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U.S. President Barack Obama making landmark Middle East speech in Cairo earlier this month.
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Last update - 00:42 01/01/2009
Obama should play on Israel's fears, not its hopes for peace
By Akiva Eldar
Tags: settlements, palestinians 

It is both interesting and strange that the very same people who complain about what they believe to be U.S. President Barack Obama's excessive support for the Palestinian struggle for liberation from the yoke of Israeli rule also attack him for what they perceive as his soft stance on the internal Iranian struggle against the incumbent regime. What was Benjamin Netanyahu trying to gain in leaking to Maariv that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi told him that even Hillary Clinton is opposed to the president's weak stance on the Iranian regime? Was he trying to make Obama understand, once and for all, that the only language understood in the Middle East is one of force and fear?

To be honest, when it comes to the Israeli government, Washington has received the message, loud and clear. The Americans understand that Israel did not voluntarily compromise on "natural growth" in the settlements. And what has changed in the West Bank, allowing for the sudden removal of dozens of roadblocks and the evacuation of more Palestinian cities?

White House officials know what became of the promises previous Israeli governments gave to former president George W. Bush and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on plans to alleviate the hardships of Palestinian civilians. They were able to locate the transcripts, while they were (desperately and unsuccessfully) looking for documents to prove earlier "understandings" on natural growth.
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A new study by Prof. Daniel Bar-Tal of Tel Aviv University and Dr. Eran Halperin of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya shows that fear is one of the obstacles preventing the spread of alternative beliefs on resolving conflicts by peaceful means. Such obstacles develop through a selective and distorted processing of information aimed at preserving conflict-beliefs. Take, for example, the belief that "time is on our side." By contrast, the two researchers found that only a small minority of Israelis evaluate the conflict through the ethical lenses of justice and morality.

The researchers therefore assumed that the only way to open Israelis to compromise was to present them with the heavy price they are now paying - and will pay in the future - as a result of their refusal to compromise. This conclusion parallels the findings of Nobel Prize laureate Prof. Daniel Kahneman and the late Prof. Amos Tversky, who assert that people are primarily influenced by fear of losing their assets, rather than the hope for a future profit.

In their research, Bar-Tal and Halperin found that people who were exposed to a scenario emphasizing the price Israel might have to pay for allowing the conflict to continue were more willing to accept new information and compromise, in comparison to those exposed to a scenario based on the fruits of peace. While positive prognoses on the future of Israel and the Middle East did not result in a change of attitude, information on the losses Israel can expect unless a peace agreement is signed soon intensified the wish of those surveyed to consider alternative solutions to the conflict.

Detailed explanations on the economic ramifications of a failure to resolve the conflict, or demonstrations on a possible Arab shift toward supporting a binational state led many people to realize that "time is not on our side" and that the cost of a future peace may exceed that of peace today.

Since the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, the fear of "terror now" has silenced the public discourse on "peace now." In the absence of an effective left, there is no agent in Israel able to convince the public of the urgent need for change, and to outline the heavy cost of perpetuating the conflict. Israel's right has entered this enormous void and filled it with alternative fears: It points to Hamastan at Jerusalem's gates and expresses fear in the face of the right of return and horror at Barack Hussein Obama. (Incidentally, how many Israeli politicians knew the middle names of Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush and his son?).

Leaders of the international community and the Arab world are the only ones capable of convincing the average Israeli that only a "sucker" would miss out on the great opportunity for a Jewish state within the improved 1967 borders, on resolving the bulk of the Palestinian refugee problem, ensuring normalization with the Arab world and receiving security guarantees from the West. Obama appealed directly to the Muslim umma, bypassing the radical Islamists; the time has come for him to directly address the Israelis, bypassing their leadership. In doing so, it would be best to first present them with the cost of refusal, before Netanyahu manages to convince them that Obama is not a partner.

