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Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri, leader of the anti-Syrian alliance, casting his ballot Sunday at a polling station in Beirut.
 (Reuters)
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Last update - 13:10 07/06/2009
Would Hezbollah win in Lebanon election lead to war with Israel?
By Zvi Barel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News, elections 

Talal Suleiman, editor of the important Lebanese newspaper As-Safir, estimates that about $1 billion will be spent on Sunday's election in Lebanon. He's not referring to the official sum in the state budget, or to the $20 million invested in election supervision. A billion dollars is the amount he believes the candidates have spent on buying votes - an average of $5 million per candidate, says Suleiman.

In the city of Zahle, votes cost as much as $1,500 apiece, according to local reports, much more than the $250 Suleiman has calculated for each voter. Zahle, which has seven seats in parliament, is the main battleground between candidates from the pro-Western coalition led by Saad Hariri and the Hezbollah coalition. Zahle's votes are expected to determine who wins the next majority in Lebanon.

The vote trading in Zahle, a city known for producing arak, stems not only from politicians who believe they have Lebanon's best interests at heart or merely yearn for a seat in parliament. In recent years, especially since the Second Lebanon War, Lebanon has become more like a wrestling match in which the local players are merely stand-ins for much larger powers and interests.
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Israel is worried that the election will be won by Hezbollah and its allies - Nabih Beri's Shi'ite party Amal and former general Michel Aoun's Maronite Christian party. The presumption is that such a victory would increase the danger of war between Israel and Lebanon. It has already been forgotten that the two Lebanon wars and the offensives in between took place when Hezbollah was not in the coalition or participating in government.

This week, Hezbollah's representative in South Lebanon said a war between Israel and Lebanon is possible only if the coalition led by Hariri continues to rule. He says Israel will only dare attack if it feels that Hezbollah has serious opposition at home. Beri, parliament's outgoing speaker, called on voters to vote in such a way that "the results will worry Israel .... Let us show Lebanese unity that will not allow [Israel] to attack and rely on the division that was characteristic during the Second Lebanon War."

Egypt and Saudi Arabia share Israel's concern about the election; in recent weeks they have taken pains to help Hezbollah's rivals. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak exposed Hezbollah's activity in his country with much fanfare; just last week, with the election on the way, he ordered that the terror suspects stand trial.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has funneled huge sums to candidates from Hariri's group to ensure their victory. The timing of the report in the German magazine Der Spiegel about Hezbollah's involvement in the assassination of Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri, was no coincidence, and the exposure of the "Israeli spy ring" was also meant to play an important part in the campaign.

An electoral defeat for Hariri's group will be perceived as a victory for Hezbollah, which has berated Arab leaders over the past year, but also for Iran, which will become Lebanon's most influential player.

Syria, for its part, is somewhat on the fence. Though it wants a Hezbollah victory, President Bashar Assad understands that such an outcome could erode his influence in Lebanon vis-a-vis Iran, especially now that he seeks to form closer relations with the United States. Will Assad be able to offer Lebanon as a dowry to the Americans when Iran wields the most influence there?

The inter-Arab rivalry is also affecting Egypt's relations with Qatar, which worked wonders last year when it brought Lebanon's rival parties together to sign a compromise agreement reestablishing the government. Egypt's ability to influence events in Lebanon nearly disappeared due to the intervention of a country "whose entire citizenry could fit into one big hotel," as the editor of the Egyptian newspaper Ruz al-Yusuf described Qatar.

It's no wonder then that in the tumultuous election rallies of recent weeks, the main candidates have focused on accusing their rivals of serving outside interests. Fouad Siniora's government has been accused of being a puppet of the United States and Israel. Hezbollah and its partners have been accused of being Iran's puppets.

But one key issue has been almost absent from the campaign: How will Lebanon itself - its economy, unemployment rate, reconstruction, education and health services - be affected by the election's outcome? The candidates, like their voters, consider such matters a subject for discussion after the vote. In a country fractured into 18 different religious and ethnic groups, each group's first order of business is to get its representatives into parliament. What comes next can be left to negotiation.

