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South Koreans watch footage of a North Korean 1998 missile launch, in Seoul railway station on Sunday.
(Reuters)
Last update - 13:33 06/04/2009
Amos Harel / What North Korea's missile means for Israel and Iran
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News, Iran 

Although world intelligence agencies have assessed that North Korea's satellite launch on Sunday was a failure, it must still be seen as a bold provocation by Pyongyang, directed at the United States.

North Korea defied the Obama administration, while ignoring an explicit United Nations security council ban and Washington's preliminary warnings.

While the American president reacted acridly, he has not taken substantial action.
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North Korea has endured sanctions for years - and yet it still launched the rocket on Sunday, so continuing its convoluted tango with the international community: one step forward, two backwards, repeat.

This is Barak Obama's first international test as U.S. president, one expected to take much of his time, despite the understandable priority he has given to battling the financial crisis both on the home-front and abroad.

Iran is sure to track U.S. behavior in the wake of this affair with special interest.

In a few months' time, Washington is expected to commence its diplomatic dialogue with Teheran, ultimately aiming to impede Iran's contentious nuclear program.

Obama has already committed to this dialogue, regardless of developments with North Korea. But if he is soft with Pyongyang - if the Iranians get the impression that the new president is not hard enough or experienced enough as a negotiator - Tehran could reach troubling conclusions.

A little less than a year ago, Israel harbored a false hope that the United States would bomb Iranian nuclear sites or even give Israel a green light to act in its stead.

That did not happen with the Bush administration. On George Bush's last visit to Israel in May, he even went so far as to clarify that the U.S. traffic light remains bright red.

A similar message, one may assume, was also passed on during talks between U.S. Joint Chief of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen and his counterpart Gabi Ashkenazi on the sidelines of last weekend's NATO conferrence.

Israel's defense establishment now estimates that the prospect of Obama agreeing to such an attack are even slimmer.

The North Korea-Iran tie is deeper. Dr. Ephraim Kam, deputy director of The Institute for National Security Studies, says that the Iranian missile program relies on Pyongyang technology and know-how.

When North Korea launches a rocket, one which could in the future carry a ton of explosives across 6,000 kilometers, it is assumed that Iran is just a few steps behind.

Tal Inbar, director of the space division of the The Fisher Brothers Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, explains that there is just one rocket technology being tested - not two.

The ability to launch a satellite, he says, is relevant to launching a long rage ballistic rocket. No country is successful in its first try, he adds, and some even fail the second time around.

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      1.   What North Korea`s missile means for Israel and Iran? 12:03  |  Natallie Durson 06/04/09
      2.   Iranian Techicians Were Present in North Korea 12:18  |  Yonatan Maisel 06/04/09
      3.   North Korea 12:39  |  JW 06/04/09
      4.   Gd works in mysterious ways. 13:29  |  Jew 06/04/09
      5.   To Natallie #1 13:57  |  Ben-Africa 06/04/09
      6.   Analytically,this is pure sophistry 15:29  |  Bitin Dawg 06/04/09
      7.   #4 16:17  |  Rivi 06/04/09
      8.   to Yonatan Maisel and one more question 17:10  |  JBT 06/04/09
      9.   America is Finished 17:14  |  UsedToPostHere 06/04/09
      10.   Sanctions 17:34  |  Zen 06/04/09
      11.   BHO policy vs.Teddy Roosevelt-Speak loudly but carry small stick. 17:59  |  commons sense 06/04/09
      12.   Ms. Durson is correct. Again. 18:09  |  Lou Medel 06/04/09
      13.   #4 Jew. About Good and Evil. 18:14  |  Lou Medel 06/04/09
      14.   to zen 19:21  |  Teyede Tiliguishte 06/04/09
      15.   #4 - Jew 19:25  |  Daniel 06/04/09
      16.   Durson:You are correct 19:26  |  Christopher 06/04/09
      17.   NK ($40 billion) has 5% GDP of Iran ($800 billion) 19:27  |  Tehran Joe 06/04/09
      18.   #9 Used To Post Here. 19:31  |  Daniel 06/04/09
      19.   Refighting the Korean War 20:20  |  Mark of Lewiston 06/04/09
      20.   To JBT #8 20:35  |  Doug 06/04/09
      21.   What North Korea`s missile means for Israel? 20:44  |  Efrain Silverstein 06/04/09
      22.   No meaning 20:47  |  Mad Iranian 06/04/09
      23.   WAS THE TEST A FAILURE? 22:01  |  Arik Silverman 06/04/09
      24.   Yonatan Maisel 23:01  |  6f 06/04/09
      25.   #4 Jew 23:05  |  6F 06/04/09
      26.   UsedToPostHere 23:07  |  6f 06/04/09
      27.   to Zen Sanctions 23:19  |  Marc 06/04/09
      28.   Western world has its own interests 23:34  |  Georges Saab 06/04/09
      29.   #9 Well BJ, if "America is finished", er, 00:14  |  ballistic 07/04/09
      30.   N.Korean Missle test 01:10  |  H.J. 07/04/09
      31.   N.Korea/Iran Missile test results 02:45  |  Sandy 07/04/09
      32.   Zen - Amusing 03:11  |  Mark of Lewiston 07/04/09
      33.   What is Means 03:17  |  Mark of Lewiston 07/04/09
      34.   15 Sandy - Uncle Sam Needs You & 200,000 of your friends 04:00  |  Mark of Lewiston 07/04/09
      35.   Mark (22) and Marc (27) 16:03  |  Zen 07/04/09
      36.   Sandy # 31 nonsense 16:26  |  American in NY 07/04/09
      37.   Mark # 34 16:36  |  American in NY 07/04/09
      38.   re: 6f 02:18  |  UsedToPostHere 08/04/09
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