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Yossi Melman / I would advise Netanyahu to attack Iran
By Yossi Melman
Tags: U.S., nuclear program, Iran 

If I were Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security adviser, I would advise attacking Iran. It doesn't have to happen immediately. Although Iran has crossed the "technological threshold" and already has most of the know-how, the equipment and the materials to enable it to create a nuclear bomb, it will take anther year at least, and maybe even three, to implement the potential and the capability it has accumulated.

In any case, Israel must wait in order to not disrupt U.S. President Barack Obama's strategy of talking to Iran, a strategy that is destined to fail.

These are the main considerations that should determine whether or not to attack:
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1. Would nuclear weapons in Iranian hands really constitute a clear and present danger to the existence of Israel?

2. Does Israel have the intelligence and operational capability to enable it to strike hard at Iran's nuclear sites?

3. What damage would be caused to Israel by an Iranian response?

4. Would an Israeli attack harm vital U.S. interests?

5. How would the Arab world react to such an attack?

As an adviser, here are my answers.

1. It is not certain that nuclear bombs in Iranian hands would necessarily constitute an existential threat to Israel. The Gulf states, such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, should be more afraid than Israel, and in fact they are extremely worried. It is also difficult to imagine that the ayatollahs would use nuclear weapons. Such a use would not only eradicate the nation being attacked, it would also destroy the regime of the religious leaders as well as the lives of millions of people in Iran. But Israel will still have difficulty trusting in the rationalism of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ayatollah Ali Khomanei.

2. Israel has the military ability to cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear program, to hit the nerve centers of production: the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, the uranium conversion facility in Isfahan and several additional sites where they are working on assembling the bomb. Such as attack would delay Iran's nuclear capability by several years, but would not destroy it entirely.

3. Iran has about 100 missiles that can reach Israel, and would also activate Hezbollah and its terror networks worldwide. But in spite of its technological achievements, Iran is a backward country, burdened with the problems of prostitution, drugs, poverty, ignorance and above all, corruption. It is doubtful whether a country that is riddled with rot is capable of maintaining a strong and efficient army. Iran is a paper tiger.

4. An attack that is not coordinated with Washington would cause a deep rift with the United States and lead to the imposition of harsh sanctions against Israel.

5. The Arab and Muslim world would condemn Israel.

Ostensibly, the obvious conclusion from these answers is that an attack against Iran is too great a gamble, one that the Israeli leadership should not take. That is also the reigning opinion among senior members of the Obama administration - from Vice President Joe Biden to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who recently spoke on the subject - and most U.S. experts.

An exception to this group thinking can be found in words written recently by editor David Samuels in the online magazine Slate, in an article entitled, "Why Israel will bomb Iran." The essence of his assumptions, which favor attack, are as follows: Israel's special status in the United States stems not only from common cultural values and the Christian belief in the Holy Land and from the memory of the horrors of the Holocaust, but also, and primarily, from Israel's image as the lone ranger who fights the bad guys in the Wild West of the Middle East, in order to defend its existence. Recently there have been cracks in this image due to what are seen as Israel's failures in the most recent campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. In Samuels' opinion, Israeli weakness is undermining strategic cooperation with the United States, while Iran is trying to achieve regional hegemony.

According to Samuels, while an Israeli attack may serve American interests, it will force the Obama administration to behave as though those interests have actually been harmed. The angry Arab and Muslim world will always suspect that Washington was a secret partner and gave Israel the green light to attack. In order to assuage Arab Muslim anger, the United States will have to force Israel to withdraw from the territories and enable the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Therefore, a good adviser must tell Netanyahu: Don't wait until they force you to do something you don't want to do. Preempt it. An attack on Iran is a window of opportunity that could not only remove the nuclear threat, but also restore Israel's status as a regional superpower and its image as crazy and unpredictable and a state which will stop at nothing.

The truth is that such an attack serves the interests of the United States, the West and the Arab world, but they would find it difficult to admit it and would be forced to respond harshly to an Israeli offensive. Therefore, if I were the national security adviser, I would explain to the prime minister than an attack alone, even if it succeeds, would not serve Israel's true national interests.

