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PM Benjamin Netanyahu in a special session of the Knesset, marking the 30th anniversary of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, in Jerusalem.
 (Reuters)
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Last update - 14:22 03/04/2009
Aluf Benn / Will Netanyahu attack Iran?
By Aluf Benn
Tags: iran, israel news 

"I promise that if I am elected, Iran will not acquire nuclear arms, and this implies everything necessary to carry this out," Benjamin Netanyahu said before the elections. In other speeches Netanyahu described Iran's nuclear program as "an existential threat for Israel," and warned that it risked a second Holocaust. Does his return as prime minister necessarily bring Israel nearer to war with Iran?

In political circles the view is that yes, Netanyahu as prime minister brings Israel closer to war with Iran. Politicians in touch with Netanyahu say he has already made up his mind to destroy Iran's nuclear installations. People close to him wonder how the public would receive a joint decision by Netanyahu and Ehud Barak to attack Iran, and whether the move would boost the two men's popularity. The basic assumption is that diplomacy and sanctions will not gain a thing, and the only way to stop Iran's nuclear program will be by force, which only Israel is motivated to apply.

This is also the assessment of the international media, who consider an Israeli strike against Iran a near certainty. European governments are practicing evacuating their citizens from Iran in case a "third party" strikes the nuclear installations. Israel's veiled threats "that no option should be lifted from the table," which were meant to push the international community to intensify pressure and sanctions on Iran to prevent war, have had the opposite effect. The international community has become convinced that Israel will act on its own, so it does not need to do a thing.
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Inside Israel's security-strategic community, opinions are divided. Experts estimate that the air force can reach Iran and strike the nuclear installations. Such a strike would give us three to four years which, if properly utilized, would allow for diplomacy to prevent the nuclear project's resumption. Some observers note that after the bombing of the Iraqi reactor in 1981, critics of the attack claimed that Saddam Hussein would be able to rebuild in three to four years, but this never happened.

However, despite our operational capabilities - which remain unproven - many defense experts say an attack against Iran is "too big a mission for Israel." They raise two main arguments: concerns that Iran's response will be harsh and start a general war, even if the operation fails, and more importantly, the United States' determined opposition to an independent Israeli operation. This view is held by Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The defense experts say that without a green light from Washington, Netanyahu and Barak will not be able to send in the air force.

Former prime minister Ehud Olmert hoped to neutralize Iran's nuclear program differently, and we can assume that Israel managed to delay the project by a few years; maybe even a decade. But that sort of activity has been exhausted. The Iranians have overcome the difficulties and managed to cross the "technological threshold" of enriching uranium, according to the head of Military Intelligence.

About a year ago, Olmert and Barak presented then-president George W. Bush with a list of requests that were meant, according to commentators, to make an Israeli air strike on Iran easier. Bush was frightened and the administration issued strong messages calling on Israel not to take action. Since then, reports have appeared in the foreign media of long-distance training by the Israeli air force in Greece, and of air strikes in Sudan, along with calming U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran was not close to having a bomb. Olmert changed his position, and after promising that "Iran will not have nuclear capabilities," he explained that there are limits to Israel's capabilities.

Netanyahu is counting on Barack Obama, and on their meeting next month, where he will tell Obama that history will judge his presidency over the way he handles the Iranian nuclear program. The question is whether Netanyahu's abilities to be convincing and his sophisticated English will allow him to alter Obama's agenda: preventing Pakistan and its nuclear arms from falling into the hands of the Taliban and Al-Qaida, while trying to buy quiet from Iran. It is doubtful whether even an Israeli proposal to pull back from the Golan Heights and evacuate settlements in the West Bank will lead Obama to bomb Iran, or let Netanyahu order an attack. Israel will have to try to reach an understanding with Obama centered on dealing with Iran.

All this suggests that the rise of Netanyahu to power increases the chances of war with Iran, but the "point of no return" has not yet been crossed.