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      1.   Good, well documented article. 00:43  |  Fortuna Benmayor 01/01/09
      2.   Blatantly Inciting Terrorism 00:00  |  UsedToPostHere 01/01/09
      3.   Can`t see the forest for the trees? Here is some help. 00:54  |  Natallie Durson 01/01/09
      4.   The Arabs will come looking for you one day 00:03  |  Gilad4 01/01/09
      5.   Events are now dependent more on Iran, than Obama 00:06  |  Ghazia Harj 01/01/09
      6.   The decision was made in January 00:07  |  Mark Lincoln 01/01/09
      7.   The Cost of refusal for peace? 00:32  |  Marco 01/01/09
      8.   This article is treasonous- literally 00:56  |  Dani 01/01/09
      9.   Exactly so. 00:05  |  Johnboy 01/01/09
      10.   The strength of democracy. 00:12  |  Lane 01/01/09
      11.   Peace : Obama addressing the Israeli public 00:13  |  DT 01/01/09
      12.   Obma =Bush 00:52  |  Angry Arab - As`ad 01/01/09
      13.   Peace is bad for Israel 00:29  |  Andrew Hamilton 01/01/09
      14.   Fine and Dandy - RE: Israel`s Peace Now`s Relatvie Silence 00:55  |  Eli Wapniarski 01/01/09
      15.   NO need. The government of Palestine makes its position clear 00:30  |  PETER SM 01/01/09
      16.   Can president O-bamias guarantee peace for Israel? 00:44  |  Hastaroth 01/01/09
      17.   Peace 00:49  |  fredyr 01/01/09
      18.   Trust 00:04  |  Stu 01/01/09
      19.   #12 - what exactly did you expect Obama to do? 00:09  |  redbourn 01/01/09
      20.   to Akiva Eldar re Obama and peace 00:10  |  GA 01/01/09
      21.   Absolutely Critical That Muslims And Jews Be Friends... 00:15  |  Yosemite 01/01/09
      22.   "Obama appealed directly to the Muslim umma" 00:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 01/01/09
      23.   How do you frighten the Palestinians into wanting Peace? 00:37  |  Steve Goodman 01/01/09
      24.   How do you frighten the Palestinians into wanting Peace? 00:41  |  Steve Goodman 01/01/09
      25.   # 16 Hastaroth Can president O-bamias guarantee peace for Israel? 00:30  |  Traude 01/01/09
      26.   Psm and Nobel Laureates. 00:20  |  zero tolerance 01/01/09
      27.   Eldar will not learn realities of ME unless subjected to fear 00:45  |  Eve 01/01/09
      28.   Mr. Akiva Eldar`s Fear Mongering 00:17  |  Jeff Northridge 01/01/09
      29.   A question to Akiva Eldar 00:23  |  Avraham 01/01/09
      30.   obama is a rookie and will soon learn the errors of his ways 00:25  |  Joe Frazier 01/01/09
      31.   Hutzpah 00:42  |  Purple Canary 01/01/09
      32.   Playing on fear 00:42  |  oz 01/01/09
      33.   Only a "sucker" would refuse this opportunity... 00:46  |  Zeev 01/01/09
      34.   Obamas doing a fine job 00:47  |  Ronnie Wolman 01/01/09
      35.   I almost forgot 00:54  |  patriot 01/01/09
      36.   fear 00:09  |  oz 01/01/09
      37.   the biggest problem from day 1 has been the use of timetables 00:22  |  zionist forever 01/01/09
      38.   Yes, but... 00:27  |  Purple Canary 01/01/09
      39.   Details & data 00:32  |  Jimmy 01/01/09
      40.   The Obama/Clinton disaster 00:36  |  Christopher 01/01/09
      41.   More nonsense from Eldar 00:07  |  howiej 01/01/09
      42.   I will give you fear 00:35  |  GaileeHero 01/01/09
      43.   Nonesense 00:41  |  arik 01/01/09
      44.   Lebanese: What do you want from Obama? 00:44  |  Anonymous 01/01/09
      45.   Eldar: "raping my country will not do, please DESTROY my country" 00:04  |  Nemesis 01/01/09
      46.   Akiva and Obama`s counter spin.... 00:32  |  Dutch 01/01/09
      47.   SO NOW WE KNOW 00:50  |  EHUD 01/01/09
      48.   #46 doris cardigan knows where to find honest peoiple 00:09  |  v hardman 01/01/09
      49.   "Your money or your life." Jack Benny,"I`m thinking, I`m thinkin 00:33  |  Lou Medel 01/01/09
      50.   Israel fears peace 00:40  |  John 01/01/09
      51.   leftists seek to align with foreigners to punish israel 00:06  |  bernard ross 01/01/09
      52.   Mr Akiva Eldar, reserve your cognitive bullshit for yourself 00:25  |  Marco Mauas 01/01/09
      53.   More Advice from Know-nothing Pundit 00:32  |  Jane 01/01/09
      54.   fearless 00:42  |  oz 01/01/09
      55.   Jane Palm Beach and Obama`s "wise decisions" 00:22  |  Arie 01/01/09
      56.   AKIVA 00:47  |  OZ 01/01/09
      57.   Arie - You Have Slanted Vision 00:48  |  Jane 01/01/09
      58.   Obama/Clinton attacks 9/11 survivors 00:56  |  Christopher 01/01/09
      59.   Obama 00:35  |  oz 01/01/09
      60.   Jane in Palm Beach: You need a reality check 00:45  |  Arie 01/01/09
      61.   Arie - Metuscal Much? 00:43  |  Jane 01/01/09
      62.   #60 Arie busy making more enemies 00:16  |  Labhras 01/01/09
      63.   Fears 00:23  |  Amazed 01/01/09
      64.   Cipora why do you bother with the same tripe day after day? 00:04  |  BBSNews 01/01/09
      65.   Obama should play on Israel`s fears... 00:08  |  Brutus Balan 01/01/09
      66.   Steve Goodman, it has nothing to do with a Jewish State... 00:11  |  BBSNews 01/01/09
      67.   Jane Arie is clearly delusional and frightened... 00:21  |  BBSNews 01/01/09
      68.   The US President does not rule by decree... 00:26  |  BBSNews 01/01/09
      69.   BBSkkk has been singed by too many cross burnings 00:58  |  Arie 01/01/09
      70.   labhras and enemies 00:02  |  Arie 01/01/09
      71.   53 jane, I pity your efforts to put down the Israeli left 00:39  |  Dutch 01/01/09
      72.   69 Jane, P.S. 00:06  |  Dutch 01/01/09
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