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Last update - 17:12 07/09/2009
Can a U.S.-Israel deal on settlements stop the settlers?
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: West Bank, Barack Obama 

So? Did the Americans know in advance about Israel's intention to authorize 500 more housing units in the West Bank? And how long will the freeze - the temporary limitations on construction - last?

These are the main questions everyone is focused on, given the understandings reached between the U.S. and Israel.

The focus of the discussion is on points scored in the Obama-Netanyahu duel, but that is missing the point: will the agreement achieve its declared goal, which for the Americans means stopping construction, or at least substantially curtailing it?
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The answer taking shape appears to be that it is possible, but only partially so - and that the freeze will be felt in the settlement blocks, those large settlements that are mostly to the west of the separation fence and are expected to remain part of Israel if there is ever an agreement.

On the other hand, in the wild east, on the ridge of the mountain, the land of the outposts, the chances for real enforcement of a freeze appear to be minimal.

To a great extent it can be argued that it is there, deep in the territories, where the real story lies.

That is where the dispute is substantive, and there are efforts to establish new facts on the ground, one dunam at a time.

Over the past decade, the settlers have been using the outposts to gradually expand the territory under their control, due to the state's lack of control and minimal enforcement.

It is hard to believe that this will change, just because President Barack Obama wants it to.

The various governments have never seriously sought to enforce the law with regard to the outposts. Looking at this effort over time, we find that the steps, from 1999 (Havat Ma'on) to 2006 (Amona), have been limited, and all the while the gradual annexation continued.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows his control over the land of outposts is flimsy. He is not the one who will decide how many caravans will be placed on hill 725, or how many Palestinian orchards will be uprooted near Yitzhar.

A senior defense official told Haaretz: "Israeli law was never applied in these areas. Let us presume that the Civil Administration identifies more building violations at an outpost. What will they do? They will stick another warrant on the caravan wall, asking them to get out. They will not even bother ripping it down, and they will just go on with their business."

If this has been the attitude of the outpost residents, it can be expected only to get worse when the freeze goes into effect. If the settlers believe they have lost this round, they have no reason to play by the rules. As for the settlement blocks, the situation is different: the projects are large and involve huge investments and major contractors. They cannot build without state permission; without, they risk serious losses.

Thus the absurdity: In Beitar Ilit, which will stay under Israeli control, construction will cease.

But in Mitzpeh Yitzhar and the agricultural lands nearby, business will go on as usual, even though the settlers' success there will mean a death blow to the two-state solution - which Netanyahu was forced to back during his speech at Bar-Ilan University.

The Americans will know what is happening; they don't miss much between the satellites and CNN. What they do miss will be filled in by Peace Now and its associate organizations.