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      1.   To Bomb or Not To Bomb 02:26  |  hsk01945 01/04/09
      2.   Insanity, and Israel will disappear 02:30  |  Shelley 01/04/09
      3.   Good on ya Bibi! 08:07  |  Natallie Durson 01/04/09
      4.   It is rather: entertaining 08:50  |  Persian 01/04/09
      5.   Man, that`s unbridled arrogance, isn`t it...... 08:52  |  Johnboy 01/04/09
      6.   PROBABLY HE WILL FULFILL HIS PROMISE 09:11  |  indrajaya 01/04/09
      7.   Read The Bible 09:15  |  Markos 01/04/09
      8.   The Holocaust? NEVER AGAIN!! Bombs Away! 09:37  |  Yonatan Maisel 01/04/09
      9.   popularity? 09:54  |  Jacob 01/04/09
      10.   solution : exchange bomb for bomb 10:16  |  just facts 01/04/09
      11.   You know, it`s a truism..... 10:19  |  Johnboy 01/04/09
      12.   on english and superficial analyses 10:24  |  Hani 01/04/09
      13.   The book of Ezekiel says Israel wins 10:25  |  Ezekial chapter 38 01/04/09
      14.   the price will be the green line 10:27  |  fred 01/04/09
      15.   Iran diplomacy is doomed to failure 10:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 01/04/09
      16.   "Will he won`t he" Netanyahu and Iran 10:37  |  DT 01/04/09
      17.   NATALIE Pres. Obama has already commited to continue 10:47  |  PETER SM 01/04/09
      18.   Markos, 7: "live by the sword, die by the swrord" & "don`t steal" 10:52  |  Ivar 01/04/09
      19.   I know one thing 10:55  |  GaileeHero 01/04/09
      20.   For Natalie Durson 10:58  |  Danalogue 01/04/09
      21.   Bible version??? 11:46  |  john and the TRUTH! 01/04/09
      22.   JOHNBOY Man that`s an April 1 comment.An unsourced unverfiable 11:59  |  PETER SM 01/04/09
      23.   No Choice 12:00  |  Amir 01/04/09
      24.   Nuclear Iran and Netanyahu 12:00  |  Dr albert haccoun 01/04/09
      25.   A military strike will never work 12:07  |  Ron 01/04/09
      26.   #15, Danalogue 12:14  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 01/04/09
      27.   #3 Natallie Durson (Real or Fake) 12:16  |  Daybreak 01/04/09
      28.   The power in America solicited by Netanyahu for support 12:25  |  Ivar 01/04/09
      29.   Live by the sword you mean the Pals that still want to obliterate 12:26  |  PETER SM 01/04/09
      30.   It is good to know your size 12:32  |  Palestinian 01/04/09
      31.   THE QUR`AN on Israel.!! 12:35  |  PETER SM 01/04/09
      32.   Iran is not 10 feet long 12:38  |  US Taxpayer 01/04/09
      33.   The attack on Iran has very high likelihood 12:40  |  ml 01/04/09
      34.   # 11, CIPY 12:49  |  indrajaya 01/04/09
      35.   US should consider 12:57  |  John Syracuse 01/04/09
      36.   Confrontation is unavoidable, but don`t expect a repeat of Osiraq 13:12  |  Mark Leaman 01/04/09
      37.   @Durson 13:16  |  Ralph 01/04/09
      38.   # 8 is right, 7 and 9 are nuts 13:26  |  JJ 01/04/09
      39.   Iran has every right to be strong and have nukes 13:32  |  KA 01/04/09
      40.   The Iranian Bomb would be no threat to Israel 13:35  |  Jack 01/04/09
      41.   Persian 13:36  |  X` 01/04/09
      42.   Forget Iran 13:36  |  Jeff 01/04/09
      43.   Israel wants to be the only bully on the block 13:37  |  L A 01/04/09
      44.   try something besides threats and sticks israel 13:42  |  annie 01/04/09
      45.   To Markos 7 13:54  |  Swiss 01/04/09
      46.   The Folly of Bombing Iran 13:58  |  Moshe 01/04/09
      47.   BIBI IS FULL OF HOT AIR 14:03  |  wistle blower 01/04/09
      48.   IRAN ATTACK 14:13  |  ANNA 01/04/09
      49.   The response of the enemy 14:18  |  Murray 01/04/09
      50.   US should consider 14:25  |  John Syracuse 01/04/09
      51.   Ezekial chapter 38 #9 14:26  |  Ezekiel 01/04/09
