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Comments:  120
What would be the timetable for Israel strike on Iran?
By Amos Harel
Tags: Haaretz TV, IDF, Israel News 

The timing of Saturday's Times of London article, which claimed that the Israel Defense Forces is training for an attack on Iran on very short notice, is certainly no coincidence. Israel is trying to make clear that even though the United States plans to begin a diplomatic dialogue with Iran, it holds a realistic military option against Tehran's nuclear program. Without a deal that assuages Israel's concerns, there may be no other choice but to attack.

About 10 days ago, Maariv reported that the new prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was briefed on the progress of the IDF's planning on the Iranian question. Supposedly he was happy with what he heard. It's highly probable we will hear and read many more reports of this sort in the near future, mostly in the international media.

Most senior defense figures believe that nothing positive will result from the dialogue between Washington and Tehran. They also acknowledge that Israel's ability to influence the talks is very low and that it would be best for Israel not to be seen as obstructing efforts to resolve the confrontation with Iran peacefully.
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However, the defense establishment is continuing with its preparations for an attack, as well as its signals to the international community and Iran that the plan is serious and feasible.

There appears to be also an American effort to link an operation against Iran with a more favorable approach by Israel to peace with the Palestinians. An article in Yedioth Ahronoth last week suggested that the United States is hinting that its willingness to attack Iran (or permit Israel to do so) will be directly related to the Netanyahu government's flexibility on issues such as evacuating settlements, pullbacks from the West Bank and progress on a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority.

It's too soon to tell if this is a trial balloon from Washington or a clear position. But even if the dialogue with Tehran fails, senior IDF officers doubt whether the United States will allow Israel to go ahead with an offensive operation.

What may be the timetable for a strike? Updated Western intelligence assessments talk of fast Iranian progress and make discussions of a "point of no return" academic. Tehran is near the point where the question of whether it produces a nuclear weapon will be only a matter of choice, not ability.

Sometime in 2010 the Iranians will have enough fissile material for a single weapon; the IAEA says 25 kilograms are necessary. It is unlikely the Iranians will waste the material on demonstrating their abilities through an underground explosion. Most likely they will wait a year or two and build up a stockpile of about 75 kilograms of fissile material, which will suffice for a demonstration and a weapon or two.

The Iranians have another problem: It seems they still have a way to go to be able to place a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel. It is highly unlikely they will be able to mount a nuclear strike on Israel using aircraft-borne weapons, considering the Iranian air force's limitations.

Assessments about the year Iran will be a nuclear country vary, with Israel stressing 2010 (nuclear capable), and the United States estimating - according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates - 2013 (a nuclear weapon). Either way, it's clear the next two to three years will be critical. It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will discuss the Iranian threat publicly, as did Ehud Olmert, or work behind the scenes, as did Ariel Sharon. His choice will not necessarily indicate his decision on a strike against Iran.

