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Last update - 06:24 03/06/2009
Secular Jews may be minority in Israeli schools by 2030
By Ofri Ilani
Tags: Israel New, Jewish World 

Secular Jews are expected to become a minority in Israeli schools and among the draft-age population within 20 years, according to a recent study published in the current issue of U.S. magazine Foreign Policy.

The study, which is based on figures from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, predicts that by 2030 Arabs and ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews together will compose close to 60 percent of Israel's elementary school population and about 40 percent of eligible voters.

"The Changing Face of Israel" was written by Richard Cincotta, a consulting demographer to the U.S. government's National Intelligence Council, and Eric Kaufmann of the University of London. They use demographic analysis to explain the trends evidenced in the last Israeli election, including the growing strength of the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu party, and attribute its success to secular Israelis' fears about the continuing erosion of the country's Zionist majority.
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"As the secular proportion of Jewish voters recedes, Yisrael Beytenu's fortunes are bound to improve," write Cincotta and Kaufmann. "And that secular proportion will indeed recede, unless, of course, the rules of the game change."

The article demonstrates that the proportion of secular students has shrunk significantly in the past several decades.

"The numbers are impressive," the article states. "In 1960, the [Central Bureau of Statistics] reported that just 15 percent of students in the Israeli primary-school system were either Israeli Arabs or haredim. Now, about 46 percent are. Around 2020, the majority of primary-school students will likely be composed of children from those two groups, each segregated into its own segment of the school system." The authors note that the average number of births for each ultra-Orthodox woman is seven, and the average number for Arab Muslim women is 3.9.

A U.S. intelligence assessment released about six months ago predicted that demographic trends could have a significant effect on the composition of the current Knesset.

Prof. Sergio Della Pergola of Hebrew University, an expert in contemporary Jewish demography, said he was familiar with the figures cited in the Foreign Policy article but was not convinced that the article's predictions would prove accurate.

It remains unclear whether ultra-Orthodox fertility trends will remain steady in the coming years, he said, since much depends on state funding for child allowances.
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  1.   Yes, and we encourage generations of poor ignorant ultras 07:40  |  Secular 03/06/09
  2.   What? The more ultra Orthodox, the higher the child allowances.. 09:07  |  Dave 03/06/09
  3.   Chep chep chep 09:25  |  Zev Davis 03/06/09
  4.   Schools now voters later 09:37  |  Rex 03/06/09
  5.   The future looks dark, darker, darkest... 09:42  |  Benjamina 03/06/09
  6.   Minority or ignorance 09:47  |  Robert 03/06/09
  7.   The very religious 09:54  |  GA 03/06/09
  8.   More fundamentalist. More racist. 09:54  |  Roo 03/06/09
  9.   Religious Jews prevent demographic nightmare 09:55  |  Shmuel 03/06/09
  10.   There is a way out 10:00  |  GaileeHero 03/06/09
  11.   What about ...? 10:04  |  Freddy 03/06/09
  12.   Usual Hysterics 10:05  |  FOX 03/06/09
  13.   Iran is exactly in opposite direction 10:06  |  kia 03/06/09
  14.   Fox #11 10:35  |  Roo 03/06/09
  15.   There are secular Jews and sick Jews 11:00  |  a voice 03/06/09
  16.   kia, important to note #12 11:00  |  FOX 03/06/09
  17.   Secular birth rate 11:10  |  Sherlock Holmes 03/06/09
  18.   European Haredim 11:14  |  Joseph 03/06/09
  19.   Are Haredim a plague? 11:20  |  Akiva 03/06/09
  20.   The last time the Arabs and the Traditionalists voted together . 11:49  |  Zev Davis 03/06/09
  21.   Historically Jewish religious states have been failures. 12:00  |  Michael 03/06/09
  22.   MICHAEL UK Your ignorance is only surpassed by your ignorance 12:28  |  PETER SM 03/06/09
  23.   AD66-70 rebels and Bar Kokhba. The Hamas of their day. 12:53  |  Michael 03/06/09
  24.   Israel soon ultra Orthodox... I`ll leave to america 12:57  |  Europe soon Islamic 03/06/09
  25.   Roo supports Yisrael Betenu? 12:58  |  FOX 03/06/09
  26.   PETER SM 20. Try reading before you insult. 13:25  |  Michael 03/06/09
  27.   Fox #23 13:45  |  Roo 03/06/09
  28.   Pretty shocking 13:55  |  Jim 03/06/09
  29.   The Grain of Salt 14:15  |  MIKE 03/06/09
  30.   kia #12 right on 14:22  |  Roo 03/06/09
  31.   #24 stop 15:58  |  Tarzan 03/06/09
  32.   Only the secular Israeli`s can really 20:24  |  T A Sheppard 03/06/09
  33.   hash and the secular exodus 20:39  |  ben 03/06/09
  34.   Roo`s Fantasy #27 20:52  |  FOX 03/06/09
  35.   The secular left messed up the system 20:56  |  TOMY 03/06/09
  36.   The secular love western night life . 21:13  |  TOMY 03/06/09
  37.   One missconseption is that the ultra learn 21:21  |  TOMY 03/06/09
  38.   Religious are not always extremists 21:25  |  TOMY 03/06/09
  39.   The demise of secular Zionism 21:49  |  Michael N 03/06/09
  40.   it means, in other words.... 21:55  |  rober costa 03/06/09
  41.   Confused by David #2 22:34  |  Czarkazem13 03/06/09
  42.   FOX on the rocks #34 02:09  |  Roo 04/06/09
  43.   So what? Let people make their (religious) choice! 02:12  |  Moises 04/06/09
  44.   Is Judaism a dying religion? 02:33  |  Gully Foyle 04/06/09
  45.   My solution 04:04  |  Rehuven 04/06/09
  46.   MICHAEL UK Education in a predominantly orthodox school does NOT 04:45  |  PETER SM 04/06/09
  47.   ROO Discovers he does not like anti-democratic behaviour 04:59  |  PETER SM 04/06/09
  48.   economic benefit of charadim 08:57  |  marc 04/06/09
  49.   Oh what bitter irony it would be 11:28  |  Smith 04/06/09
  50.   welcome to Israelistan 16:26  |  American in NY 04/06/09
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