In order to implement a strategic breakthrough, the Israeli government will have to orchestrate a formative historic event. It must agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state and operate at a feverish pace to that end. In such a case, not only would the United States and the pro-Western Sunni Arab world accept the attack on their Shi'ite rival, they would even welcome it, thus making it possible to pave the way to more peace agreements with Arab nations, security arangements a strategic alliance based on common interests.


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      1.   make war to have peace? Nuttiness on a grand scale 05:53  |  Shelley 17/04/09
      2.   Attacking Iran 06:20  |  Herzl 17/04/09
      3.   Attacking Iran 06:30  |  Mehrdad 17/04/09
      4.   Paper Tiger vs. Bernie Madoff 06:33  |  Iranian-american 17/04/09
      5.   Attack can`t be linked to Palestinian State 06:37  |  Mark Leaman 17/04/09
      6.   yossi`s hash supplier? 06:40  |  David 17/04/09
      7.   How to attack Iran 06:46  |  Carole Clarke 17/04/09
      8.   Melman and Iran 06:53  |  Peter in Beirut 17/04/09
      9.   Yossi Melman 06:54  |  cy 17/04/09
      10.   Short Term Thinking 06:56  |  Mark of Lewiston 17/04/09
      11.   It is much easier to make a case for attacking Israel 07:16  |  Natallie Durson 17/04/09
      12.   To Bomb Or Not To Bomb 07:25  |  Yosemite 17/04/09
      13.   Let them condem Israel 08:00  |  Nationalist 17/04/09
      14.   whether to attack iran or not 08:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 17/04/09
      15.   Oh me G*d, here comes the revolution in the ME...!!! 08:09  |  Esther 17/04/09
      16.   Obama or O bomb ah 08:30  |  Ilan 17/04/09
      17.   Baseball 08:48  |  Joseph 17/04/09
      18.   I would advise not to bomb 08:53  |  dani.a 17/04/09
      19.   Israelis more dangerous than Iran 08:57  |  Natallie Durson 17/04/09
      20.   so u admit being server of U.S 09:06  |  Ivan 17/04/09
      21.   Israel will probably attack 09:12  |  arik 17/04/09
      22.   There`s no need to attack Iran. This regime will fall. 09:17  |  Shlomo from Tel-Aviv 17/04/09
      23.   Yossi Melman 09:42  |  steve wolk 17/04/09
      24.   Some items 10:00  |  Mad Iranian 17/04/09
      25.   Hanna 10:02  |  You`re on your own. 17/04/09
      26.   Well that`s a novel way of looking at it 10:07  |  Peter Williams 17/04/09
      27.   I hate to admit it, but Yossi Melman has a point...... 10:14  |  Swiss (Dino) 17/04/09
      28.   To BBS News 10:23  |  TonyL 17/04/09
      29.   go for it ! bomb Iran ! no guts to do it ? 10:27  |  just facts 17/04/09
      30.   Israel must attack Iran for world peace 10:41  |  Baruch Gold 17/04/09
      31.   I would too 10:44  |  Colin Wright 17/04/09
      32.   An attack on Iran would be not just bad... BUT VERY BAD 10:44  |  Joey 17/04/09
      33.   Oh the irony 10:46  |  SC 17/04/09
      34.   THE ONLY PROBLEM FOR YOSSI 10:49  |  indrajaya 17/04/09
      35.   Wrong advice. Iran is drifting all alone. 10:51  |  Stephen. 17/04/09
      36.   Iran -Paper tiger 11:27  |  Aditya 17/04/09
      37.   ISREAL AND IT`S FAILURES 11:52  |  VIPER 17/04/09
      38.   An alternative response 12:02  |  Rod 17/04/09
      39.   reply to 31. I would too 12:21  |  kindoo 17/04/09
      40.   an alternative view continued 12:21  |  Rod 17/04/09
