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Last update - 11:54 12/05/2009
Iran's missiles not an existential threat, study says
By Amos Harel
Tags: Nuclear, Iran, Israel News

Iran is currently capable of carrying out a conventional missile attack on Israel - a substantial but not existential threat, say two Israeli analysts who will present their research on Tehran's missile capacity tomorrow. The analysts consider Iran's missile arsenal its main deterrent and describe the country's significant investments in the area.

The research was carried out by Uzi Rubin, former head of the Defense Ministry's Homa Project (code for the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system), and Tal Inbar, head of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies.

The two studies will be presented at an annual conference at the institute, which this year is dedicated to the missile and rocket threat on Israel.
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The analysts' assessments are particularly relevant given estimates that Tehran is moving closer to acquiring a nuclear capability. The Western media is also speculating that Israel might carry out an attack against Iran's nuclear installations.

Rubin notes that while moderate Arab states emphasize air power, Iran and Syria (and by extension Hamas and Hezbollah) are adopting a "resistance" doctrine giving priority to missiles and rockets as the best response to Western air superiority.

Rubin relies on open source materials and says Iran showcases its missiles at every opportunity, while its leaders stress the weapon's importance to national security.

At a time when most Iranian military aircraft are remnants of the Shah era, the missile systems are significantly more modern and displayed during parades and expos. Test launches receive dramatic media coverage; Rubin says Iran's leaders describe their missile arsenal as the "heart of its deterrent." Its role is "to defend, deter and influence."

Iran's leaders have said they are ready to confront both the "enemies across the ocean" (the United States) and any Israeli attack. Iran has thus identified 35 enemy targets, including bases and concentrations of forces within 2,000 kilometers of the country's borders. This is the declared missile range in Iran's arsenal.

Since Tehran denies it is working on nuclear weapons, it also claims it does not develop missiles with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers. It says the reports in the West are the product of "Zionist propaganda" aimed to frighten the Europeans.

Rubin adds that the Iranian missiles are presented to the public as scientific and engineering advances that show the regime's determination to protect the people. Rubin writes that "missiles are an equalizer, balancing the superiority of Israel's air force."

He says Iran prides itself on being able to produce missiles at a rate carmakers produce cars. "It is therefore reasonable to assume that Iran will aspire to acquire at least hundreds of Shehab missiles and rely on the Shehab as a sort of super-Katyusha," he writes.

Speaking with Haaretz, Rubin avoided estimating the number of long-range missiles currently in Iran's arsenal. But he appears to attribute to the missiles greater destructive power than the American researcher Anthony Cordesman, who said during a lecture in Israel last year that the number of Iranian missiles capable of striking Israel is very limited.

Inbar, meanwhile, notes the origins of Iran's focus on missiles: the damage caused by Iraqi bombing during the eight-year war between the two in the 1980s. Only at the end of that conflict did Iran speed up the development of its missile arsenal, with help from North Korea, China and Russia.

Inbar estimates that in two years, Iran's missiles will be capable of traveling 3,000 kilometers. In 2004, Iran successfully tested an upgraded Shehab-3 with a range of 2,000 kilometers.

Inbar describes "noncontinuous progress" in Iran's missile project, which has "holes and gaps" but is backed by excessive propaganda. The missiles, he writes, are perceived as Iran's "vertical bypass," enabling it to beat Israel's advanced air defense (which precludes air attacks on its territory).

According to Inbar, "Iran takes advantage of its missile arsenal in order to leverage an image of power in the Middle East that is beyond its real ability to participate in dictating the regional agenda." Inbar believes that "Israel must provide a credible response to the threat of Iran's missiles."

In the absence of such a response, Inbar says, Israel's civilians are threatened, and the country's ability to act, militarily and politically, might suffer as a consequence.

