Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., May 10, 2009 Iyyar 16, 5769 | | Israel Time: 02:23 (EST+7)
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Even a blizzard begins with tiny snowflakes
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: israel news

In May 1961 the first meeting took place between John F. Kennedy and David Ben-Gurion, at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York. The first question Kennedy asked the prime minister was: Are you developing nuclear weapons? The question did not come as a surprise. For weeks Israel had discussed the issue of how to answer such a question. As agreed, Ben-Gurion replied that it was a project for energy purposes, and so on. A year or two later the expression that Israel would not be the first country in the Middle East to formally introduce nuclear weapons to the region was invented.

America knew the truth. It understood that Israel, which was under threat, needed deterrent weapons against the Arab world, which threatened to destroy it. But a lot of time has passed between those days of deliberate vagueness and the open threats about Israel's capabilities and plans to attack Iran, and we talk too much.

When a news item about the destruction of an Iranian weapons convoy in Sudan is published, unknown sources discover it's the same distance from here to Iran. And an anonymous source reveals that F-16s carried out a large maneuver above Gibraltar, including refueling planes, about 4,000 kilometers from Israel. It's doubtful whether United States President Barack Obama is pleased by these veiled threats after he publicly promised to solve the Iranian issue through rapprochement.
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We must take into account that an air attack on Iran, as successful as it may be, would make our home front a target for large missiles that would hit the big cities, too. Our situation will be worse if our operation does not succeed as planned. Obama is right when he implies that such an operation is too big for us. Moreover, any outcome, whether failure, partial success or complete success, will not solve Obama's most important problem - the end of the conflict between us and the Palestinians.

Israeli correspondents in Washington have learned that the administration there is used to speaking with one voice. You can talk to the president, senators and senior officials, and they repeat the same thing that was decided on under Obama's policy. Here we have 37 ministers and deputy ministers, and we hear thousands of versions of the same subject.

When Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller calls on Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it must be clear that this is not an official's slip of the tongue. To begin with, this is the first time the administration is speaking publicly about Israel's nuclear capabilities. In addition, the same woman refused to answer the question of whether the administration will take new steps to pressure Israel to give up its nuclear weapons, which the country holds "according to foreign sources."

Obama's initial statements since coming to power reveal his vision of a world without nuclear weapons. His explanation that the problem must be handled through rapprochement rather than force is the first instruction to Israel to give up the idea of attacking Iran. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel declared that the United States's ability to confront Iran depends on Israel's ability to achieve progress on the Palestinian front. "This is Israel's moment of truth. Two states for two peoples is the only solution for the Middle East." And National Security Adviser James L. Jones declared that "We will not push Israel under the wheels of a bus, but we will be more forceful toward Israel than we have been under Bush."

I don't know what President Shimon Peres said to Obama in private talks and what Obama said to Peres, and how Peres will interpret the president's words when he reports on them to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Judging by what the new administration's leaders said openly at the AIPAC conference, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has no reason to rejoice. Vice President Joe Biden declared that despite America's commitment to Israeli security and the removal of the Iranian threat, Israel must work toward a solution of two states for two peoples. It must stop building new settlements, dismantle outposts and grant the Palestinians freedom of movement and access to economic opportunities. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, John Kerry, spoke in the same tone when he said the settlements strengthen Hamas.

Barack Obama is operating quickly and straight to the point on many issues. Apparently he will not pressure Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but he cannot be expected to be a Likud member. Netanyahu will be asked to promise to stop the construction in the settlements and remove illegal outposts to create conditions for negotiations based on the principle of two states for two peoples.

I hope the reports to the effect that Netanyahu will offer the Palestinians self-rule are a joke. After all, the idea of autonomy died even before the death of its inventor, Menachem Begin. There is empathy for Israel in the Obama administration, but it is not blind. The period when we were able to stretch things as far as possible and play for time has ended. And even if everyone there around Obama is nice, we should remember that even a blizzard begins with tiny snowflakes.
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