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      1.   Israeli Hypocrisy and Settlements 06:17  |  Raphael 07/09/09
      2.   Such nonsense, Harel. 06:19  |  Johnboy 07/09/09
      3.   Two simple facts 06:25  |  Mark Lincoln 07/09/09
      4.   How can I claim Europe supports the Settlers? 06:27  |  Mark Lincoln 07/09/09
      5.   Sighing with frustration... 06:46  |  Haaretz Fan 07/09/09
      6.   Shhh! Do the Americans know? 07:01  |  Jim 07/09/09
      7.   Mark Lincoln, you are right 07:37  |  Yesh Prabhu 07/09/09
      8.   A well reasoned and well written column 07:56  |  Yesh Prabhu 07/09/09
      9.   #3 Mark Lincoln 08:03  |  Jim 07/09/09
      10.   Exactly Johnboy 08:03  |  arik 07/09/09
      11.   #4 Mark Lincoln 08:08  |  Jim 07/09/09
      12.   It all depends on the Israeli enforcers... 08:25  |  Esther 07/09/09
      13.   Look no futher than some USA Jews who pour a fortune... 08:38  |  Esther 07/09/09
      14.   There will never be peace until 09:21  |  kiwi girl 07/09/09
      15.   Palestinians support the settlers 09:31  |  Jochai Rubinstein 07/09/09
      16.   Obama and Bantusteins 10:39  |  Justine Effort 07/09/09
      17.   The Bi-National state is already here 10:42  |  Justine Effort 07/09/09
      18.   Haaretz Fan, #5, you are right 10:52  |  Yesh Prabhu 07/09/09
      19.   Jochai #15 10:58  |  Esther 07/09/09
      20.   We will lose the Galilee and the Negev 11:18  |  Yonatan 07/09/09
      21.   #12 Esther - no hope of dismantling 11:24  |  Yonatan 07/09/09
      22.   What limitations? 11:46  |  Colin Wright 07/09/09
      23.   Most Jews will care little if settlers settle or not 12:13  |  Sam 07/09/09
      24.   #17 Kris Lazar the Austrian 12:32  |  Yonatan 07/09/09
      25.   Oh yeah Jochai... 12:34  |  Mike Friedman 07/09/09
      26.   #23 Sam - I`m sorry to say 12:36  |  Yonatan 07/09/09
      27.   Johnboy so freezing is punishment then? 12:46  |  Peter Williams 07/09/09
      28.   Yonatan #21... believe me, I have had thoughts just like yours... 12:55  |  Esther 07/09/09
      29.   A thought-provoking article indeed 14:03  |  r cummings 07/09/09
      30.   both are right. 14:25  |  elsie 07/09/09
      31.   # 25 peter 14:29  |  Axel 07/09/09
      32.   Jochai Rubinstein - in your dreams 14:42  |  CJ 07/09/09
      33.   Mike Friedman - Jochai know exactly how it works - Deut 20:19 14:50  |  CJ 07/09/09
      34.   Yonatan-My sister lives nearby in Petach Tikva 15:03  |  Sam 07/09/09
      35.   TRUST 15:38  |  OZ 07/09/09
      36.   Israel can control Palestinians but not settlers?? 15:50  |  Ramzi Jaber 07/09/09
      37.   "APPROPRIATED" land, Esther?? 15:58  |  yona 07/09/09
      38.   "APPROPRIATED" land, Esther?? 15:58  |  yona 07/09/09
      39.   don`t worry 16:21  |  udi 07/09/09
      40.   Keeping them in jail would stop them. 16:31  |  jens 07/09/09
      41.   Can and Should 16:56  |  Vladek 07/09/09
      42.   The Toronto film festival 17:25  |  steve from raleigh 07/09/09
      43.   yona (#37/38) - You`re dead WRONG!!! 18:25  |  Ramzi Jaber 07/09/09
      44.   It Could If Israel Was Honorable 18:46  |  Ed 07/09/09
      45.   37/38/ Yona - WRONG under Int`l & ISRAELI Law 19:22  |  Mark of Lewiston 07/09/09
      46.   Pardon the roadblocks, Ramzi 19:31  |  yona 07/09/09
      47.   Ramzi 19:38  |  yona 07/09/09
      48.   yona (#46) - you live in la-la land, stand in my shoes for 1 day 19:50  |  Ramzi Jaber 07/09/09
      49.   yona (#47), there you go again using bible as real-estate guide 19:54  |  Ramzi Jaber 07/09/09
      50.   Settler movement 19:54  |  American 07/09/09
      51.   I`m born here, Ramzi 20:16  |  yona 07/09/09
      52.   Mark Lincoln 1. you were right on Obama 2. Have explanation? 21:35  |  Mark B. 07/09/09
      53.   Easy solution 22:01  |  Rozanna 07/09/09
      54.   RAMZI JABER and FRIENDS 22:15  |  TOBIA 07/09/09
      55.   Ramzi Jaber 00:09  |  Jasper 08/09/09
      56.   #27 No, Peter, it is Bibi`s INCENTIVE 00:54  |  Johnboy 08/09/09
      57.   Peace 01:34  |  daat y 08/09/09
      58.   Why stay there and suffer so much, Ramzi? 02:18  |  Sean 08/09/09
      59.   Axel why are settlements an impediment to peace? 03:59  |  Peter Williams 08/09/09
      60.   PN gets the stats, but settlers get the electricity 05:06  |  Shelley 08/09/09
      61.   No deal possible without aid cut 07:16  |  Antonius 08/09/09
      62.   #57 Peter Williams shows that He Has No Idea. 09:03  |  Johnboy 08/09/09
      63.   The settlements will stop... 17:43  |  Alyssa 08/09/09
      64.   Peace #57 Daaty 05:23  |  Ron 09/09/09
      65.   Peace #57 Daaty 00:18  |  Ron 10/09/09
      66.   to Peter Williams #59 - 5th try 22:33  |  zeev 12/09/09
      67.   Should the U.S. even be meddling in the Settlements? 03:21  |  Bob 21/09/09
      68.   To Bob from Dayton 01:57  |  Dean 15/11/09
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