANALYSIS / Is there 'smoking gun' proof of Iran bid for nukes?
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Iran, North Korea, Nuclear 

A day before the launching of talks between the six world powers and Iran, an Iranian official justified the hiding of the newly revealed nuclear installation in Qom.

Meanwhile, new publications in the United States indicate a dispute between various intelligence bodies on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program.

The head of the Iranian nuclear program and Deputy President Ali Akbar Salachi said yesterday that the construction of the installation under a mountain near the holy city of Qom was meant to protect it from attack. Salachi said that Iran was ready to discuss its nuclear program, but not to give up its right to enrich uranium.
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Unlike the Israeli press, which operates under strict censorship when covering Iran-related news, American media has been free to dwell on all details of the matter. The New York Times yesterday dedicated considerable space to the debate between various intelligence agencies over the progresses and degree of activity of the military aspect in the Iranian nuclear program.

The debate centers on the "smoking gun" - definitive proof of Iran's military intentions. According to the Times, the debate reached it's apogee in 2007, when an American intelligence report stated Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear warhead ceased as early as 2003.

There are still disagreements, as Germany claims that Iran never stopped the program, and Israel claims it had resumed it in 2005. France has hinted that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) knows more than it is willing to admit. American intelligence insists that there is no proof Iran had renewed its efforts on a military nuclear program since 2003. They say Israeli claims are based on undocumented circumstantial evidence, far from constituting viable proof.

The Times also notes the current disagreements are influenced by the debate surrounding Iraq's supposed possession of weapons of mass destruction before 2003. The credibility of American intelligence was badly damaged by what was seen as over-emphasizing insufficient evidence, and has tended to be considerably more circumspect in its estimates today.

The Iranian showcasing of several types of ballistic missiles in its military exercises earlier this week did not reveal much new about Iranian abilities. Weapons expert Uzi Rubin, a former Defense Ministry official, told Haaretz that all missiles displayed in the exercises have been seen before. However, he said, the launching of the 2,400-kilometer range Sajil missile is of considerable importance, as it demonstrates Iranian capability to launch long-distance missiles. Iran has previously demonstrated its ability to launch an intercontinental missile by sending off a satellite some months ago.

"They have left their North Korean friends far, far behind," said Rubin. "The meaning of this move should be clear to many countries besides Israel. The distance between Iran and Israel remains the same, and the Iranians have already proved they can cover it with a ballistic missile. But when they send off a 2,400-kilometer missile, even if that doesn?t cover all of the desired range, the inevitable conclusion is that Iran can attack several Eastern European states, if it so wishes."

Another military expert, who, as part of the defense establishment prefers to remain unnamed, told Haaretz that Iran demonstrated independent and variable launch abilities once again. Any further progress, the expert said, "is just a matter of making a decision and allocating time and money" by the Tehran leadership. "The Americans understand the gravity of the situation, and this is why they are reacting so strongly both to the missiles exercise and to the revelation of the secret uranium-enrichment site near the city of Qom. After appearing pale and unimpressive in their response to the North Korean missile experiment, it's important for the Americans to appear much tougher toward Iran."



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      1.   All that and still no "smoking gun..." 05:42  |  BBSNews 30/09/09
      2.   Warhead will be last component 07:00  |  Paul Freedman 30/09/09
      3.   How many secret nuclear weapons does Israel have? 07:19  |  an enraged bystander 30/09/09
      4.   US Intelligence versus German Intelligence. 07:20  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/09/09
      5.   Pale and unimpressive the US will continue to be. 07:26  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/09/09
      6.   You have the horse before the cart. Iran has to prove its case 08:05  |  Peter Williams 30/09/09
      7.   quiblling, self delusion, Chamberlain mentality 08:30  |  Lefty Pundit 30/09/09
      8.   smoking gun, open your eyes 08:34  |  Ben Shalom 30/09/09
      9.   Where Have I Heard that Before? 08:52  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/09/09
      10.   Fortuna - Maybe Germany & Colombia Should 09:34  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/09/09
      11.   Drifting apart 10:34  |  Lars Hansen 30/09/09
      12.   Smoking Gun and Mushroom Cloud 13:00  |  Mark Lincoln 30/09/09
      13.   If you close your eyes Iran is no threat, but please dont snore 13:06  |  Avi 30/09/09
      14.   The tougher... 14:20  |  Pablo Luis 30/09/09
      15.   How imbessals colonized the Earth 14:51  |  Darth Zaider (Ed) 30/09/09
      16.   #12 Mark Lincoln...500 tons of yellowcake 15:14  |  Lynn 30/09/09
      17.   smoking gun 15:18  |  honesty 30/09/09
      18.   #6 Peter Williams 15:41  |  Jim 30/09/09
      19.   #6 Peter Williams P.S. 15:45  |  Jim 30/09/09
      20.   #5 Fortuna ....the US has a lax and unimpressive 15:54  |  Lynn 30/09/09
      21.   Zaider, why does truth equal antisemitism in your bubble? 15:57  |  BBSNews 30/09/09
      22.   #7 Lefty Pundit 16:00  |  Jim 30/09/09
      23.   #14 Pablo Luis 16:08  |  Jim 30/09/09
      24.   #15 Darth Zaider 16:47  |  Jim 30/09/09
      25.   What about Israel`s smoking guns - 200 of them! 17:47  |  Abe 30/09/09
      26.   For Mark of Lewiston 18:13  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/09/09
      27.   Humans are much dumber that they like to think 18:42  |  Not a human 30/09/09
      28.   #16 Lynn, what is so impressive about working Americans having 19:03  |  Mark B. 30/09/09
      29.   I agree Lynn 19:49  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/09/09
      30.   #16 Say Cupcake Lynn, still whining about Obama?! 20:16  |  ballistic 30/09/09
      31.   Mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv 20:37  |  Frank 30/09/09
      32.   For those saying Iran can buy a nuclear 21:08  |  Chris Linthwaite 30/09/09
      33.   Lynn/Fortuna Benmayor 22:48  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/09/09
      34.   Reassuring Signatories - Chris Linthwaite 00:21  |  Mark Lincoln 01/10/09
      35.   OK, BBS, challenge accepted 01:45  |  Darth Zaider (Ed) 01/10/09
      36.   Logic: Burden of Proof to show NOT weaponizing!!! 08:27  |  Paqid Yirmeyahu 02/10/09
      37.   Jim #19 18:47  |  Peter Williams 02/10/09
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