Related articles:
  • Hezbollah eyes victory over pro-West camp in Lebanon vote
  • Shi'ite politician challenging Hezbollah in Lebanon
  • On eve of Lebanon election, Christian leader opposes Hezbollah
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      1.   I believe both sides will avoid war, nothing to gain 07:51  |  L Dejardins 07/06/09
      2.   Hizbollah will NOT win the elections in Lebanon 09:02  |  Omar 07/06/09
      3.   War Will Ensue If Hezbollah Aids & Abets 09:13  |  Brad 07/06/09
      4.   There will only be a war if Israel wants a war...... 10:08  |  Swiss (Dino) 07/06/09
      5.   Israel cannot afford it 10:36  |  Natallie Durson 07/06/09
      6.   Hizballah will win 10:50  |  Imad 07/06/09
      7.   Much ado about nothing. 10:55  |  Stonebird 07/06/09
      8.   It`s Iran, stupid. 10:55  |  Fortuna Benmayor 07/06/09
      9.   `Would Hezbollah win lead to...` 11:03  |  Colin Wright 07/06/09
      10.   decisions 12:10  |  oz 07/06/09
      11.   Much Disinformation 12:12  |  Ramzi 07/06/09
      12.   If Hezbollah win 12:19  |  Ralph 07/06/09
      13.   First of all, it will be a tight contest. 12:22  |  Stephen. 07/06/09
      14.   Would Hezbollah win ? 13:04  |  R.M. de Vries 07/06/09
      15.   It is getting complicated! 13:32  |  Dani 07/06/09
      16.   NO WAY, NO WAY 13:54  |  indrajaya 07/06/09
      17.   lets think this one over 14:57  |  Jim 07/06/09
      18.   GOLEM 15:43  |  OZ 07/06/09
      19.   If Hezbollah wins!! 15:47  |  Yosi 07/06/09
      20.   very good article 15:50  |  michael 07/06/09
      21.   HEZBALLAH supports Hamas totally.Hamas wants to remove Israel 16:06  |  PETER SM 07/06/09
      22.   Re# 1 Lebanon has nothing to win from a war 16:20  |  Ines 07/06/09
      23.   Actually better for Israel if Hezbollah Wins 16:22  |  seisen 07/06/09
      24.   let`s see if you publish this one! 16:31  |  ezzat tamimi 07/06/09
      25.   # 21, SEISEN 16:39  |  indrajaya 07/06/09
      26.   I am worried 16:52  |  Ahmad 07/06/09
      27.   EZZAT Tamimi.As long as Hezb has an illegal army 16:53  |  PETER SM 07/06/09
      28.   Re # 2 Omar this is ... basically Money politics 16:55  |  Ines 07/06/09
      29.   Israel never fought a war unless provoked 17:08  |  sharona 07/06/09
      30.   Ezzat, let see if you publish this one- Is Nasrallah coming out 17:24  |  Simon 07/06/09
      31.   Re # 3 Unfortunately that is a fact ... 17:46  |  Ines 07/06/09
      32.   Re #29 18:20  |  Mike Lebanon 07/06/09
      33.   Simon says:let see if you publish this one- Is Nasrallah coming o 18:23  |  ezzat tamimi 07/06/09
      34.   That dependes: if Israel will decide to initiate another 18:35  |  MoLarry 07/06/09
      35.   What about the Saudi proxi 18:36  |  Alex 07/06/09
      36.   Elex asks about saudi proxies 19:06  |  ezzat tamimi 07/06/09
      37.   Imad #5 19:21  |  Michael 07/06/09
      38.   Durson Misses the Mark ...Again 19:29  |  Brad 07/06/09
      39.   Proud Lebanes 19:33  |  Brad 07/06/09
      40.   ezzat tamimi 19:37  |  Brad 07/06/09
      41.   hizbala is weak.israel is trigger happy,of course they start war 19:57  |  moofleta 07/06/09
      42.   Brad, Unlikely to be in Israel favour 20:01  |  ezzat tamimi 07/06/09
      43.   hezbollah win , could spell war in the near future 20:21  |  charro 07/06/09
      44.   Hizbollah can`t `win` Lebanon 20:22  |  Mark Lincoln 07/06/09
      45.   Charo:hezbollah win , could spell war in the near future 20:43  |  ezzat tamimi 07/06/09
      46.   Would Hezbollah win in Lebanon election lead to war? 02:02  |  Mark Lincoln 08/06/09
      47.   For Mark Lincoln #44...WHATEVER YOU SAY,FACTS ARE: 19:46  |  Kathy 08/06/09
      48.   Oh Yes izzat tamimi@? You have a bad memory izzat. 20:46  |  Whiskey/Bravo 08/06/09
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