      41.   All I have to say is.... 12:42  |  Bobby 17/04/09
      42.   Well if the Iranians would not have thought ... 12:43  |  Edith 17/04/09
      43.   Where are the Russians when you need them? 13:00  |  a wandering Jew 17/04/09
      44.   mistake 13:03  |  udi 17/04/09
      45.   the rest of the world cannot admit it..... 13:03  |  we are not JEWS 17/04/09
      46.   Baruch the crook from Hebron 13:06  |  your enemy Baruch 17/04/09
      47.   To Yosemite # 12 13:15  |  rm 17/04/09
      48.   yossi`s in for an awe full surprise 13:38  |  avi porter 17/04/09
      49.   he may be a crook,but he`s not from hebron 13:47  |  avi grunt 17/04/09
      50.   In 2003 Saudi Arabia signed a deal with Pakistan 13:49  |  Chris Linthwaite 17/04/09
      51.   dear mr. melman,please follow this up 14:03  |  uzi jeearssi 17/04/09
      52.   Israel = Iran 14:17  |  Mullah 17/04/09
      53.   The arab nations would be happy to have iran off their backs 15:37  |  Jack 17/04/09
      54.   Tehran would be good place to start 15:55  |  Israel 17/04/09
      55.   By all means - attack now. 16:07  |  Hank N Tennessee 17/04/09
      56.   Iran, Iran, Iran 17:09  |  Anonymous 17/04/09
      57.   The "conditio sine qua non" is... 17:42  |  Ardi 17/04/09
      58.   The non-Melman side of Israel 17:45  |  Yosi 17/04/09
      59.   @ 43 indeed very good question, where are the Russians. 17:54  |  Jew- and Bookburner 17/04/09
      60.   Iran: Does it REALLY want nuclear weapons? 17:57  |  John Mark 17/04/09
      61.   Lol, What country is he describing? 18:01  |  steve 17/04/09
      62.   Yossi the Adviser 18:01  |  Majid 17/04/09
      63.   The US created the problem. Suicide for Israel to fix it! 18:26  |  David Turner 17/04/09
      64.   Melman`s flawed analysis 18:35  |  Brod 17/04/09
      65.   Extrimists abound 18:37  |  Average Joe 17/04/09
      66.   no 59 David Turner 18:50  |  Steve 17/04/09
      67.   100 missiles: are u serious 18:51  |  independent 17/04/09
      68.   No mention of the suspicions 19:05  |  Chris Linthwaite 17/04/09
      69.   Attack? For what? Words? Kill more babies? 19:08  |  Alaska 17/04/09
      70.   Yossi Melman 19:21  |  Jo 17/04/09
      71.   Yossi Melman is 100% right 19:26  |  Still posts here 17/04/09
      72.   Stupid idea 19:32  |  Raf 17/04/09
      73.   I wonder... 20:06  |  christoph 17/04/09
      74.   Where have you gone, Dick Nixon? 20:35  |  Ken 17/04/09
      75.   Melman is wrong 20:45  |  Brod 17/04/09
      76.   Melmans` Definition of Iranian Society 20:53  |  Yaakov Sullivan 17/04/09
      77.   Yossi Melman, an evil genius 20:58  |  John 17/04/09
      78.   Crazy 21:00  |  Mike 17/04/09
      79.   #62 Brod surely not 22:48  |  Still posts here 17/04/09
      80.   attacking Iran/ doing a Palestinian deal 22:59  |  Michael 17/04/09
      81.   The Question Not Allowed 23:17  |  Mark Lincoln 17/04/09
      82.   Moshiach will be very upset with Israel 23:54  |  Dave 17/04/09
      83.   73 Mark Lincoln - Spoilsport 23:57  |  Mark of Lewiston 17/04/09
      84.   Melman delirious 00:29  |  Al 18/04/09
      85.   I love still posts here`s thinking... 00:57  |  BBSNews 18/04/09
      86.   Geez. 01:18  |  Peter 18/04/09
      87.   #77 Mark Lincoln 01:19  |  Chris Linthwaite 18/04/09
      88.   Silliest, most convoluted logic I`ve encountered recently 01:21  |  Raymond in DC 18/04/09
