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Last update - 10:05 08/09/2009
For Israel, a New Year, and a new left
By Bradley Burston
Tags: Avigdor Lieberman 

Click here for more articles by Bradley Burston

_____________________


Outside of outright wartime, seldom have the vital signs of Arab-Israeli diplomacy read more bleak. Israel's ruling coalition hinges on a foreign minister so incendiary that his recent prediction that Mideast peace is at least 16 years distant, is as close to moderation as he has yet managed. The Palestinians are rent, geographically, politically, governmentally and religiously, between the West Bank and Gaza. The Israelis are likewise torn, with a minority clinging to the settlement flag, and the majority having opted for an exhausted resignation.

Washington, meanwhile, has precious little to show for efforts to spur Arab diplomatic openness to Israel in return for self-imposed Israeli curbs on West Bank settlement expansion.

A decade of diplomatic paralysis and brutal military confrontations, coupled with a parallel degeneration of the structures and ideology of Israel's peace camp, have been accompanied by mounting calls by leftists abroad - and to a lesser degree, by leftists in Israel - to mount anti-Israel boycotts as a desperate resort amid stalled domestic Israeli efforts to combat occupation.

Is a permanently broken peace process, then, a foregone conclusion?

The fact is, there are signs that the Jewish New Year now dawning could signal the beginning of a new alignment of pro-peace forces, one that could spell fundamental progress toward an eventual two-state solution.

1.A new realism on the Israeli left

For the left in Israel to function as more than an insulated elite of the supremely self-admiring, it must take into account the realities of Israeli society, in particular those strengths which can translate into a consensus for a future peace deal. One of the more striking recent examples, one which prompted surprise and even consternation among many of Avneri's followers, is a response by veteran leftist activist Uri Avneri to Ben Gurion University Professor Neve Gordon's widely publicized call for a boycott against Israel.

While maintaining his strong opposition to occupation, Avneri takes issue with condemnations of Israel as an apartheid state, and with the anti-Israel boycotts as a political weapon.

2. Mounting restiveness in Labor and Meretz.

Another positive sign is an intensive search for new leadership to replace the bullying and the bipolar politics of Labor leader Ehud Barak, and to transfuse and transform the halting and marginal Meretz. Paradoxically, the dismal showing of the two parties in recent elections is likely to be the most effective leverage for new blood in key positions.

3. J Street and the political realignment of U.S. Jewry

For the first time in decades - in sharp contrast to a reality in which many left-oriented Jewish groups were little more than vestigial burial societies or conduits for Israeli fund-raising - a new coalition of groups which are both explicitly pro-peace and pro-Israel is beginning to coalesce, its current centerpiece the national conference of J Street in Washington DC in late October.

The gathering is being held jointly with an unprecedented number of like-minded groups, including Ameinu, Brit Tzedek V'Shalom, and the Israel Policy Forum.

J Street, which has both aided and ridden the Obama wave, is also taking steps to expand its reach and organizational clout.

Significantly, the nascent coalition also coincides with:

4. The graying of the Zionist Right

The settler revolution, and its client movements in world Orthodoxy and Israeli politics, has been falling victim to a loss of vigor at a critical time. The watershed 2005 disengagement from Gaza, which pro-settler forces point to as the best proof of their ideology, nonetheless did tremendous damage to the settlement movement's aura of invincibility. Despite the apparent one-off success of Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu [which, despite its anti-Arab rhetoric, has long flirted with out-of-the-box territorial compromise], pro-Greater Israel factions fared poorly in the 2009, with the Jewish Home winning only three votes, and the National Union only four.

Hamas' curtailing of rocket attacks [see 6., below] has, for the present at any rate, robbed the settlers of the most effective of their selling points in fending off calls for a future withdrawal in the West Bank.

One of the most telling indications of the declining vitality of the right are the shopworn, impotent mantras of the pro-settler right ["Settlements are not an obstacle to peace - there were no settlements before 1967 and there was no peace then, either"; "There is no Palestinian people"; "Jews should be able to settle anywhere in the Land of Israel (though Arabs should not)"].

