Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., July 29, 2009 Av 8, 5769 | | Israel Time: 01:42 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Maccabiah Travel Week's End Anglo File
Share |
'Israel is on the right track'
By Tal Levy
Tags: Financial Crisis, Israel News

Faced by increasing numbers of positive economic indicators, analysts are starting to agree that Israel's economy has bottomed out.

"We're on the right track. We may have even passed the turning point," said Ayelet Nir, chief economist of Tel Aviv brokerage IBI, yesterday.

A year ago a statement like that would have evoked a bitter snort. Yet less than a year after Lehman Bros. collapsed with a roar heard around the world, macro analysts are smiling anew. Gil Bufman, chief economist of Bank Leumi, concurs with Nir, and adds, "It seems we're making the turn earlier than other countries."
Advertisement
Michael Sarel, the alpha economist at Harel Insurance and Finance, thinks rock-bottom may prove to have been in the third quarter of 2008.

The Bank of Israel is also evincing cautious optimism. In its interest rate announcement yesterday, it wrote, "Indicators and data that became available during the last month support the assessment that the decline in real activity slowed or even halted in the second quarter."

A lot of positive indicators have piled up in recent weeks. Standard & Poor's maintained Israel's credit rating at A/Stable. The Bank of Israel's composite index of indicators rose by 0.2% in June, its first gain after 10 months in retreat. The steepest drop had been in January 2009, when the index, which tracks the state of the economy, fell by 1.7%.

In its quarterly Companies Review, covering 530 companies, the central bank expressed its sense that the pace of decline in business activity slowed in the second quarter compared with the preceding six months.

Bank Hapoalim's index of purchasing managers surged by 9.5% in June, rising to 52.1%. It was the first time in 14 months that the index had risen above 50%, the break-even point between economic contraction and expansion.

Import of goods increased by 3.7% in June, after a year of contraction.

Moving onto the real estate market, we find an increase of 2% to 5% in home prices around the country, compared with price levels six months ago, and a substantial increase in the number of transactions.

Consumer confidence seems to be waxing as well. On Sunday the Central Bureau of Statistics reported that credit card purchases by private consumers had increased by 9.5% from April to June, in annualized terms, after rising 7.3% in the preceding three months. A few days before, the bureau had announced that retail sales had jumped by 5.1% between April and June, in annualized terms.

A host of companies are returning from 4-day to 5-day weeks, including software company Amdocs, blades maker Iscar, Keter Plastics, high-tech company Numonyx and hotel firm Isrotel.

Of course, the biggest story was stocks. After a horrible time in 2008, when Israeli stocks lost 46% of their value, investors have sent the benchmark TA-25 index climbing 44% this year. The TA-100 index is up 55% this year, after losing 51% last year.

Bufman begs to note that the economy contracted by 3.7% in the first quarter of 2009, in annualized terms, and is expected to have contracted by 2% in the second quarter. But he expects an upswing in the second half of the year, with positive growth in the third quarter and almost 2% in the fourth.
PROMOTION: Mamilla Hotel
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
'Bruno' security threat
Palestinian group threatens to respond to its inclusion in Sacha Baron Cohen's new film.
Nasser vs. Sadat
Egypt police raid home of Gamal Abdel Nasser's daughter over defamation of Sadat.
Special Offers
Advertisement
hotel Jerusalem
David Citadel Hotel, come stay at the finest of Jerusalem hotels.
Dead Sea Cosmetics .Summer Specials
Velvet Hand Cream just $14.90
Handmade In Tel Aviv
Itay Noy, Timepiece Maker
ISRAEL ARMY SURPLUS STORE
IDF insignia,Uniforms, Paladium Boots Watches, Israel Army T-shirts & Collectibles
Dead Sea Salt Beauty and skin care
From the Dead Sea Coupon cofe Haaretz for 10% off!
Eldan Rent a Car
Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on online reservations
Junkyard
Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
More Headlines
22:01 Netanyahu: Gazans want to overthrow Hamas
20:33 Report: Lebanon army raises alert along border with Israel
22:25 Israel, U.S. claim 'progress' in settlement dispute
23:48 Israel pays NIS 3.25 million to protester shot by Border Police
19:33 UN: Israel must allow building supplies into Gaza
18:38 Nasser vs. Sadat - the female version
20:52 UN orders Iranian to give up Facebook Web domain
00:15 WATCH: Daily news round-up from Israel
15:33 U.S. charges 7 with plotting terror attacks in Israel
20:05 German-Jewish high jumper reflects on career cut short by Nazis
19:38 Psychiatrist retracts conclusion suspected 'starving mother' isn't dangerous
21:22 Palestinian group threatens 'Bruno' star Sacha Baron Cohen
Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Site rules |
| Israel 2009 election results | Makom: Engaging on Israel
| Search engine marketing
Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved