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Last update - 01:03 12/06/2009
ANALYSIS / All Iran candidates will bolster Hamas, Hezbollah ties
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News, Barack Obama 

One winner has already been declared in the Iranian elections: The Internet, used by more than 23 million Iranians, or 34 percent of the population. But that figure alone cannot be used to determine which of the four candidates will win. At the very most, one can assume most Web users will vote for reformist candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi, rather than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Mohsen Rezeai.

Although the presidential race is based mostly on the individual skills of the candidates, their agendas and public record are no less important. The candidates have almost insignificant differences on issues of core interest to the West and Israel. All of the candidates have said they are willing to hold a dialogue with the U.S., but say it would be gradual and depend on U.S. policy. Even Ahmadinejad has expressed his willingness to talk to the U.S.

This does not mean the Islamic Republic would be willing to talk with Israel, which all candidates agree is responsible for the conflict in the Middle East. But only Ahmadinejad has denied Israel's right to exist and the Holocaust.
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There is a consensus in Iran regarding the right to seek nuclear technology for peaceful use. U.S. President Barack Obama's recognition that Iran has the right to develop a nuclear program for peaceful ends may create support for Ahmadinejad, who is considered a nuclear crusader who has bent Washington's will.

Iranian foreign relations are dictated by supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who has given U.S. overtures a cold shoulder so far. But the Iranian president can, at least on the surface, set the tone of the relationship, which is why the elections are important. Iran is not expected to change its ambitions to expand its influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, regardless of who wins. Its ties with Syria will not cool, its influence in Iraq will not diminish and its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and countries like Sudan and Algeria will deepen. What might change is its perception. If Mousavi or Karroubi are elected, Tehran's rhetoric will tone down. A reformist president will make it easier for Obama to justify his new policy toward Iraq. But ties between the U.S. and Iran may improve even if Ahmadinejad is reelected.

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      1.   Don`t matter what Candidates say 03:41  |  *BEN JABO 12/06/09
      2.   Ahmadinejad Bad for Iran, Good for Israel 04:23  |  Arik Silverman 12/06/09
      3.   Analysis / Defeat of Iranian radicals will not change 05:35  |  Mark Lincoln 12/06/09
      4.   Just like Israel 05:44  |  Natallie Durson 12/06/09
      5.   #2 Not necessarily. 06:36  |  tbart 12/06/09
      6.   #4 Distorted nonsense as usual 06:56  |  tbart 12/06/09
      7.   #3, Mark Lincoln 07:01  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/06/09
      8.   #3 Psychiatry 07:01  |  tbart 12/06/09
      9.   Would the world listen to a more subtle Iran? 07:30  |  Tzfonit 12/06/09
      10.   NATALIE Actually just like the Pals who refused statehood offered 09:07  |  PETER SM 12/06/09
      11.   The Winner Takes It All 10:32  |  Shimon Cleopas 12/06/09
      12.   Yes, Natalie, and the US for the past 50 years 10:43  |  Tzfonit 12/06/09
      13.   Chicken Little Was Right 14:46  |  Mark Lincoln 12/06/09
      14.   candidates 15:55  |  oz 12/06/09
      15.   MLincoln :" Psychosis cannot be changed by reality." 16:30  |  17 12/06/09
      16.   democracy Iran style 16:30  |  ezzat tamimi 12/06/09
      17.   TO NO 1. AND TO THE PEOPLE THAT WORK FOR HAARETZ 18:58  |  DANNY 12/06/09
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