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ANALYSIS / No one truly knows how the protests in Iran will end
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Intelligence, Israel News 

A perusal of newspaper headlines this week may lead the reader to the mistaken conclusion that the revolution has already occured. Indeed, a revolution in Iran is an old Israeli hope. For Israel, the end of the ayatollahs' regime could be seen as belated compensation for the downfall of the friendly regime of the shah exactly 30 years ago. More importantly, Israel harbors the hope - not necessarily well-founded - that the Iranian nuclear program could still be checked without an aerial attack, Israeli or American. In 2003, then-chief of staff Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon said in an interview with Haaretz that "conditions have ripened for a revolution in Iran."

It's still hard to anticipate how the wave of riots sweeping Iran - due to claims of election fraud after incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's alleged victory - will end. Most Israeli experts, academics and intelligence officials are not rushing to risk a prediction. The only one who has done so is Mossad chief Meir Dagan. On Tuesday, when he appeared before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, he stated in his typically emphatic manner that the unrest would end within a few days.


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ifferent circles in the local intelligence community are viewing the events differently. At the moment, it is hard to find an expert willing to bet the clash will end with the regime's downfall. This is not only due to a lack of information; it is doubtful whether the Iranians themselves know how things will end. "Nations do not always behave in a straightforward way," remarks one intelligence source.

Intelligence reports received by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee indicate the regime is strong enough to survive the current upheaval. The election was fraudulent, but possibly not to the extent described in the Western media. Dagan even claimed, to the surprise of his listeners, that the Iranians had the same percentage of illegal ballots as in liberal democratic elections. Currently, no Western intelligence group has any definite proof of the extent of the fraud.

The regime's agreement to conduct a recount in some of the election districts is seen as a compromise designed to buy time and to calm the atmosphere; it does not constitute a real surrender. The Revolutionary Guards, one of Ahmadinejad's mainstays, has not been completely brought into the fray, but the security forces are suppressing some of the rallies violently.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Aharon Ze'evi Farkash, former head of Military Intelligence, said this week that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made a serious mistake in underestimating the scope of the rioting. The government will have to implement "significant changes" to reduce the damage, said Farkash. On the other hand, the ayatollahs and their followers have years of experience in amazingly efficient suppression of unrest, not to mention a built-in advantage: They know exactly how things look from the other side of the barricades. The previous revolution in Iran was, after all, their work.

The MKs heard that the regime is in a very uncomfortable situation, but far from collapse. Ahmadinejad's decision to visit Moscow midweek, in spite of the huge demonstrations by supporters of his moderate opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate control, almost complacency. But the president had important reasons for meeting the Russians: One was apparently an attempt to convince Moscow to implement a deal, agreed on in principle several years ago, to supply the Iranians with advanced SE-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries.

Aiming for results

Toward the end of the week, Israeli officials were discussing the Iranian protest's momentum. So far, there are no signs it is waning: On the contrary, rioting has spread throughout the country, with demonstrations in most of the major cities. The brave step by the Iranian national soccer team's players, who entered the playing field during the World Cup qualifier against South Korea wearing green armbands (signifying solidarity with the protesters), imbued the struggle a dramatic, graphic image.

Apparently, the moderate conservatives, along with the reformists, are trying to pull strings behind the scenes. Mousavi, and former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are trying to translate the anger into political results. Rafsanjani also has a personal agenda: to return to a position of influence after being ousted by Khamenei and his followers. The members of the more moderate camp, who would be happy to see Ahmadinejad leave the government, are being cautious about a public clash with Khamenei, and are focusing on a demand for new elections. On the other hand, conservative and ultra-conservative forces are organizing behind Ahmadinejad - although they don't support him wholeheartedly.

The quality of Israeli forecasts on Iran is liable to be somewhat overshadowed by the serious tension between the Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces General Staff intelligence division, due to a professional dispute on another issue; Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Mossad Chief Dagan met recently to discuss this and ease the tension. As far as is known, they achieved relative success after addressing the problem of communications between Ashkenazi and Dagan, but did not deal with the same problem between the chief of the Mossad and MI head Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin.

Not only was Western intelligence surprised by the intensity of the protests in Iran. Even the regime itself was surprised, although its senior members have been obsessing for some time over fears of a "velvet revolution," such as those in the Czech Republic or Ukraine.

Khamenei met this week with the four presidential candidates and called for national unity. In attempting to calm the atmosphere, he told them they were "all his sons" - i.e., the sons of the revolution. Khameini - Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's heir since 1989, and a cleric whose word is law in Iran - also announced that he had instructed the chairman of the Council of Guardians, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, to examine the claims of election fraud.