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      1.   Excellent article. 03:43  |  Stephen. 12/05/09
      2.   Israel has enough weapons to currently defeat any Iranian attack 04:39  |  r 12/05/09
      3.   Like Duh Dude! 05:31  |  Mark Lincoln 12/05/09
      4.   Mark Lincoln,: What me worry? 06:00  |  Stephen in New York 12/05/09
      5.   r # 2 Babylon Is On The Euphrates River In Iraq 06:14  |  Jeff Northridge 12/05/09
      6.   Palestinians and arabs need to learn to coexist with Israel and 06:27  |  kss 12/05/09
      7.   #5 Not this nonsense again, Stephen 06:28  |  Johnboy 12/05/09
      8.   Mark Lincoln 06:31  |  Bob 12/05/09
      9.   SNY and his "apocalypse" theory... 06:36  |  BBSNews 12/05/09
      10.   # 1 Steven....right-on, good post 06:59  |  allang 12/05/09
      11.   JOHNBOY not odd at all.A war of attrition by Iran 07:45  |  PETER SM 12/05/09
      12.   M.LINCOLN Iran does not have to fire any missiles or WMD`s 07:13  |  PETER SM 12/05/09
      13.   #4 - yes the world sees how Fatah and Hamas get along .. 07:34  |  redbourn 12/05/09
      14.   Good to think rationally 07:47  |  Ilan 12/05/09
      15.   Iran has no need to attack Israel 07:54  |  Peter Williams 12/05/09
      16.   Time to Change Strategy 07:59  |  Uncle Sam 12/05/09
      17.   Chemical weapons in Iranian hands, BSNews 08:03  |  Stephen in New York 12/05/09
      18.   Johnboy 08:08  |  Stephen in New York 12/05/09
      19.   Proud Palestinian 09:22  |  Tzfonit 12/05/09
      20.   Death by a thousand cuts 09:24  |  Daniel 12/05/09
      21.   iran is a primitive power with no technology 10:20  |  gad 12/05/09
      22.   johnboy is right the iranians are rational 10:25  |  gad 12/05/09
      23.   johnboy and iranian chemical weapons 10:28  |  gad 12/05/09
      24.   Great relief Now Israelis can concentrate on removing Settlements 10:34  |  Ivar 12/05/09
      25.   13~Ivar Saudi Plan rejected by Hamas ! 10:45  |  Akram Zekaria 12/05/09
      26.   Mad Mullahs? 10:50  |  Jerri i 12/05/09
      27.   to Mark Lincoln : "Anyone who is not willing to seek out 10:57  |  Akram Zekaria 12/05/09
      28.   IRAN IS NOT A THREAT, ISRAEL IS 10:57  |  Indrajaya 12/05/09
      29.   Saudi Plan 11:05  |  Hector Bonfacius 12/05/09
      30.   #3 Stephen in New York 11:19  |  Chris Linthwaite 12/05/09
      31.   So what, exactly, is an existential threat? 11:23  |  Tzfonit 12/05/09
      32.   Good Now Attack Iran before they are a threat 11:57  |  Baruch Gold 12/05/09
      33.   TARGETING TEHRAN 12:03  |  Steve 12/05/09
      34.   "..while its leaders stress the weapon`s importance to national . 12:43  |  Jew- and Bookburner 12/05/09
      35.   Under estimating your enemy 13:16  |  Jamshid 12/05/09
      36.   mark lincoln 13:31  |  ehud 12/05/09
      37.   jamshid peace is the best option 13:42  |  gad 12/05/09
      38.   IVAR"Great"Iran has promised to stop developing missiles further? 13:52  |  PETER SM 12/05/09
      39.   johnboy 13:52  |  ehud 12/05/09
      40.   Iran does not have to fire sny middilrd - Peter SM 14:04  |  Mark Lincoln 12/05/09
      41.   #29 - Yes, but overestimating your own capabilities... 14:05  |  JES 12/05/09
      42.   How dare they aggressively defend themselves! 14:06  |  Ari 12/05/09
      43.   bbsn 14:10  |  oz 12/05/09
      44.   Tzfonit#29 I sneer at you 14:12  |  American in NY 12/05/09
      45.   ehud # 34 No paranoia, but prudence 14:30  |  American in NY 12/05/09
      46.   INDRAJAYA 14:31  |  DANISH 12/05/09
      47.   american in NY 14:42  |  EHUD 12/05/09
      48.   american in ny 14:44  |  gad 12/05/09
      49.   BBSNews 14:46  |  Stephen in New York 12/05/09
      50.   LINTHWAITE 14:49  |  DANISH 12/05/09
      51.   I suggest it is orchestrated company to give the particular 14:49  |  17 12/05/09
      52.   # 41american 14:57  |  ehud 12/05/09
      53.   Jamshid #34 14:58  |  Peter Williams 12/05/09
      54.   Ehud # 42 Get a grip. 15:24  |  American in NY 12/05/09
      55.   where would the katyushas be fired from? 15:25  |  amir drori 12/05/09
