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Last update - 17:11 12/09/2009
ANALYSIS / Clock ticking for Iran as Israel appears ready for strike
By Amos Harel
Tags: Iran, Nuclear Program 

In the rare moments when it's not preoccupied with the decline of U.S. President Barack Obama in the polls and with the debate over its government's proposed health-care reforms, the American press continues to deal almost obsessively with another pressing issue: the deadlock in efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program and the growing likelihood that the endgame will be an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

In the past few weeks alone, an editorial in The Wall Street Journal warned the president that the United States must put a quick halt to the Iranian nuclear program, because otherwise Israel will bomb the facilities.

"An Israeli strike on Iran would be the most dangerous foreign policy issue President Obama could face," the paper wrote.
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Former vice president Dick Cheney revealed that while in office he supported an American strike against Iran, but was compelled to accept the approach of president George W. Bush, who preferred the diplomatic route.

Another Republican ultra-hawk, former ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, maintains that additional sanctions alone will not be enough to make the Iranians abandon their nuclear ambitions. William Cohen, who served as secretary of defense during Bill Clinton's second presidential term (1997-2001), says that "there is a countdown taking place" and that Israel "is not going to sit indifferently on the sidelines and watch Iran continue on its way toward a nuclear-weapons capability."

The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, explains that "a very narrow window" exists between the possibility of resolving the issue and an attack on Iran.

An op-ed in The Los Angeles Times states (with some justification) that if Iran does not respond in September to the demands made of it, the world should brace itself for an Israeli attack. However, the author adds (mistakenly) that in the event of an Israeli strike, Obama "will probably learn of the operation from CNN rather than the CIA."

This month will mark a critical juncture in Iran's race for nuclear capability. The timetable is getting ever shorter: Most Western intelligence services share the assessment that over the course of 2010, Iran will accumulate sufficient fissionable material to produce two or three nuclear bombs. If the Iranians succeed in dispersing this material among a large number of secret sites, it will reduce the likelihood that the project can be stopped.

Even though Obama has now been in office for seven and a half months, Tehran has not responded to his offer to engage in direct dialogue about the nuclear issue.

At first the talks were deferred in anticipation of the Iranian presidential elections in June, then because of the internal crisis that erupted there in their wake, and now the regime is engaging in additional - and typical - delay tactics. Last week, for the first time, Tehran announced readiness in principle to conduct negotiations with the international community.

Peaceful enrichment

The European Union appears to want to reach a decision on the subject ahead of the authorization of a fourth round of international sanctions against Iran, in the context of the G-20 conference to be held in Pittsburgh in about two weeks. Israel is apprehensive that the Americans may delay a final decision until December.

The impression gained by Israelis who have visited Washington lately is that Obama is gradually backing away from the Bush administration's fundamental demand that Iran cease to enrich uranium as a precondition for beginning a dialogue.

Subsequently, they believe, the United States will offer Iran the following compromise: The Iranians will be allowed to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes (under tight international supervision), the previous sanctions imposed on Iran will be lifted and the two sides will reach understandings concerning Iran's interests in a number of arenas, notably Iraq, ahead of the planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from there.

Obama would be able to present such an arrangement as an accomplishment. After all, before the election in November he promised to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, not to force it to stop enriching uranium. From Israel's point of view, however, this will probably not be enough.

According to Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, former head of Israel's National Security Council, "The United States was ready to sign an agreement to that effect Thursday. The prospect that Iran will agree, despite the temptation of gaining international recognition for its right to enrich uranium, remains small."

In his view, "For its strategy to succeed, America needs a broad and binding international coalition. I still don't see them getting Russia and China to back such a move, and their support is essential."

Despite its fear that Iran will use the peaceful enrichment go-ahead to continue advancing secretly toward a bomb, Israel might, as a fallback position, accept such a compromise as long as it is clear that the international supervision is strong enough and that, in anticipation of the likely eventuality Iran will be found cheating, a broad coalition to toughen the sanctions is put together in advance.

If the dialogue fails, or never begins, more severe sanctions might be put into place: a ban on the purchase of oil from Iran and on the export of petroleum distillates to it, or even a maritime embargo. But the potential effectiveness of these moves, with Tehran already well past the halfway mark toward achieving its goal, is in doubt.