In any case, we can confidently assume that the regime will not announce that Ahmadinejad actually lost. The more pressing question is whether, beyond his involvement the present protest, Mousavi is capable of leading a move to change the regime. It's not only a matter of the balance of power: He is the flesh and blood of the Islamic Republic.

As opposed to the 1979 revolution, the protest camp lacks a "rebel" - a reformist, a charismatic figure like Khomeini, who specifically challenged the shah's government and demanded it be replaced. On Wednesday afternoon Mousavi took an important step when he publicly called for mass demonstrations yesterday, in spite of police opposition. When the violent demonstrations against the shah began, about a year before the revolution, almost nobody believed the result would be an Islamic regime. At first the shah was hesitant to exercise too much force, but when he did, it was too late. This time the government clearly is prepared to take a tough stance, due to its members concern that their future is in danger.

Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a cleric close to Ahmadinejad, said during the 1999 demonstrations, "Islam is not a forgiving and conciliatory religion," and he issued a call to "uproot the weeds by the sword."

In Iran of 1979 the funerals of those killed in the demonstrations became a focus of unrest, which was followed by more casualties and more violent protests. The current regime apparently learned the lesson and is trying to prevent mass funerals for protesters. The reformists are satisfied with symbolic demonstrations of mourning.

"In the final analysis, the leaders of the demonstrations today are children of the Islamic Revolution," says Prof. David Menashri of Tel Aviv University. "They are seeking another path, but not the downfall of the current regime. These are problems 'in the family.' We must also recall that Khomeini kept himself above factionalism and camps. The present leadership is tainted by these ills. Khamenei is identified with Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani with Mousavi. The problem of the reformists, many of whom are part of the government institutions, is that the opposition movement is currently stronger than its leader, Mousavi."

Beyond the soccer players, the most prominent aspect of the protest has been the use of technology to bypass the government: The current revolution is not being broadcast on television, but it is disseminating itself on Twitter. The regime can confine local media and forbid foreign correspondents from into the street, but its efforts to stop the transmission of text messages and block blogs and Web sites identified with the reformists have been only partially successful.

The centrifuges spin

Israel is particularly interested in how Iran's crisis will affect its nuclear project. If the regime overcomes the unrest, this may be used as an excuse to postpone dialogue with the United States. Any time that Iran gains as a result will be critical to advancing its nuclear program. On the other hand, the riots are eroding the last vestiges of the regime's international legitimacy. Iran has until now hidden behind a quasi-democratic mask. The strong suspicion of election fraud and the violent suppression of the protests are wearing down American and European patience. In exceptional circumstances, this could lead Tehran to a more moderate approach regarding the nuclear question, but in any scenario - and any regime - it is hard to see the Iranians giving up what they consider a strategic goal.

The second part of the Mossad leader's Knesset address this week also aroused numerous reactions. Dagan spoke about the new target date for the Iranian nuclear project: 2014. In effect, as we wrote here about two months ago, the gaps between the Israeli and American intelligence assessments are smaller than they seem, and stem mainly from a difference in definitions. The U.S. has chosen to emphasize the later date (the capability to install a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile, 2015), while Israel has focused on an earlier one (the capability to detonate a nuclear device, 2010-2011). The change in the Israeli assessment is due to a decision to focus on the more distant goal.

Dagan's words suit the more sober and cautious policy toward Iran that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conveyed in his speech at Bar-Ilan University on Sunday. The two men's declarations are the result of clear messages from the U.S. administration. Israel's need to maintain silence is becoming only more acute in light of Iran's internal crisis. The last thing Iran's reformist camp needs now is public encouragement from Jerusalem or Washington. Meanwhile, U.S. President Barack Obama is being careful in this respect. This week he mentioned the historical precedent (the overthrow of the Mossadegh government in Iran in 1953, with CIA help), in order to explain the need for American restraint.

If Israel can understand the president's current policy toward Iran, it is having trouble doing so regarding North Korea. This week, at a discussion in the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, Ze'evi Farkash described the "total impotence" of the Americans in the face of Pyongyang's provocations. There is "tremendous significance to Obama's failure" in the Iranian nuclear context as well, he said.

During that same discussion, Sima Shein, a former senior member of the National Security Council and the Mossad, said that in the past four years, the Iranians have chalked up an amazing success in advancing their nuclear program. "They are showing contempt for everyone, they haven't retreated and they haven't relinquished anything. Tehran is making it clear to Obama: We won't even talk about the nuclear program with you," she said.



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