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Last update - 09:06 14/06/2009
ANALYSIS / Obama will decide how good Netanyahu speech is
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: peace process 

The U.S. president was furious over Israel's stubborn negotiating stance and wrote a harsh letter to the prime minister. Israel is endangering peace, the president warned, and if it continued to reject friendly counsel, the U.S. government would have to reassess its position on Israel.

The president was Harry Truman, the prime minister - David Ben-Gurion. The dispute was over Israel's refusal to take back Palestinian refugees after the War of Independence. At the heart of the American-led reconciliation conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, was the Arab demand for the refugees' return.

Israel did not want the refugees back, but neither did it want a crisis with the United States. The foreign minister at the time, Moshe Sharett, persuaded Ben-Gurion to throw the Americans a bone: Israel would announce its willingness to take back 100,000 refugees in return for full peace. If the Arabs refused, as expected, they would be blamed for the talks' failure. Israel had made clear this was a final offer, but Sharett was worried that the United States would not be satisfied.
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Seeking to show how difficult this offer would be politically in Israel, Ben-Gurion and Sharett brought it to the Knesset for debate, making it public after conveying it to the Americans. Sharett instructed lawmakers from the ruling party to oppose the offer. The show was flawless: Speakers from both the coalition and opposition attacked the government, no vote was taken and no real price paid.

This affair has long been forgotten, but the dynamics have not changed. Today, too, a prime minister is facing off against an American president with a burning desire for achievements in the peace process; one who sees Israel as obdurate. Benjamin Netanyahu wants to find a way to assuage Barack Obama's anger without paying any real price. His solution, like Ben-Gurion's 60 years ago, is to voice solutions that change nothing on the ground and highlight his political risk.

Netanyahu needs "rebels" in the Likud Knesset faction and coalition to show Obama how hard even a concession on paper would be, such as agreeing to a Palestinian state. If Benny Begin, Tzipi Hotovely and Danny Danon did not exist, they would have to be invented. Like Ben-Gurion, Netanyahu wants opposition, but is taking no real risk.

When he finishes his address Sunday night at Bar-Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, there will be no vote. Likud rebels in the past who opposed Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon were against change created by the withdrawals from Sinai and Gaza, and voted against the government. That's not the case now.

If there are no surprises in the speech, Netanyahu will retreat from positions he has held for many years, but there will be no real change on the ground. Netanyahu's success will be measured by the White House's response. If Obama is satisfied, Netanyahu will have succeeded. If not, Netanyahu will have to write another speech.

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      1.   OBAMA,GO TO CARE ABOUT IRANIAN ATOMIC BOMB. 04:20  |  ROSENVALD 14/06/09
      2.   Netanyahu another Ben Gurion??? 04:48  |  Jim 14/06/09
      3.   US pressure is good for Israel, despite the anti-US rhetoric 04:59  |  Yoshi 14/06/09
      4.   Obama promissed tough love - meaning sanctions 06:15  |  Avi 14/06/09
      5.   Aluf Benn, Are you an Israeli??? 06:21  |  Edward 14/06/09
      6.   Obama is not Truman 07:14  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 14/06/09
      7.   Tough love? 07:24  |  Rushka 14/06/09
      8.   true friends 07:27  |  Alex 14/06/09
      9.   OBAMA IS TEMPORARY,ISRAEL FOREVER. SAY NO TO DIVISION OF HOLYLAND 07:28  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 14/06/09
      10.   israel`s bag of tricks is deep... 07:28  |  eric 14/06/09
      11.   "If there are no surprises in the speech..." 07:33  |  Fortuna Benmayor 14/06/09
      12.   Who`s really in charge? 07:50  |  Chrisona 14/06/09
      13.   Play it for laffs 07:56  |  Chrisona 14/06/09
      14.   Obamabamba 08:15  |  James 14/06/09
      15.   Between politics and friends. 08:18  |  Mario Sala 14/06/09
      16.   Where is the cheese? 08:28  |  Bazmann 14/06/09
      17.   #2 yeah yeah the old lieberman oaths. 09:01  |  muslim-- 14/06/09
      18.   To Edward 09:37  |  tel aviv eyes 14/06/09
      19.   Ben Gurion and Shamir 09:48  |  A.M. 14/06/09
      20.   to Avi #1 09:49  |  zeev 14/06/09
      21.   Can`t have peace without Israel 09:54  |  Reid 14/06/09
      22.   to Edward #2 10:18  |  zeev 14/06/09
      23.   mario sala 4 10:33  |  potobac 14/06/09
      24.   No choice 10:56  |  Paul 14/06/09
      25.   Israel embarks on a rockier road than ever before. 11:32  |  Natallie Durson 14/06/09
      26.   General Benn is OK writer but I would give him a rank of major 12:08  |  Ron 14/06/09
      27.   # 1 avi 12:41  |  Axel 14/06/09
      28.   Frankly, my dear, we don`t care about Obama! 12:46  |  Kenny Fisher 14/06/09
      29.   Remember "Trophy"? 15:09  |  petra 14/06/09
      30.   Obama`s perfidy 16:09  |  marcella wachtel 14/06/09
      31.   Peace 17:09  |  December7 14/06/09
      32.   Obama will have to be satisfied 17:26  |  Jennifer 14/06/09
      33.   Israel & US president 18:13  |  Darrell 14/06/09
      34.   Criteria of aGood Speech 18:16  |  Shimon Cleopas 14/06/09
      35.   If Obama fails in Israel he will fail in Afghanistan and against 18:30  |  Kris Lazar 14/06/09
      36.   # 33 darrell 18:47  |  Axel 14/06/09
      37.   potobac 19:07  |  2nd time 14/06/09
      38.   Bibi 19:19  |  oz 14/06/09
      39.   poor obama 19:29  |  patriot 14/06/09
      40.   to CJ Kohn #6 - 2nd try 14:44  |  zeev 15/06/09
      41.   #40, zeev 21:56  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 15/06/09
      42.   to Alex #8 07:31  |  zeev 21/06/09
      43.   to CJ Kohn #41, God help us (7th try) 17:47  |  zeev 28/06/09
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