This phenomenon is, in turn, a result in no small part of:

5. The new centrism in the Israeli consensus

Polls have shown that, with security guaranteed in a satisfactory manner, a majority of Israelis would accept, and in fact, support, a future two-state solution close to that proposed by the Clinton administration: A withdrawal from most of the West Bank, with exchanges of territory bringing the area of a future Palestine equal to that of the pre-1967 war West Bank and Gaza; a Palestinian capital in part of East Jerusalem; equitable administration of holy shrines; and return of refugees to Palestinian territory, with an Israeli declaration of an element of responsibility for the creation of the refugee problem.

6. A new realism among Palestinians

As Fatah has assumed greater independence and security responsibilities in the West Bank, with a commensurate resurgence of the economy in cities such as Ramallah and Jenin, it has recently signaled that some of the thorniest Israeli-Palestinian issues, including the right of return, could be worked out in the context of formulas like the Geneva Initiative.

Hamas, meanwhile, is under mounting pressure, with its polling numbers down and its problems of governance on the rise. While enforcing a near-complete and self-imposed ban on Qassam rocket attacks against Israel, with beleaguered Gazans loath to see a repeat of the war barely eight months past.

Hamas has had to contend with pressure from a new source: Islamic fundamentalists who view the Hamas government as selling out. Last month, Hamas forces attacked a mosque stronghold of the radical Warriors of God at the southern tip of Gaza, killing the group's leader and more than 20 of those inside.
Finally, and potentially most importantly, there is:

7. The Lieberman window.

Prosecutors have said that an indictment against Lieberman on graft charges is now more a matter of when than if. But the "when" could be of paramount importance. If, as some sources suggest, the charges could be filed in a matter of six months, the result could be a major redraw of the Israeli political map. Lieberman's presence in the cabinet is the main stumbling block to a coalition between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Tzipi Livni's even larger Kadima party, which is on record as pushing for a two-state solution.

Even if some Likud MKs made good on implied threats to bolt the coalition if territorial compromise were on the table, a Likud-Kadima-Labor alliance is Barack Obama's best hope for concrete progress toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace.


____________________


Follow Bradley Burston on Twitter

Previous Blogs:

This Jewish New Year, let's put an end to hope
A straight's prayer for young Israelis shot for being gay
Mr. Obama, have a talk with these Israelis, and soon
The painful cost to Israel of its settler adventure
Will Israel grant asylum to fascism?
This is what is wrong with a Jewish state
Slapping Obama, or Please God, keep Israel from making peace
Outpost Watch: Obama's future minefield - and Netanyahu's
I never thought I'd be rooting for Iran
In Iran, upheaval in the streets, but nuclear business as usual


