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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during a faction meeting in the Knesset on Monday.
 (AP)
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Last update - 08:02 26/05/2009
ANALYSIS / Netanyahu bringing Israel closer to war with Iran
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News 
 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers the lifting of the Iranian nuclear threat his life's mission. Before coming to power, he had mentioned that such an operation might cost thousands of lives, but the price was justified in view of the threat's severity. His comments yesterday at the meeting of Likud's Knesset faction put to rest Ariel Sharon's doctrine that Iran is not just Israel's problem but the entire world's problem, and Israel must not be at the forefront of the struggle. Israel is now at the forefront.

The leaders of Iran and Israel escalated the verbal confrontation yesterday. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said discussions on the nuclear issue are over, which means Iran does not intend to give up enriching uranium. Netanyahu said that if Israel does not lead the defense against the Iranian threat and bring in the United States and other countries, no one else will.

In both cases, in Tehran and Jerusalem, it's possible to justify the leaders' comments by citing domestic political needs. But even if the immediate motive is domestic politics, the strategic implications cannot be ignored.
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Netanyahu reiterated that he has come to an understanding with U.S. President Barack Obama on preventing Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability. Unlike the dispute between Netanyahu and the United States on the Palestinian question, the Americans have not denied his statements on understandings reached on Iran.

A senior source close to the Obama administration has said that the dialogue Obama has offered Iran will come to nothing and that the U.S. will not strike Iran unless something unusual and unexpected happens. If this turns out to be the case, the Netanyahu government may have to decide whether to attack Iran's nuclear installations.

Three arguments are normally made to reject the likelihood of an Israeli military option: the complexity of the mission, the U.S. veto and opposition in the government. It is usually assumed that Israel will seek to repeat the 1981 bombing of the nuclear reactor in Iraq. This is only one scenario and not a likely one.

There are other possibilities to consider: a war in the north that drags Iran in, or a strike against a valuable target for the Iranian regime, which leads Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to take action against "the Zionist regime." If Iran attacks Israel first, the element of surprise will be lost, but then Israel's strike against the nuclear installations will be considered self-defense.

The second argument, regarding American opposition to a strike, depends on the circumstances. It's hard to imagine that Obama will order the interception of Israeli aircraft on the way to Natanz if all other ways of stopping the centrifuges have failed. Clearly the administration will have to chastise Israel, and let's not forget the statements by CIA chief Leon Panetta, who warned against any operation not coordinated with the United States. But no one knows how Obama will behave in the moment of truth. He told Newsweek that he will not tell Israelis what their defense requirements are. Netanyahu liked this very much.

The third claim, about political opposition at home, is entirely mistaken. In talks on going to war, the ministers and officers compete over who is more patriotic, not who is wiser or more rational. At decision time, no one will dare go down in history as having reservations and risk being portrayed as a coward. If the Second Lebanon War is anything to go by, all the "heroes" who criticized the war in retrospect had voted to go to war. This will be the case if Netanyahu brings to the cabinet a plan to attack Iran, and the Israel Defense Forces will say that it can.

A war with Iran is not inevitable. But the prime minister took another step yesterday toward preparing the general public for the possibility that it might break out.