      89.   Extrem Makeover 02:01  |  Simon 18/04/09
      90.   Advice to Netanyahu 06:33  |  Mike 18/04/09
      91.   Pigeon squawks of Hari Kari suicide 07:11  |  allang 18/04/09
      92.   BOOK OF EZRA 07:53  |  CYRUS 18/04/09
      93.   PLEASE STOP THE HATRED!!!!! 07:58  |  Mohammad Kazemi 18/04/09
      94.   #77, Mark Lincoln 08:38  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 18/04/09
      95.   You Sure? 09:28  |  Ehsan 18/04/09
      96.   Amusement Value 10:07  |  Iain 18/04/09
      97.   Melman the expert advisor 10:11  |  Ryan Zito 18/04/09
      98.   when you discuss an attack for for years 10:23  |  hula gutimur 18/04/09
      99.   Melman must be chuckling to himself... 10:41  |  Esther 18/04/09
      100.   I strongly disagree with Melman... 10:44  |  S 18/04/09
      101.   Misunderstanding 11:06  |  dani.a 18/04/09
      102.   Ryan Zito #93 and all the rest of us 11:50  |  Rod 18/04/09
      103.   Attack on Iran 12:50  |  Mladen 18/04/09
      104.   The pot calling the kettle black 13:13  |  Danny 18/04/09
      105.   Natallie and e"xotic weapons" 16:13  |  Nano 18/04/09
      106.   The simple question that needs to be asked. 16:28  |  Johnboy 18/04/09
      107.   When the time is right 16:52  |  Nechama 18/04/09
      108.   Goose and gander 17:01  |  BazMann 18/04/09
      109.   #101, Nano 17:03  |  Adam 18/04/09
      110.   83-Chris Linthwait how convenient ! 18:07  |  Akram Zekaria 18/04/09
      111.   But BazMann #104... who started first... 18:41  |  Esther 18/04/09
      112.   "i would advise attack...not serve israel interest" 19:04  |  lemmy cochen 18/04/09
      113.   Johnboy Irony #106 19:44  |  FOX 18/04/09
      114.   Adam 20:29  |  Nano 18/04/09
      115.   Mark Lincoln`s Big Question #81 22:12  |  FOX 18/04/09
      116.   Given the strategic thinking in recent years - Cipora 22:58  |  Mark Lincoln 18/04/09
      117.   johnboy south west sydney 23:24  |  elimelech 18/04/09
      118.   johnboy israel can hit iran 23:57  |  harzion 18/04/09
      119.   Harzion 02:40  |  Persian Kitty 19/04/09
      120.   Peace is not on the Islamic card ! 02:41  |  Akram Zekaria 19/04/09
      121.   Iran strikes 02:42  |  Hank 19/04/09
      122.   dump 02:44  |  c. schmidt 19/04/09
      123.   # 115 Fox..... crystal-ball opinions 04:19  |  allang 19/04/09
      124.   Suggested expression correction 05:02  |  Pluto 19/04/09
      125.   This cup shall not pass 05:44  |  Mike 19/04/09
      126.   #116, Mark Linncoln 08:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 19/04/09
      127.   Survival 08:48  |  Iain 19/04/09
      128.   116-Mark Lincoln Isn`t time to look at the big Picture of change? 09:45  |  Akram Zekaria 19/04/09
      129.   Attacking Iran 15:13  |  Robert 19/04/09
      130.   China the threat 13:23  |  G.Gibson 20/04/09
      131.   Time for peace; time for war 13:39  |  Edwin 21/04/09
      132.   What are you smoking Melman? 18:38  |  Mohammed 21/04/09
      133.   SO WOULD I 08:14  |  RME 22/04/09
      134.   war 18:04  |  gie joe 22/04/09
      135.   handdlee 18:16  |  gie joe 22/04/09
      136.   Spank Iran and let the world cry with them 09:42  |  REDEEMED 03/05/09
      137.   Attack or not... 23:46  |  Craig 03/05/09
      138.   Iran Threat Lie 07:26  |  t 03/10/09
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