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      1.   An Attack Could Destroy Israel`s Relations with Germany 04:04  |  Arik Silverman 19/04/09
      2.   I can`t see this ending well 04:50  |  Mark Leaman 19/04/09
      3.   Israeli strike on Iran... 05:01  |  Mad Iranian 19/04/09
      4.   So the Europeans get angy? 05:06  |  Mark 19/04/09
      5.   #1 thats shows that nobody expects israel to attac 05:39  |  micha 19/04/09
      6.   Iran can`t have a bomb! 05:48  |  Peter 19/04/09
      7.   War is not the answer.... 06:07  |  Wedi Asmara... 19/04/09
      8.   Iran has already reached the point of no return 06:38  |  Joey 19/04/09
      9.   The Iranian Gilly-Suit Brigade 06:48  |  Jeff Northridge 19/04/09
      10.   stay calm 06:52  |  mary 19/04/09
      11.   I`m not sure if it`s going to happen... 06:54  |  Yosemite 19/04/09
      12.   Israel no more 06:57  |  Joe Obama 19/04/09
      13.   ONLY AFTER 07:15  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/04/09
      14.   iran strike 07:17  |  Mark 19/04/09
      15.   Jeff Northridge - The Bigfoot Brigade 08:16  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/04/09
      16.   Israel strike on Iran 08:23  |  Andre Daie 19/04/09
      17.   #12, Mark of Lewiston 08:30  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 19/04/09
      18.   The West should wake up! 08:32  |  Mario Sala 19/04/09
      19.   Wookies? Gilly Suit? 08:55  |  Dan 19/04/09
      20.   nukes for stupid nations stupid people 09:02  |  roland 19/04/09
      21.   now where is my lawn mower ? 09:08  |  SJ 19/04/09
      22.   U.S. CSG`s in GULF 09:10  |  Jacob 19/04/09
      23.   US involvment 09:14  |  mariel 19/04/09
      24.   What? 09:34  |  Maureen Ann 19/04/09
      25.   ISRAEL, IRAN, & US 09:37  |  Bill 19/04/09
      26.   #3 mad iranian knows better than idf generals 09:44  |  v hardman 19/04/09
      27.   no lifes tooken nevermore 10:03  |  roland 19/04/09
      28.   19 Dan - Must Be 10:05  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/04/09
      29.   17 Cipora - War Should be Feared and Avoided 10:16  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/04/09
      30.   WW3 coming soon ! 10:26  |  Benjamina 19/04/09
      31.   #No 1 10:48  |  Andreas 19/04/09
      32.   Timetable for Iran strike - never? 10:53  |  Manny Goldstein 19/04/09
      33.   Israel should pressure the U.S. into arranging talks with Iran 11:17  |  na 19/04/09
      34.   Iran was once Americas best friend in the mideast 11:19  |  Natallie Durson 19/04/09
      35.   12 the michiginer 11:20  |  Israel Starr 19/04/09
      36.   According to Egypt,Hezbollah,Hamas,&Syria are planning an attack 11:27  |  Susanna/Shoshana 19/04/09
      37.   The timetable..?.... Before breakfast...! 11:36  |  Stephen. 19/04/09
      38.   "decisive,quick & elegant",like all our wars 11:43  |  avi bental 19/04/09
      39.   #2 Go ahead Leaman, attack!! 11:50  |  ballistic 19/04/09
      40.   # CJK 12:49  |  Axel 19/04/09
      41.   # 18 mario 12:52  |  Axel 19/04/09
      42.   Iran/Pakistan-militant nuclear states and Israel 12:52  |  Manny Goldstein 19/04/09
      43.   US, UN EU should do their own dirty work 13:10  |  lily 19/04/09
      44.   #29 Manny Goldstein 13:25  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/04/09
      45.   When the moon in the 7th house and Jupiter aligns with Mars 13:28  |  Klaudia 19/04/09
      46.   Axel to CJK, Not rubbish at all. 14:09  |  Tzfonit 19/04/09
      47.   [CENSORED] - but once again 14:22  |  Mark Lincoln 19/04/09
      48.   #29.Manny Goldstein. 14:32  |  Stephen. 19/04/09
      49.   There is no way for attacking Iran to be made "attractive" 14:54  |  Ivar 19/04/09
      50.   #31 Stephen 14:55  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/04/09
      51.   Keeping track of our sailors 15:16  |  Mark Lincoln 19/04/09
      52.   To hell with timetables 15:25  |  Gully Foyle 19/04/09
      53.   judging by israel`s other conflicts 15:40  |  esdras 19/04/09
      54.   # 29 Manny Goldstein, The cjhoice is clear, Iran is the greter... 15:46  |  Israeli Observer 19/04/09
      55.   Two Unacceptable Choices 16:18  |  Tzfonit 19/04/09
      56.   DO NOT SAY A THING, IRANIANS 16:42  |  indrajaya 19/04/09
      57.   Only tiny Israel has the balls to neuter Iran 16:55  |  Mongo 19/04/09
      58.   On the Waterfront 17:01  |  H 19/04/09
