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ANALYSIS / Netanyahu's only card to play with Obama is Iran
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Haaretz TV, Barack Obama 

I'm going out on a limb when I predict that no crisis will erupt at the meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday. The smiles will be authentic, and Netanyahu will be able to tell reporters about the good atmosphere. Obama will be an affable and charming host, just as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was when he met Netanyahu in Sharm el-Sheikh this week.

But the expressions of friendship will just barely cover the serious differences of opinion between Obama and Netanyahu on how to progress from today's chaotic and volatile Middle East. Here's my second prediction: Obama will give Netanyahu time to adapt his positions to the new spirit coming from America, and in a few more weeks, he will call him back for a "do-over," to see if Netanyahu has changed. Only then, after Obama has met with the leaders of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority and visited Cairo, will the real dialogue between Israel and the new and ambitious administration in Washington begin.

All the leaks about the preparations for the visit indicate that Netanyahu intends to present his positions to Obama without dressing them up to try to curry favor. The prime minister will explain that Iran is the biggest problem in the region, not the Palestinians, and that the moderate Arab countries share Israel's concerns. He will advise that a Palestinian state be built "from the ground up" to ensure that it doesn't threaten Israel's security; a state should not be established straight away. He will propose a "regional" process and hint that if the Arab initiative is amended and the right of return is removed from it, there will be something to talk about. He will call for Syria's continued isolation, to distance it from Iran. He will evade the demand for a freeze on settlement construction and, without much enthusiasm, promise to evacuate illegal outposts in accordance with the law.
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A guest from the Middle East asked Obama this month what he thought about Netanyahu's idea of "self-administration" for the Palestinians. Obama replied without hesitation: "It's not enough." Obama will have a few things to say to the prime minister: That Israel must accept the two-state solution - the consensus in the international community; that progress toward peace will help in formation of a regional front against Iran, and that Israel must keep its promise to freeze settlement construction and dismantle the outposts.

Senior administration officials have aired these publicly demands in recent weeks. A leader of the American Jewish community was kept waiting for two hours for a meeting with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel that lasted all of 12 minutes. Emanuel was to the point: Israel's moment of truth is approaching, this president intends to make peace, and you would do well to get on board.

Netanyahu wants to get something for adopting the two-state solution. Obama will tell him that America isn't about to pay a second time for the same goods it received from former prime minister Ariel Sharon. Netanyahu will try to renew the understanding that Sharon reached with the previous administration on the settlements: Israel may build in Jerusalem and the large settlement blocs if it stops developing settlements beyond the separation fence, removes outposts and halts the controversial A-1 project east of Jerusalem, which could cut off Palestinian contiguity in the West Bank. It's not certain Obama will agree to this. Any additional construction in Ma'aleh Adumim or Beitar Illit will undermine his credibility as a leader who dared to stand up to Israel and stare down the Jewish lobby.

Loud and clear

Netanyahu has just one stick to wave at Obama. Netanyahu's talk of a "second Holocaust," with relation to Tehran's nuclear program, and revelations about the air force's preparations for possible action in Iran were received loud and clear in Washington. Obama dispatched a senior envoy to Jerusalem to warn Israel against launching a surprise attack. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak gave their tentative agreement, but asked that a timetable be set for America's dialogue with the Iranians.

The foundations of a deal can be discerned here: Israel will not disturb Obama on Iran and America will cut Israel some slack on the Palestinians. This is what Netanyahu wants. The main problem is that the Americans see Iran as their patch and not Israel's, and they expect Israel to keep things quiet on the Palestinian front. The central objective of Obama's foreign policy is to improve relations with Arabs and Muslims, so he needs to maintain a little distance from Israel and do something for the Palestinians.

Elliott Abrams, who held the "Israel portfolio" in the Bush administration, wrote last week in The Wall Street Journal that the future of Netanyahu and Obama's relationship will be decided in the first 30 seconds of their meeting, when the two look each other in the eye. We once asked Barak, near the end of his term as prime minister, if he was "a friend of Bill Clinton." That's immaterial, Barak said. It's not a personal matter. It's a matter of each country's interests.

Neither of the two friendliest pairings in the history of Israeli-American relations - Rabin-Clinton and Sharon-Bush - got off to a very smooth start. Yitzhak Rabin was not exactly wowed when he met Clinton before he was elected president. In office, Clinton made Rabin his strategic partner and diplomatic mentor. Sharon devoted the bulk of his first meeting with Bush, in March 2001, to a long and exhausting lecture about terror and various threats, ignored the president's gestures of friendship, and declined to resume the peace process. Sharon's initial reaction to the September 11 terror attacks was that America would sell out Israel to the Saudis, and he insisted that Israel "would not be Czechoslovakia." Only after Bush declared war on terror did Sharon really become his ally.

Netanyahu wants to see a similar scenario evolve. He's hoping it won't be long before Obama recognizes the brutal reality of the Middle East and abandons his illusions of world peace. The president's decision to retain the sanctions on Syria, a day after he sent emissaries to Damascus, was taken as a positive sign in Jerusalem: Obama understands that the Syrians are deceiving him and continuing with their bad behavior even when America reaches out to them. Should a major terror attack occur, should Pakistan fall to the Taliban or the Iranians make a hasty move, the Americans will understand that they have no more stable and friendly ally than Israel. They'll put aside their demands that Israel turn the West Bank over to the Palestinians. Obama's faith in his powers of persuasion and his ability to foster dialogue are perceived in Israel as naivete.

During Netanyahu's previous stint as prime minister, his first visit to Washington triggered speculation on whether he would turn out to be a moderate, like Shimon Peres, and seek to advance the Oslo Accords after having paid lip service to his right-wing voters and positions during the election campaign. Or, perhaps, he would turn out unyielding, like Yitzhak Shamir - leading to an inevitable confrontation with the administration. Netanyahu, who was less gaga about peace than Peres and less stubborn than Shamir, tried to maneuver between the two paths - to talk like Shamir and act like Peres, but slower and without enthusiasm.

Netanyahu behaved in a similar way with the budget discussions this week. He entered them with his ideological positions but showed flexibility after coming up against the constraints of the political situation. This middle ground between speeches and slogans, on the one hand, and decisions and actions, on the other, is just what President Obama hopes to see in Netanyahu.
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  1.   That achieves what? 23:31  |  Axel 16/05/09
  2.   excellent analysis of the situation from both perspectives 23:46  |  Ninjateck 16/05/09
  3.   Bibis role is predetermined 00:01  |  Natallie Durson 17/05/09
  4.   Antother words Netanyahu Refuses to Comprimise 00:06  |  Tupac 17/05/09
  5.   BRAVO: Israel`s moment of truth is approaching 00:11  |  Tupac 17/05/09
  6.   Only if he wishes to be seen 00:28  |  Mark Lincoln 17/05/09
  7.   Oh. Obama will obey Netanayuh as Bush obeyed Olmert! 00:57  |  Mike 17/05/09
  8.   what`s the bottom line? survival in a Jewish state. 01:21  |  Mark 17/05/09
  9.   Netanyahu has no cards to play. 16:30  |  American in NY 17/05/09
  10.   This headline is not true:bibi has gaza hell and sderot being 16:57  |  glenna 18/05/09
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