      52.   #21: Israel would be mad to attack Iran 14:27  |  Jeff 01/04/09
      53.   Ezekial chapter 38 #9 14:32  |  Ezekiel 01/04/09
      54.   Iran Demands the War 14:34  |  justsomeguy 01/04/09
      55.   Survival vs Mushroom Cloud 14:35  |  Brod 01/04/09
      56.   To those who think Israel will bomb 14:35  |  Aussie 01/04/09
      57.   Persian,Iran has lost every war since 333 BC, 14:38  |  Absolute Sweden 01/04/09
      58.   The fantacy and the reality 14:48  |  Shimon_Of_Sydney 01/04/09
      59.   Will Netanyahu attack Iran? 14:50  |  Elina 01/04/09
      60.   #13PeterSM. About donations. 14:51  |  Maureen Ann 01/04/09
      61.   Israel can survice an Iranian retaliation. 14:57  |  David 01/04/09
      62.   to Markos 14:59  |  JBT 01/04/09
      63.   SoS. 31, read Reuters for just WHO is making the threats 15:04  |  Ivar 01/04/09
      64.   Netanyahu is a danger 15:06  |  dani.a 01/04/09
      65.   Israel`s mania will not end until it hass 15:08  |  Mark Lincoln 01/04/09
      66.   Great one, #3, Natalie Durson! Obama should love it! 15:11  |  Ivar 01/04/09
      67.   Allowance? 15:15  |  Sam 01/04/09
      68.   ezekiel chapter 38 15:19  |  potobac 01/04/09
      69.   iran air raids by IAF will be suicide raids with pilots captured 15:23  |  Uri Levy 01/04/09
      70.   Why is it important for Israel to be the first to strike? 15:27  |  Jean Van Daem 01/04/09
      71.   Nuclear Weapons 15:30  |  Max 01/04/09
      72.   PETER SM 15:38  |  Natallie Durson 01/04/09
      73.   this requires great delicacy 15:39  |  abe sorbin 01/04/09
      74.   Peaceful Iran 15:41  |  Albrecht Klein 01/04/09
      75.   Make my day 15:43  |  Alan Woods 01/04/09
      76.   The difference between Obama and Netanyahu is that Obama has 15:44  |  Muslim 01/04/09
      77.   Benn Underestimates the Arrogance of This Lot 15:48  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      78.   Israel Iran War 16:05  |  Majid 01/04/09
      79.   Obama`s Support Worth Nothing 16:19  |  Ariel 01/04/09
      80.   #15 Cipora Julianna kohn 16:20  |  Mark B. 01/04/09
      81.   Are you crazy?????? 16:34  |  Anonymous 01/04/09
      82.   Obama will say No so he can blsuter all he wants , it will be USA 16:35  |  r 01/04/09
      83.   Aluf Benn 16:36  |  Chris Linthwaite 01/04/09
      84.   Obama will do whatever Bibi wants 16:38  |  Anchimaa Toka 01/04/09
      85.   Why Iran But Not Pakistan?? 16:39  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      86.   And thus Israel becomes level with ash 16:40  |  Iranian Jew 01/04/09
      87.   Netanyahu will tell Obama... 16:43  |  James 01/04/09
      88.   To be honest 16:48  |  Siad 01/04/09
      89.   Knocking down the straw-men 16:49  |  Morris Valentine 01/04/09
      90.   for those that use god, bible, aliens, gnomes to justify war 16:57  |  kaled 01/04/09
      91.   The one thing the Israeli people still fail to understand..... 16:57  |  Swiss (Dino) 01/04/09
      92.   To Mark B (#80), who`d warm his backside with the ashes of Israel 16:58  |  Morris Valentine 01/04/09
      93.   German submarines 17:06  |  bobby 01/04/09
      94.   #89 Morris Valentine, what did Ahmadinejad say? Same as Hitler? 17:12  |  Mark B. 01/04/09
      95.   Iran 17:15  |  F15 Strike Eagle 01/04/09
      96.   hassah 17:18  |  Habibi 01/04/09
      97.   The world will be hell 17:24  |  Frank 01/04/09
      98.   Nutanyahu`s wet dream will not occur. 17:26  |  Lou Medel 01/04/09
      99.   #92 Morris Valentine from sunny and warm California 17:27  |  Mark B. 01/04/09
      100.   Read the Tea Leaves, Israel 17:29  |  Knott Bushman 01/04/09
      101.   Israelis could be sky rocketed into Timbucktu .... 17:31  |  Dutch 01/04/09