Looking the other way

So, the moment of truth will arrive at some point between the end of 2009 and the middle of 2010: Should Iran be attacked? American experts agree that this would involve an Israeli strike. It is very unlikely that Obama will be the one dispatching American planes to Natanz.

During the past year, military experts and commentators are increasingly coming around to the view that the Israel Air Force is capable of executing the mission. The Israel Defense Forces was significantly upgraded during the tenure of Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi. The goal, it is argued, is not to liquidate the Iranian project but to set it back. According to this line of thought, if an attack, American or Israeli, causes a couple of years' delay in the project it will have achieved its aim. Similarly, before launching the attack on the Iraqi reactor in 1981, Israel did not foresee the chain of events that finally forced Saddam Hussein to forgo his nuclear ambitions.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak take a similar view of the Iranian threat. At least, that is what both their public statements and their comments in closed meetings suggest.

For an Israeli attack to be considered, Israel would need the tacit approval of the Obama administration, if only in the sense that it looks the other way. This is due above all to the necessity of passing through the Iraqi air corridor, as American soldiers will still be in Iraq in 2011. No less important is strategic coordination for the day after: How will the United States react to a prolonged aerial attack by Israel on the nuclear sites and to the regional flare-up that might follow?

These are matters that would have to be agreed on directly between Obama and Netanyahu. The disparity in their policy stances, together with the total lack of personal chemistry between them, is liable to prove a hindrance.

Iran is likely to respond to an Israeli attack by opening fronts nearby, via Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Three years after the Second Lebanon War and at the end of a broad process of learning lessons from that conflict, the IDF is quite confident of its ability to deal with Hezbollah. At the same time, it's clear that Israel will be subjected to extensive rocket attacks that can be expected to cover most of the country.

A key question would be Syria's behavior. Israel has a salient interest in having Damascus be no more than a spectator in a confrontation. If the attack on Iran is perceived to have been successful, that is probably how the Syrians will respond.

But an attack on Iran will reopen a decades-old blood feud - and the Iranians have both a long memory and a great deal of patience. With decisions like this looming within a year, it's no wonder that Netanyahu wants to get the Gilad Shalit affair wrapped up.

A decision to attack Iran would mean that the IDF bears central responsibility for resolving the nuclear threat. In the years when Mossad director Meir Dagan held prime minister Ariel Sharon in his thrall (and even more so his successor, Ehud Olmert), the general belief was that the espionage agency could, together with political efforts, contain the Iranian nuclear project. And, indeed, if Western intelligence services had to push back their forecasts repeatedly over the past decade regarding when the project would be completed, it's a safe bet that not all of Iran's delays were due to divine providence. At present, however, no action looms - other than an attack - that is capable of preventing Iran from achieving its goal.