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      1.   dont do it 03:11  |  harzion 26/05/09
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      3.   Aluf Benn`s preference 03:42  |  Brod 26/05/09
      4.   The strength of democracy. 07:28  |  Mario Sala 26/05/09
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      6.   Bibi scares me as much as Ahmedinijad does. 08:11  |  Tzfonit 26/05/09
      7.   Of course its inevitable 08:28  |  Frank 26/05/09
      8.   #1, HARIZON, no, DO IT, i want you to 08:45  |  VIPER 26/05/09
      9.   Brod, the time has not yet come. 09:00  |  Tzfonit 26/05/09
      10.   War with Iran? 09:04  |  Albrecht Klein 26/05/09
      11.   So Naive 09:25  |  Luc Rahme 26/05/09
      12.   BRINGING ISRAEL CLOSER TO WAR WITH IRAN 10:18  |  Roy Weston 26/05/09
      13.   Israel will commit collective suicide 10:21  |  Chris Linthwaite 26/05/09
      14.   #9, Tzfonit 11:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/05/09
      15.   viper stop getting hysterical 11:11  |  harzion 26/05/09
      16.   #12 Luc Rahme 11:39  |  Albrecht Klein 26/05/09
      17.   The flaw in Netanyahu`s plan 11:58  |  Johnboy 26/05/09
      18.   Israels attack on Iran will be an intellectual exercise only 12:50  |  Natallie Durson 26/05/09
      19.   How is it like to live... 12:57  |  Anne 26/05/09
      20.   # 15 albrecht 13:19  |  Axel 26/05/09
      21.   Netanyahu and credibility 13:28  |  Manny Goldstein 26/05/09
      22.   Frank is 100% right 15:06  |  Matt 26/05/09
      23.   Iran buys her stuff ready made from North Korea 15:45  |  Malach HaMavet 26/05/09
      24.   Bibi talks about war;the only thing that will most likely happen 16:10  |  glenna 26/05/09
      25.   How about destroying Iran`s oilfields? 17:03  |  Yonatan 26/05/09
      26.   IRAN is `bringing Israel closer to war` with IRAN - not Netanyahu 17:47  |  Nicole H. 26/05/09
      27.   Nothing in writing, Bibi, you are on your own 18:02  |  Witness 26/05/09
      28.   # 25 yonatan 18:08  |  Axel 26/05/09
      29.   viper 18:09  |  bar kochva 26/05/09
      30.   RE: Rainbow Warrior`s Allegations re: Iran`s Nuclear Program 18:19  |  Jacob Paul 26/05/09
      31.   Nicole Poland started WW2 when it attacked Germany 18:30  |  American in NY 26/05/09
      32.   POOR IRANIANS 18:38  |  Dmitry 26/05/09
      33.   #25, Then what will happen? 19:51  |  Dani 26/05/09
      34.   potential warcriminal 19:54  |  Peter Clement 26/05/09
      35.   Netanyahu`s war 21:11  |  Jimmy Juste 26/05/09
      36.   AM In NY the world learned appeasement didnt work after Chezcs 00:48  |  PETER SM 27/05/09
      37.   #29-Idiot 01:05  |  Edwin 27/05/09
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      39.   Jacob Paul - #30 ...IRAN DOES NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM 01:58  |  Coldstream 27/05/09
      40.   WWIII this way comes! 02:09  |  Jean Lafleche 27/05/09
      41.   Matt #22 02:29  |  Mike from Boston 27/05/09
      42.   Iran welcomes any attack by Israel. 02:38  |  Wiseman 27/05/09
      43.   War With Russia, Anyone? 02:56  |  Ed 27/05/09
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      45.   RE # 43 VERY WELL said 05:34  |  RME 27/05/09
      46.   Re #45- correction-should read Re44 05:53  |  RME 27/05/09
      47.   non-polar 07:37  |  Ze 27/05/09
      48.   Iran`s nuclear program 08:06  |  Ben Novick 27/05/09
      49.   if you fight-do it right 08:58  |  chip 27/05/09
      50.   The mad dog is about to bite the elephant 10:37  |  Mark Leaman 27/05/09
      51.   Natallie Durson 17:40  |  Erez 27/05/09
      52.   Two leaders go to war. 19:20  |  Stephen. 27/05/09
      53.   War with Iran 20:13  |  S Cohen 27/05/09
      54.   Obama 20:44  |  Mike from Boston 27/05/09
      55.   Now, back at the ranch in the USA 01:45  |  *BEN JABO 28/05/09
      56.   #31 American in NY - Spin test 01:48  |  Malach HaMavet 28/05/09
      57.   #15, HARIZON, makes me laugh 08:43  |  VIPER 28/05/09
      58.   Nuclear weapons Shimon Peres 13:55  |  Jan 26/06/09
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