      56.   gad# 43 I never said otherwise, so waht is your point? 15:26  |  American in NY 12/05/09
      57.   iran`s missile buildup is a sign of their weakness 15:28  |  gad 12/05/09
      58.   wes hould not forget that the thousands of hizb missiles 15:30  |  harzion 12/05/09
      59.   jamshid 15:40  |  ehud 12/05/09
      60.   Iran against the west 16:49  |  Hector Bonifacius 12/05/09
      61.   american in ny there is an air of happiness 16:55  |  gad 12/05/09
      62.   Gad 16:55  |  Persian Kitty 12/05/09
      63.   why does china help iran develop missile?? 17:00  |  Mila 12/05/09
      64.   persian kitty your comparison of iranian universities 17:11  |  gad 12/05/09
      65.   Iran defends itself 17:12  |  mehmet 12/05/09
      66.   # 60 Persian kitty.... cat-like thoughts 17:16  |  allang 12/05/09
      67.   persian kitty iran lives in an earthquake zone 17:18  |  gad 12/05/09
      68.   persian kitty iran and pakistan 17:19  |  gad 12/05/09
      69.   persian kitty you do not need permission to take out patents 17:23  |  gad 12/05/09
      70.   persian kitty you also have pistacchio nuts 17:24  |  gad 12/05/09
      71.   persian kitty 17:31  |  oz 12/05/09
      72.   Cold war with Islamist states 17:40  |  Anonymous 12/05/09
      73.   Iranian Revolution 17:46  |  Anonymous 12/05/09
      74.   Terrorist threats 18:17  |  Anonymous 12/05/09
      75.   #50 DANISH 18:20  |  Chris Linthwaite 12/05/09
      76.   33 mark Lincoln 19:35  |  Giora 12/05/09
      77.   mehmet from Istanbul - today you may not see anything wrong 20:06  |  David Israel 12/05/09
      78.   # 69 Gad..... quick, have something alcoholic 20:06  |  allang 12/05/09
      79.   gad # 61 take a reading comprehension course. 20:12  |  American in NY 12/05/09
      80.   allang dont like alcohol 20:19  |  gad 12/05/09
      81.   PETERSM-Defeat Iran by damaging their ability to wage proxy war 20:22  |  binny 12/05/09
      82.   this analysis makes MUCH more sense than not(2nd try) 21:22  |  eric 12/05/09
      83.   #3 Mark Lincoln, the normal/obvious in Israel is abnormal 22:12  |  Mark B. 12/05/09
      84.   #4, Stephen, NY 22:59  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/05/09
      85.   #31, Tzfonit, and existential threats 23:04  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/05/09
      86.   linthwaite "it is my belief that the syrian structure destroyed 23:05  |  gad 12/05/09
      87.   Mark B - normal, abnormal and Israel 23:12  |  Mark Lincoln 12/05/09
      88.   linthwaite and information fit only for babies 23:14  |  gad 12/05/09
      89.   american in ny"i have take a reading comprehension course" 23:22  |  gad 12/05/09
      90.   The Flaming Datum 23:24  |  Mark Lincoln 12/05/09
      91.   Duh, what if you`re wrong? Or they send biologics? 23:43  |  Steven Gilbert 12/05/09
      92.   #28 Indrajaya - Who Occupy who? 23:53  |  Giora 12/05/09
      93.   Currently, not an existential threat 23:56  |  Noam D. Blume 12/05/09
      94.   Peter Williams 01:18  |  arik 13/05/09
      95.   gad WRONG- Iran despite US sanctions leader of muslim science 02:08  |  John 13/05/09
      96.   Stephen in NYC - what you worry 04:56  |  Mark Lincoln 13/05/09
      97.   Allan G 06:26  |  Persian Kitty 13/05/09
      98.   Oz 06:31  |  Persian Kitty 13/05/09
      99.   BINNY Iran controlled.Pal govt REJECTS peace and borders 06:52  |  PETER SM 13/05/09
      100.   Allan G - Addendum re Russia 06:53  |  Persian Kitty 13/05/09
      101.   M.LINCOLN not really while,they have the WMD delivery capacity 09:08  |  PETER SM 13/05/09
      102.   Gad 14:35  |  Cyrus 13/05/09
      103.   Israel owes itself to Iran 19:33  |  Sal 13/05/09
      104.   Mark Lincoln 19:56  |  Stephen in New York 13/05/09
      105.   Everybody knows that Irans` M not AET2Israel. 20:21  |  Damian 13/05/09
      106.   Uncle Sam 20:38  |  Tee Gee 13/05/09
      107.   Iran non-threat 02:30  |  Jeffrey 15/05/09
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