      59.   Airborne Capability 17:15  |  BazMann 19/04/09
      60.   Playing Chicken when alone in your own car is one thing 17:35  |  jim the mechanic 19/04/09
      61.   Stop this joke? 17:56  |  Welsh 19/04/09
      62.   #3 Mad Iranian 17:57  |  Sarah 19/04/09
      63.   To Axel 18:12  |  Morris Valentine 19/04/09
      64.   WHAT TIMETABLE 18:31  |  The Teacher/Instruct 19/04/09
      65.   Susanna/Shoshana 18:41  |  PCR 19/04/09
      66.   Two Unacceptable Choices 18:42  |  Tzfonit 19/04/09
      67.   Israel won`t attack Iran! 18:42  |  rigma 19/04/09
      68.   Morris re Your Post to Axel 18:54  |  Persian Kitty 19/04/09
      69.   Nuclear Iran is not a existential problem 19:03  |  airk 19/04/09
      70.   #24 - Well Natallie... 19:35  |  JES 19/04/09
      71.   Iran: It`s just PR belligerence. Fear the locals! 19:39  |  John Mark 19/04/09
      72.   # 38 mv - on the art of discussion 19:53  |  Axel 19/04/09
      73.   Contratulating nº 7 20:06  |  Luiz Felipe Haddad 19/04/09
      74.   Arik Silverman # 1Israel does not care about relations with anyon 20:10  |  American in NY 19/04/09
      75.   Irans threats 20:11  |  The Maintenance Man 19/04/09
      76.   Cipora # 17 Mark L # 13- The messaage would be to Israel not Iran 20:19  |  American in NY 19/04/09
      77.   Perspective 20:22  |  Barton 19/04/09
      78.   timetable? Right after the snowball fight with Lucifer 20:49  |  binny 19/04/09
      79.   JES # 48 It is not the United States of America & Israel 20:49  |  American in NY 19/04/09
      80.   Time tabel...It is all HUFF and BLUFF..OR .. 20:51  |  ali 19/04/09
      81.   Israel - what a pathetic pipsqueak of a country 21:43  |  Clickfool 19/04/09
      82.   israel 21:48  |  arnold schultheis 19/04/09
      83.   Hit them hard NOW!!!! 22:04  |  Redeemed 19/04/09
      84.   For Redeemed # 73 22:19  |  Clickfool 19/04/09
      85.   A stitch in time saves nine. 22:25  |  Samuel Prime 19/04/09
      86.   Israel or iran 22:25  |  interested spectator 19/04/09
      87.   first bibi please return our gas masks 22:45  |  far guess nisht 19/04/09
      88.   the Cat from Alice in Wonderland 03:41  |  Capt Ahab 20/04/09
      89.   Both side have wrong estimation of each other 04:30  |  kia 20/04/09
      90.   Israel straike Iran? 04:43  |  Michelle 20/04/09
      91.   #79 - ANY 07:46  |  JES 20/04/09
      92.   Stop Iran 08:07  |  American 20/04/09
      93.   KIA? 08:42  |  John and the truth 20/04/09
      94.   Bongo/zombio 08:45  |  niccolo 20/04/09
      95.   Blackmail 09:04  |  Bernie 20/04/09
      96.   For Captain Ahab # 88 09:08  |  Clickfool 20/04/09
      97.   JES in Israel 09:37  |  Persian Kitty 20/04/09
      98.   Mark of Lewiston 09:41  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 20/04/09
      99.   Capt Ahab 09:44  |  Persian Kitty 20/04/09
      100.   that would be a bad move! 09:48  |  jim 20/04/09
      101.   Hello #45 Klaudia! 10:29  |  S 20/04/09
      102.   matter of time b4 all muslim nations 10:39  |  Arief Contractor 20/04/09
      103.   #97 - So Kitty... 10:43  |  JES 20/04/09
      104.   Sometime in 2010 the Iranians will have enough fissile material f 11:14  |  esqueleto 20/04/09
      105.   Stop the warmongering now!!!! 11:30  |  Angry European 20/04/09
      106.   JES # 91 re Nat & Pers Kit There is not us, it is the U.S. 16:02  |  American in NY 20/04/09
      107.   ATTACK on ISRAEL??? 18:11  |  Terry cantor 20/04/09
      108.   JES re: About Americas interests 18:19  |  American in NY 20/04/09
      109.   #106 - ANY 18:24  |  JES 20/04/09
      110.   attack on iran 19:49  |  jay 20/04/09
      111.   #1 Arik Silverman - Remember Zyklon B? 19:54  |  Yonatan 20/04/09
      112.   ALL OF YOU - Won`t G-D Stop Iran?? 22:11  |  Daniel 20/04/09
      113.   Please attack Iran now....the world would let Israel be destroyed 22:30  |  josh 20/04/09
      114.   The USA will totally support Israel!!! 22:55  |  JTA 20/04/09
      115.   Taking all wagers.... 23:19  |  Jay Dennison 20/04/09
      116.   JES American interests 2/3 03:34  |  American in NY 21/04/09
      117.   JES American interests 3/3 03:35  |  American in NY 21/04/09
      118.   #2 Mad Iranian 04:07  |  Sabra 21/04/09
      119.   # 34 MAtalie durson 04:12  |  Alisson 21/04/09
      120.   What would be the timetable for Israel Strike 19:52  |  oh-so-close 23/04/09
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