      102.   Iran has made direct threats of its wish to destroy Israel 17:36  |  BIG SUR 01/04/09
      103.   HSK1945 From MA 17:36  |  Persian Kitty 01/04/09
      104.   Natalie Iranian Poster |Girl from Iran (not Calif) 17:39  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      105.   Johnboy and his aging champ (#11) 17:42  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      106.   BIG SUR on Iran 17:44  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      107.   Israel`s insanity 17:46  |  pro-Israel pro-pece 01/04/09
      108.   M . Haccoun 17:48  |  Robert/Montreal 01/04/09
      109.   Netanyahu is a loose cannon 17:50  |  American 01/04/09
      110.   Absolute Sweden 17:54  |  Persian Kitty 01/04/09
      111.   Erehwon`s (sic) tea leaves 17:55  |  bobby 01/04/09
      112.   Persian Kitty - a better referrence 17:58  |  Mark Lincoln 01/04/09
      113.   pakistan 18:05  |  david 01/04/09
      114.   Big Sur 18:08  |  Persian Kitty 01/04/09
      115.   Media hipe 18:08  |  Paul 01/04/09
      116.   Bibi - DONT ATTACK IRAN 18:09  |  Tao 01/04/09
      117.   Yaakov Sullivan you lucked out on this one quote Arab Paper 18:11  |  BIG SUR 01/04/09
      118.   Part 2 for Yaakov I used to think you used some authority in your 18:14  |  BIG SUR 01/04/09
      119.   #94 Mark B. 18:14  |  Daybreak 01/04/09
      120.   to # 104 18:15  |  Paul 01/04/09
      121.   Bombing Iran - April`s Fool 18:17  |  Realist 01/04/09
      122.   Mark Lincoln 18:17  |  Persian Kitty 01/04/09
      123.   Will West evacuate from Iran yet stay in Israel? 18:19  |  Chanalau, Tova 01/04/09
      124.   #114 Persian Kitty I do not demonise 18:24  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      125.   pERSIAN kITTY i WILL REFRAIN FROM POSTER GIRL REMARKS FOR YOU 18:28  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      126.   BIG SUR, Your Quote Means Nothing 18:32  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      127.   Paul #120 who started and sponsored Hesbulloh? 18:33  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      128.   You know that little treat you always wanted? 18:33  |  H 01/04/09
      129.   P103ersian Kitty # you need to do your preaching to ahmadinejad 18:46  |  another hypocrite ic 01/04/09
      130.   Dear Yaakov thanks for confirming your last statement incorrect 18:48  |  BIG SUR 01/04/09
      131.   Israel in more danger ? 18:57  |  Petras Vilson 01/04/09
      132.   Economy and war 18:59  |  arik 01/04/09
      133.   Pali # 30 when will you people get real? 19:17  |  Mongo 01/04/09
      134.   #126 Yaakov 2nd try 19:22  |  BIG SUR 01/04/09
      135.   Mutual Assured Destruction # 2 19:31  |  Eaglebeak 01/04/09
      136.   Not without Obama on board, please. 19:33  |  Fortuna Benmayor 01/04/09
      137.   #132 arik, how wonderfull it all sounds 19:38  |  Mark B. 01/04/09
      138.   It is more dangerous on Sunnis 19:41  |  Sunni 01/04/09
      139.   No one ever answers the next question 19:53  |  Mark Lincoln 01/04/09
      140.   6 Arab Jerusalem not palestinan 19:55  |  Pamela 01/04/09
      141.   No. 4 is true 19:59  |  Mike the American 01/04/09
      142.   The problem of a long war 20:03  |  John 01/04/09
      143.   The problem with Iran is they just don`t care about the outcome 20:04  |  Shepherd 01/04/09
      144.   Sorry, BIG SUR, You Give Yourself Away 20:07  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      145.   30 Arab Israel not Palestine no such country 20:07  |  Pamela 01/04/09
      146.   Flight to Iran 20:08  |  Phillip 01/04/09
      147.   Natalie USA 72 20:17  |  Pamela 01/04/09
      148.   #15 Cipora Julianna Kohn 20:33  |  Jim 01/04/09