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  1.   What does "pro-peace" mean when... 17:39  |  Jacob 07/09/09
  2.   Mr. Burston, for our Jewish survival, I hope you`re right 17:55  |  Rachel Rabin 07/09/09
  3.   Bradley, where have you been over the past weeks/months...??? 17:56  |  Swiss (Dino) 07/09/09
  4.   Maybe Israel will get tired of the far right too 18:04  |  American 07/09/09
  5.   "The Left" is not equal to "Peace Movement" 18:13  |  Eitan 07/09/09
  6.   Damage done by the left 18:17  |  former meretz 07/09/09
  7.   #1 Jacob, you are absolutely right....but 18:58  |  Nora Tel Aviv 07/09/09
  8.   The left has pushed events to the right. 19:05  |  Israeli citizen 07/09/09
  9.   Peace and the Left 19:26  |  Pupik 07/09/09
  10.   "a Likud-Kadima-Labor alliance " 19:39  |  Yonatan 07/09/09
  11.   Bradley... 19:59  |  Yosemite 07/09/09
  12.   To achieve peace one needs two sides ready for it. I am yet to 20:22  |  Eitan 07/09/09
  13.   to former meretz #6 20:31  |  zeev 07/09/09
  14.   Israeli peacniks not a concern.There is no Arab peace camp. 21:24  |  Sam 07/09/09
  15.   Palastinian "new realism" 21:30  |  broxnite10 07/09/09
  16.   Willows and Oaks 21:30  |  HPL 07/09/09
  17.   To the insulated elite of the supremely self-admiring 22:47  |  Fish 07/09/09
  18.   Mr. Burston..... I have missed your writings 23:20  |  Lynn 07/09/09
  19.   #8 Israeli citizen....it`s happening the same way 23:24  |  Lynn 07/09/09
  20.   Left , alone & forlorn 00:23  |  The Teacher/Instruct 08/09/09
  21.   something fishy 00:30  |  arieh zimmerman 08/09/09
  22.   Author is wrong 01:32  |  Zionist 08/09/09
  23.   I can only hope Mr. Burston is right 01:54  |  Mark Lincoln 08/09/09
  24.   to Pupik #9 02:02  |  zeev 08/09/09
  25.   Analysis sucked out of Bradley`s tumb 02:02  |  Boris 08/09/09
  26.   Sam....arab peace camp 03:03  |  John 08/09/09
  27.   Peace=The sound of one hand clapping 03:18  |  JD 08/09/09
  28.   a new left and more danger for Israel 03:47  |  Connie 08/09/09
  29.   Fatah and Hamas have given Israel plenty of chances for peace 04:56  |  Marc Leb 08/09/09
  30.   Bradley, Blinded by hindsight? 05:13  |  netsp 08/09/09
  31.   What Do You Think Bradley? 05:49  |  Yosemite 08/09/09
  32.   The "good German` speaks 06:36  |  Mark Lincoln 08/09/09
  33.   Here`s A Positive Prediction... 07:30  |  Yosemite 08/09/09
  34.   Sorry, Brad. Left wing simply reorganizing its own funeral 07:50  |  Joe Sittizen 08/09/09
  35.   kadima, Labour Likud coalition is a fantasy & Obama weakens left 08:08  |  zionist forever 08/09/09
  36.   Mark Lincoln And His "Good Germans"... 08:09  |  Yosemite 08/09/09
  37.   as usual the left exits in a 08:43  |  joe 08/09/09
  38.   burtson and the misuse of language like so many others 09:04  |  v hardman 08/09/09
  39.   Israel Topples Arabians Hypocrites 09:54  |  Mursal Mahmud 08/09/09
  40.   John,Marc Leb- What`s peace to you? To Arabs+Palestinians? 10:06  |  Sam 08/09/09
  41.   The good Burston is too wordy... 10:13  |  Esther 08/09/09
  42.   LEFTIST Rhetoric plus suicide bombers during Rabin period turned 10:24  |  PETER SM 08/09/09
  43.   #31, Mark Lincoln and his "master race" 10:45  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/09/09
  44.   Fantasies of Brad the mad 11:22  |  Chaim Ben Kahan 08/09/09
  45.   relativity 12:12  |  shimi 08/09/09
  46.   to Jacob #1 - 5th try 13:19  |  zeev 08/09/09
  47.   OMG Lincoln 13:42  |  Peter Williams 08/09/09
  48.   So long as Tibi and Bargouti are closer to Oron than his prime 14:28  |  Gil 08/09/09
  49.   Too late? 20:34  |  Grape Nuts 08/09/09
  50.   Burston`s point #5 centrism approach will bring peace 20:58  |  Smadar 08/09/09
  51.   Burston`s point #5 centrism approach will bring peace 20:58  |  Smadar 08/09/09
  52.   #24 Zeev 00:26  |  Pupik 09/09/09
  53.   "Peace", sure! Capitulation, NO! 00:36  |  RfaelMoshe 09/09/09
  54.   #20 Teacher....like Burston said, just too elite 02:39  |  Lynn 09/09/09
  55.   new left 03:45  |  JimUSA 09/09/09
  56.   Yes: A New Left 04:32  |  Jasper 09/09/09
  57.   Buston`s point #5 - "security guarantee" 05:36  |  Thomas Roth 09/09/09
  58.   to netsp #30 - 4th try 19:32  |  zeev 10/09/09
  59.   to Pupik #52 11:09  |  zeev 12/09/09
  60.   Zeev #59 Historical Arab Intransigence Had Nothing To Do With It? 00:47  |  Tim R 14/09/09
  61.   Zeev #59 Historical Arab Intransigence Had Nothing To Do With It? 10:56  |  Tim R 14/09/09
  62.   to Tim R #61 - 2nd try 17:15  |  zeev 16/09/09
  63.   Same old toxic left in a new package. Nobody is fooled. 18:31  |  Chaim 18/09/09
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