Deep and impressive cooperation exists between the IDF and the Mossad in many arenas. But this is clouded by professional differences and personal friction between the heads of the two organizations. In a few cases, it even looked as though the two were merrily pouring salt on each others' wounds.
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  1.   TRANSLATION: War Lovers Winning in Israel 13:57  |  Mark Lincoln 11/09/09
  2.   Only Fox - Rupert Murdoch`s News Corp 14:00  |  Mark Lincoln 11/09/09
  3.   "The Israeli Air Force is capable". The mullah has been warned! 14:34  |  Realist 11/09/09
  4.   Sigh. Well, goodbye Israel, nice knowin` ya... 14:52  |  BBSNews 11/09/09
  5.   :: Lets focus on Israel`s illegal WMDs 15:38  |  Matty Groves 11/09/09
  6.   This is all sheer propaganda 16:31  |  American in NY 11/09/09
  7.   to matty groves - iran is building a bomb 16:32  |  adam 11/09/09
  8.   to #5 There is no equivalency 16:33  |  Akiva 11/09/09
  9.   Meanwhile, deep in the forest, Matty Groves continues to froth 16:33  |  Jacob Blues 11/09/09
  10.   The other problem is... 18:55  |  Adam 11/09/09
  11.   to # 5 Matty 19:11  |  John 11/09/09
  12.   America has sent Israel a fortune in aid 19:23  |  Canadian 11/09/09
  13.   Afgahistan, Illegal Immigration, Michel Jackson 19:30  |  Wellington 11/09/09
  14.   George Bush turned over Iraqi air space back to Iraq 19:32  |  binny 11/09/09
  15.   Adios israel 19:35  |  Truthibitter 11/09/09
  16.   To #1 -- You have no idea what you are talking about 19:38  |  Josh 11/09/09
  17.   Brass Balls 19:43  |  Paul 11/09/09
  18.   Good! Here`s a check list, Israel 19:43  |  Morris Valentine 11/09/09
  19.   To the pro-Israel posters 19:51  |  Josh 11/09/09
  20.   adam, Iran could have struck with chemicals for years... 20:01  |  BBSNews 11/09/09
  21.   Akiva, Iran`s not threatened Israel ever, on the other hand... 20:06  |  BBSNews 11/09/09
  22.   adam - you are wrong on so many fronts! 20:10  |  Steve 11/09/09
  23.   Jacob Blues, your comment could be simply turned around... 20:11  |  BBSNews 11/09/09
  24.   Well put Matty Groves 20:18  |  Claudia 11/09/09
  25.   `Clock is ticking for Iran as Israel appears ready for strike ` 20:25  |  Colin Wright 11/09/09
  26.   Are you kidding me matty!! 20:26  |  Sammy 11/09/09
  27.   #15 20:59  |  Viewer 11/09/09
  28.   Feel Free To Try It At Your Own Peril 21:21  |  Tabasco 11/09/09
  29.   In response to #5 21:35  |  Lisa 11/09/09
  30.   A bit of perspective needed methinks 21:39  |  r cummings 11/09/09
  31.   To the B.S. News "time`s up" wingnut (# 20) 21:52  |  flyingdoc57 11/09/09
  32.   Iran threatening to attack Iran BBS? 22:14  |  Jacob Blues 11/09/09
  33.   Iran states intent to destroy Israel, Article 51 permits action 22:26  |  Dr. L. Brnd 11/09/09
  34.   Attacking Iran? What a joke and backlash it... 22:43  |  Dutch Dirk 11/09/09
  35.   Jacob Blues - How does that differ from the Pals? 22:47  |  Easy Does It 11/09/09
  36.   To # 8 22:47  |  Steve 11/09/09
  37.   Matty Groves - no `illegal` WMD 22:55  |  Mark Lincoln 11/09/09
  38.   iran 23:08  |  john nazari 11/09/09
  39.   The message is very clear 23:40  |  alan the real one 11/09/09
  40.   To those who are bidding farewell to Israel 23:41  |  Gilles 11/09/09
  41.   # 26 Dr, L Bmd 00:04  |  The Teacher/Instruct 12/09/09
  42.   Adam - Forgot to Mention 00:14  |  Mona 12/09/09
  43.   israel will survive 00:14  |  johnson 12/09/09
  44.   threat to U.S. 00:25  |  believer 12/09/09