      149.   Mark Lincoln on the next question 20:37  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      150.   Jim on CJ Kohn #148 20:48  |  Yaakov Sullivan 01/04/09
      151.   # 143 shepherd 20:56  |  Axel 01/04/09
      152.   axel,,how many kids perished in the iranian mine fields with 21:09  |  try counting again 01/04/09
      153.   #65 Mark Lincoln 21:13  |  JIm 01/04/09
      154.   BIEN ECRIT, DOCTEUR 21:56  |  Ed 01/04/09
      155.   Yaakov Sullivan 22:17  |  Big Sur 01/04/09
      156.   Iran 22:17  |  J. 01/04/09
      157.   Fake Realist 121: it is the mullah`s choice: peace or suicide 00:36  |  Realist 02/04/09
      158.   Netanyahu is running out of time... 00:38  |  Maureen Ann 02/04/09
      159.   Dear War wanting Israelis 01:00  |  Iranian 02/04/09
      160.   Which gives Iran the right to attack Israel`s 01:05  |  Giora Me`ir 02/04/09
      161.   Might be the one thing that will get Obama to act 01:06  |  Giora Me`ir 02/04/09
      162.   Only 42 ballistic missiles are required! 01:13  |  John Mark 02/04/09
      163.   Phillipe&US "taxpayer",not afraid of powerful N.Korea but trembli 01:31  |  Absolute Sweden 02/04/09
      164.   MAKE LOVE NOT WAR 01:40  |  J. D. Spam 02/04/09
      165.   Elephant in room 01:44  |  Truth 02/04/09
      166.   Consequence of Attacking Iran 01:46  |  Mike 02/04/09
      167.   Johnboy*** i like your comment*** 01:58  |  Lebo 02/04/09
      168.   GO FOR IT BIBI !! BUT ITMIGHT BE PYRRHIC 02:27  |  Arik Silverman 02/04/09
      169.   exchange bombs for bombs 02:35  |  Edmond 02/04/09
      170.   Neta Nya Huu Idiot in Thai 02:38  |  Wiseman 02/04/09
      171.   Very funny! 02:44  |  Bob 02/04/09
      172.   # 147 Pamela 02:45  |  joan 02/04/09
      173.   If Iran has the bomb 03:06  |  Joe 02/04/09
      174.   Problem: Obama ain`t no Forrest Gump 03:20  |  Bitin Dawg 02/04/09
      175.   Morris # 89 my country will not be reduced for yours 03:41  |  American in NY 02/04/09
      176.   Give it a break 04:19  |  Angela 02/04/09
      177.   We have seen this illness before 04:55  |  Mark Lincoln 02/04/09
      178.   annex west bank 05:13  |  michael 02/04/09
      179.   To AiNY (#172) 05:33  |  Morris Valentine 02/04/09
      180.   Daybreak to Mark B#119 neither wiped nor map 12:23  |  Anahita 02/04/09
      181.   Israel 20:09  |  John Proko 02/04/09
      182.   #180 Anahita 01:14  |  Daybreak 03/04/09
      183.   The islamic shiite extremists follow Hadith(men) 20:50  |  ks 03/04/09
      184.   Irans mullahs are a death cult.They WILL use nuclear weapons 21:43  |  ks 03/04/09
      185.   It was just on the US news:bibi told obama,you have only a few 02:13  |  glenna 04/04/09
      186.   contrived argument from Daybreak 02:15  |  Anahita 04/04/09
      187.   Ezekiel 38 02:44  |  Carole 04/04/09
      188.   #185 Anahita 04:39  |  Daybreak 04/04/09
      189.   Will Netanyahu attack Iran? 18:49  |  Jennifer 04/04/09
      190.   Carole see #53 19:31  |  Ezekiel 04/04/09
      191.   Daybreak apologist 12:46  |  Anahita 05/04/09
      192.   #191 Anahita 13:49  |  Daybreak 06/04/09
      193.   Daybreak 16:15  |  Anahita 06/04/09
      194.   #193 Anahita 17:09  |  Daybreak 06/04/09
      195.   Daybreak. what you do 19:29  |  Anahita 06/04/09
      196.   Daybreak. what you do 14:34  |  Anahita 07/04/09
      197.   Anahita #196 18:29  |  Daybreak 07/04/09
      198.   Iran and the bomb 19:12  |  Hilda 08/04/09
      199.   INDIA AS AN ALLY 19:36  |  nyjew 11/04/09
      200.   Iran 03:14  |  Mandy 12/04/09
      201.   attact on iran 15:26  |  dann 23/04/09
      202.   Aluf Benn/ Will Netanyahu attack Iran ? 16:04  |  Nathan 19/05/09
      203.   Weighing the Options 20:44  |  Mike 26/10/09
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