  45.   Adam 00:26  |  Mona 12/09/09
  46.   The clock is now stopped. Talks are on! 00:43  |  BBSNews 12/09/09
  47.   Brnd, Iran has stated no such thing... 00:45  |  BBSNews 12/09/09
  48.   Josh, what facts? 00:56  |  BBSNews 12/09/09
  49.   I somewhat disagree with this article. 01:13  |  sara 12/09/09
  50.   Matty, you are dead on right. 01:18  |  bob 12/09/09
  51.   DR. L BRND STOP WITH LIES! 01:26  |  Remy 12/09/09
  52.   Read All : Ilan Berman - Tehran Rising 01:56  |  soeasytobesmart 12/09/09
  53.   Dr. L. Brnd 02:16  |  Lee Anderson 12/09/09
  54.   DON`T ATTACK IRAN 02:34  |  John Porter 12/09/09
  55.   The Rise & Fall Of The Iranian Reich 02:38  |  Lavi 12/09/09
  56.   #26 When, Brnd? 02:59  |  Johnboy 12/09/09
  57.   Steve #19 Al Capone never killed anyone either 03:12  |  Peter Williams 12/09/09
  58.   The world willing to live with Iran nukes 03:29  |  Curious 12/09/09
  59.   :: JacobBlue pleads self-ignorance (again) 03:40  |  Matty Groves 12/09/09
  60.   #3, REALIST, and so have you 03:55  |  VIPER 12/09/09
  61.   Not likely to happen 04:24  |  Marc Leb 12/09/09
  62.   and what will we do when the clock runs out? 04:50  |  joo boy 12/09/09
  63.   The Rise and Fall of Jewish Experiment: Exile Again 04:58  |  Wandering Jew 12/09/09
  64.   :: JacobBlue pleads self-ignorance (again) 05:18  |  Matty Groves 12/09/09
  65.   The drooling fantasy that Iran never threatened Israel... 05:41  |  Dr. L. Brnd 12/09/09
  66.   #40 you are confused 05:41  |  Mike 12/09/09
  67.   Clock ticking for Israel! 05:45  |  Raphael 12/09/09
  68.   Matty Groves Clueless 06:22  |  wackyliberal.com 12/09/09
  69.   Why would anyone want Iran to get nukes? 06:35  |  Akiva 12/09/09
  70.   Pull back to `67 borders (approx) and then 06:54  |  Steve 12/09/09
  71.   Matty Groves - Nobody Likes Being Threatened 06:57  |  Mark of Lewiston 12/09/09
  72.   destroy Israel nukes before ... asking Iran to .. 08:28  |  just facts 12/09/09
  73.   I hope Iran gets the bomb and gives it to Hizbollah or Al-quida 09:12  |  the end 12/09/09
  74.   About time for Israel to build a "diplomatical security belt".... 09:33  |  Swiss (Dino) 12/09/09
  75.   impossible dreams on both sides 10:40  |  bar Kochma 12/09/09
  76.   Are the War Lovers in Israel looking... 10:53  |  Maureen Ann 12/09/09
  77.   M.A.D. 10:54  |  Matthew_DC 12/09/09
  78.   Israel is the warmongerer, not Iran 11:47  |  Jaap 12/09/09
  79.   Israel`s National Interest 11:48  |  Robert Aughenbaugh 12/09/09
  80.   #36 Mona 11:55  |  Der Zweifler 12/09/09
  81.   What`ll they say AFTER Israel strikes Iran? 12:04  |  Petra 12/09/09
  82.   sara New York watch Fox for another view 12:08  |  Petra 12/09/09
  83.   the end, it would be w/ your scenario from hell. 12:28  |  Petra 12/09/09
  84.   John Porter seems your warning isn`t heard. 12:33  |  Petra 12/09/09
  85.   raphael 12:47  |  shimi 12/09/09
  86.   to #6 america is a tiger paper they failed in agfanistan and .. 12:55  |  lobey 12/09/09
  87.   SWISS 13:07  |  OZ 12/09/09
  88.   wackyliberal.com Actually Ahmadinijad quoted someone who said 14:07  |  CJ 12/09/09
  89.   Matty 14:13  |  oz 12/09/09
  90.   # 66 robert 14:21  |  Axel 12/09/09
  91.   VICIOUS CIRCLE? 14:25  |  second try 12/09/09
  92.   you are not a child if u can read this article 14:41  |  linfei 12/09/09
  93.   First sign that the attack has started. 15:03  |  Peter 12/09/09
  94.   Don`t presume too much 15:05  |  WHG 12/09/09
  95.   israel has the best tactical or strategic air force 15:33  |  bridgetoofar 12/09/09
  96.   how owuld iran respond to a usa bombing campaign 15:48  |  diegogarcia 12/09/09
  97.   holy country 16:41  |  n 12/09/09
  98.   Nuclear proliferation is rather inevitable 16:43  |  Ibrahim 12/09/09
  99.   #54 Wandering Jew 17:03  |  H 12/09/09
  100.   Dino (Swiss) 17:10  |  Real Swiss 12/09/09
  101.   Realist 17:12  |  Mary 12/09/09
  102.   A pre-emtiv strike by Iran is now legal 17:30  |  Singer 12/09/09
  103.   Nuclear Iran ? 17:40  |  Natalie Durson 12/09/09
  104.   War with Iran 17:49  |  Mark Conway 12/09/09
  105.   Attack on Iran 18:02  |  Joshua 12/09/09
  106.   #12, NOT SO ! 18:07  |  Gary 12/09/09
  107.   There will be no Israeli attack on Iran. 18:08  |  Murray of Montreal 12/09/09
  108.   #64, No understanding of pagan Islam ,Dino 18:16  |  Gary 12/09/09
  109.   Ibrahim - Agitating for Conflict? 18:19  |  Jane 12/09/09
  110.   #1 18:31  |  Harold 12/09/09
  111.   Good riddance to Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. 18:31  |  Clarence Darrow 12/09/09
  112.   # 66 robert 18:32  |  Axel 12/09/09
  113.   #5 Matty Groves - You`re partially correct 18:37  |  *BEN JABO 12/09/09
  114.   "Lets focus on Israels Illegal WMDs"/Matty G 18:40  |  Gary 12/09/09
  115.   does iran want us by the balls? 18:40  |  k- 12/09/09
  116.   to 1 you remind chamberlain at munich who wanted peace at any cos 18:44  |  dovdevan 12/09/09
  117.   what do u think of the only country that ever used nuke ? USA 18:53  |  dovdevan 12/09/09
  118.   #62 18:57  |  Harold 12/09/09
  119.   #69 19:03  |  Harold 12/09/09
  120.   PLAYING FOR KEEPS 19:21  |  FRED 12/09/09
  121.   #78 Joshua; The Iranians are not Arabs and 19:47  |  Murray of Montreal 12/09/09
  122.   #5 Matty Groves on the legality of WMD 19:55  |  Murray of Montreal 12/09/09
  123.   Poisonous snake 53 will be disappointed 20:03  |  Realist 12/09/09
  124.   Mary 76: three UN Security Council resolutions say you are wrong 20:12  |  Realist 12/09/09
  125.   Murray 89 that is exactly what Matty Groves 5 disagrees with 20:28  |  Realist 12/09/09
  126.   article is delusional 21:35  |  Shaun 12/09/09
  127.   words of a pakistani general 21:49  |  ombudsman 12/09/09
  128.   Petra "watch Fox for another view" 21:57  |  Roo 12/09/09
  129.   No. 54 ---Please Speak for Yourself 22:08  |  a wandering Jew 12/09/09
  130.   clock ticking 22:27  |  ralph lewis 12/09/09
  131.   If it happens 22:45  |  Jennifer 12/09/09
  132.   europe and the usa longs for an israeli strike on iran 23:11  |  ombudsman 12/09/09
  133.   Final Iranian nuclear development / decision 23:19  |  H.H.M 12/09/09
  134.   Could the real fear... 01:36  |  Maureen Ann 13/09/09
  135.   The ticking clock 01:52  |  WHG 13/09/09
  136.   45 03:51  |  zionist forever 13/09/09
  137.   Adios Israel? 03:55  |  Blakmor 13/09/09
  138.   #102 WHG &other idiots: & here I thought Nukes were obsolete comp 04:07  |  FU 13/09/09
  139.   #102 04:09  |  Blakmor 13/09/09
  140.   #101 Maureen Ann 04:11  |  Malach Ha Mavet 13/09/09
  141.   Murray of Montreal, the Canadian war drum beater 04:15  |  Tony Carcelli 13/09/09
  142.   #108, MALACH, EXCUSE ME 04:42  |  VIPER 13/09/09
  143.   ARAB COUNTRIES 04:55  |  TOBIA 13/09/09
  144.   #100, ombudsman, correct 04:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 13/09/09
  145.   #110 VIPER - Since you asked 05:03  |  Malach HaMavet 13/09/09
  146.   111 you are right 05:03  |  small Hitler 13/09/09
  147.   Israeli Haters! Go Israel! 05:06  |  larry 13/09/09
  148.   Matty Groves # 5 05:06  |  Sabra 13/09/09
  149.   #109,Tony Carcelli,Mussolini,Pearl Harbor, 9/11 mean nothing to u 05:21  |  FU 13/09/09
  150.   In which world are you living, BBS? 06:40  |  arik 13/09/09
  151.   The Fox Street Journal 07:47  |  Mark Lincoln 13/09/09
  152.   127 Arik, What world are you living in? 08:00  |  Dutch 13/09/09
  153.   Israeli air force most likely already has plan drawn. 08:06  |  Sarah 13/09/09
  154.   One little biddy problem with all this foolishness 08:10  |  Fred 13/09/09
  155.   this clock ticks belongs in the Guinness World Records Book 08:39  |  ahmad 13/09/09
  156.   diegogarcia reference history 09:00  |  neil 13/09/09
  157.   #139 FU, yeah fascists attacked the U.S 09:05  |  Tony Carcelli 13/09/09
  158.   Do we Palestinians have a say-so? 09:12  |  Daoud 13/09/09
  159.   #144, neil 09:14  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 13/09/09
  160.   120 and ignorance 11:39  |  john Spear 13/09/09
  161.   Iran vs ? 12:12  |  Phonk 13/09/09
  162.   Isreal and the 70 UN resolutions also attackes on other sovereign 12:28  |  Phonk 13/09/09
  163.   Daud 12:28  |  john Spear 13/09/09
  164.   #155 John Spear - Languages? 17:49  |  *BEN JABO 13/09/09
  165.   Iran`s Nukes 19:27  |  Chuck 13/09/09
  166.   Clock ticking for truth... 22:19  |  Stanley 13/09/09
  167.   neil #156 you are right to sound caution 22:24  |  Roo 13/09/09
  168.   neil #156 you are right to sound caution 01:00  |  Roo 14/09/09
  169.   Israel a proxy for the west? 02:07  |  mac daddy 14/09/09
  170.   Israel can`t do anything 02:41  |  bb 14/09/09
  171.   164 03:24  |  john Spear 14/09/09
  172.   Go for it ... 04:45  |  ragged soul 14/09/09
  173.   clock ticking for Iran 05:32  |  Eddie Edwards 14/09/09
  174.   Thank God for Fox News 07:31  |  Coach Mike 14/09/09
  175.   We have the right to exist 07:36  |  Coach Mike 14/09/09
  176.   Israel has the right to exist 07:42  |  Coach Mike 14/09/09
  177.   Time to pick a side 07:57  |  Coach Mike 14/09/09
  178.   Why would you argue with God 08:04  |  Coach Mike 14/09/09
  179.   Fight your own war. 10:18  |  David 14/09/09
  180.   #170 David - Iran also threatened Europe 17:23  |  *BEN JABO 14/09/09
  181.   Israel must warn the U.S. much in advance 22:22  |  Bohdan Szejner, STL 14/09/09
  182.   Re: # 28 "Tabasco" 11:09  |  Magend 15/09/09
  183.   Iran will not bomb Israel 01:21  |  Johnny Cage 26/09/09
  184.   truth will prevail 22:16  |  adam 26/09/09
  185.   Sorry Curious...There will be war forever! 05:02  |  cs 27/09/09
  186.   Israel Has to Do What Is In Its National Interest 05:32  |  Rick 27/09/09
  187.   iAF capabale but USAF could do this in an afternoon..... 15:09  |  r 27/09/09
  188.   TO HAARETZ 18:14  |  DANNY 27/09/09
  189.   Iranian obsession to destroy Israel 15:30  |  Keith 28/09/09
  190.   Peter #93-You are correct 02:15  |  Kipchuck 29/09/09
  191.   Foolish fools 03:23  |  Censored 29/09/09
  192.   To Ben Jabo.... 15:40  |  Silvienne 29/09/09
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15:40 ANALYSIS / Why is Israel suddenly praising Iran sanctions?
15:03 ADL slams Spain for banning West Bank scientists from contest
14:39 Polanski lawyers ask Swiss court to release director from custody
04:47 Israel ramps up efforts to block Hamas fund-raising network
11:09 Foreign diplomats to rally with Israeli Arabs marking October 2000 riots
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