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Last update - 04:02 27/03/2009
ANALYSIS / Sudan strike won't make Iran give up on Hamas
By Amos Harel
Tags: Sudan air strike, Israel news 

A moment before the Olmert government leaves office, coincidently or not, American television network CBS breaks the fascinating story of the Israel Air Force attack on an Iranian weapons convoy in Sudan. If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's detractors say his legacy is in a failed war (Lebanon) and a problematic one (Gaza) and in not bringing kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit home, here is the response: A series of decisions, some of which are known through foreign reports only, show Olmert's willingness to risk approving distant and covert operations, including the attack on the Syrian nuclear facility and the destruction of Hezbollah's Iranian Fajr missiles on the first night of the Second Lebanon War and, according to foreign reports, the attack on Sudan and the assassinations of senior Hezbollah figure Imad Mughniyeh and Syrian general Mohammed Suleiman.

Although Israel did not officially repond to the CBS report, Olmert's remark Thursday that "we act everywhere we can hit terror infrastructure, close and less close," can be seen an unofficial confirmation of the report.

If a decision was made to risk an attack 1,400 kilometers away, apparently it was due to a belief that Iran was about to inject a significant quantity of arms into Gaza, possibly 70-kilometer-range Fajr rockets.
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Iran learned from the Sudan strike that Israel has excellent intelligence, and that it can, and will take the gamble of carrying out long-range strikes when the prize seems high enough. But Iran already knew that. The Sudan strike, if it indeed occurred, conveyed a deterrent message to Tehran, although it still a long way to assuming that Israel can destroy Iran's nuclear program. That would require wave after wave of bombers against a large number of sites, most of which are deep underground.

Former IAF commander Eitan Ben-Eliyahu said Thursday the main difficulty in such an attack is precise intelligence. Getting there requires a flight of about two and a half hours, presumably on a southerly flight path along the Red Sea coast, below Saudi and Egyptian radar and with aerial refueling.

Although the media responded enthusiastically to the strike, security officials said Thursday that it cannot be compared with the one against the Syrian facility.

The presumed strike cost Israel in terms of revealing its intelligence capabilities. It may be assumed that Tehran launched an investigation after the strike to discover how intelligence about the convoy reached Israel. Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine that Tehran will give up on future missions. The Hamas project in Gaza is too important to it.


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      1.   Only cutting the snake`s head. But then what? 05:00  |  Fortuna Benmayor 27/03/09
      2.   With enemies like Iran, who needs friends? 05:45  |  Arik Silverman 27/03/09
      3.   Who can believe anything Amos Harel writes? 05:53  |  Maya 27/03/09
      4.   False confidence 06:20  |  Mad Iranian 27/03/09
      5.   IDF Long Arm 07:27  |  Count Dracula 27/03/09
      6.   What about Egypt ? 08:06  |  Freddy 27/03/09
      7.   analysis 08:29  |  JIm 27/03/09
      8.   further analysis 08:30  |  Jim 27/03/09
      9.   Jim, has it occurred to you... 09:15  |  Tzfonit 27/03/09
      10.   Count Dracula in Big California 09:25  |  Tzfonit 27/03/09
      11.   #5 Freddy 11:26  |  Jim 27/03/09
      12.   Israel`s problem... 11:30  |  Maureen Ann 27/03/09
      13.   #9 Tzfonit 11:50  |  Jim 27/03/09
      14.   Jim. no it is not. 12:13  |  Tzfonit 27/03/09
      15.   Wait until Jews are targeted around the world due to IAF`s action 12:13  |  Dutch 27/03/09
      16.   #10 Tzfonit 12:20  |  Jim 27/03/09
      17.   Maureen Ann issues a shot from the hip 13:22  |  Tzfonit 27/03/09
      18.   Bathursts problem #12 13:34  |  Rafael of Sydney 27/03/09
      19.   Hey Dutch, are you from Holland 13:37  |  Rafael of Sydney 27/03/09
      20.   Abbas talk with Israel but in Hebrow this time please ! 13:37  |  Akram Zekaria 27/03/09
      21.   #12 Maureen Ann. Your post doesn`t merit any response.But.. 13:41  |  H 27/03/09
      22.   #15 Dutch . 13:49  |  H 27/03/09
      23.   #14 Tzfonit 14:03  |  Jim 27/03/09
      24.   Jim reply the questions not comment on Chato`s in Spain 14:52  |  Aby 27/03/09
      25.   #12; one billion muslims against 6 million Jews 15:48  |  r 27/03/09
      26.   Wait A Minute, Mr. Amos Harel 16:15  |  Jeff Northridge 27/03/09
      27.   Yep, Dutch, those who sleep with dogs... 16:15  |  Tzfonit 27/03/09
      28.   Easy target and weapons are not essential 17:07  |  fritz t. 27/03/09
      29.   IAF`s Purported Strike on Convoy in Sudan 17:54  |  Gary 27/03/09
      30.   Amos the Comic Writer 18:51  |  Persian Kitty 27/03/09
      31.   H in London --address the contents of her post 18:53  |  Labhras 27/03/09
      32.   GO HOME AMOS 18:57  |  jewishman 27/03/09
      33.   #4 mad iranian in L.A 19:04  |  Easygoin Israeli 27/03/09
      34.   # 4 mad iranian....since when is the Sudanese 19:08  |  Lynn 27/03/09
      35.   Confused EasygoingIsraeli # 23 19:37  |  Ra`ad 27/03/09
      36.   sudan 19:47  |  Joe Kelsall 27/03/09
      37.   Yes, bombing a couple of truck in the desert... 19:54  |  ManintheMiddle 27/03/09
      38.   Why should it? 20:06  |  Mark Lincoln 27/03/09
      39.   Message to Egypt 20:06  |  MarkS 27/03/09
      40.   21 Labhras 20:16  |  H 27/03/09
      41.   #21 Labhras 21:14  |  H 27/03/09
      42.   The Imperialist Islamic Country of Iran & its War with the World! 22:38  |  Akram Zekaria 27/03/09
      43.   #21 Labhras issuing orders. What did your last slave die of. 00:41  |  H 28/03/09
      44.   Is that a joke, Maureen Ann? 00:45  |  utagawa 28/03/09
      45.   #20 Thank you "H." 02:10  |  Maureen Ann 28/03/09
      46.   #26 Utagawa. And how many US bases? 02:16  |  Maureen Ann 28/03/09
      47.   #39 MarkS,.. Message to Egypt 03:04  |  Benny 28/03/09
      48.   JEff Northridge - REALITY about performance 04:17  |  Mark Lincoln 28/03/09
      49.   Lynn - what are you babbling about? 04:27  |  Mark Lincoln 28/03/09
      50.   Maureen Ann`s Problem .... 04:39  |  Jasper 28/03/09
      51.   Sending Messages and Teaching Lessons 08:39  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/03/09
      52.   Mark of Lewiston #51 on talking and complying 11:01  |  Tzfonit 28/03/09
      53.   Jim, read my posts here. 11:04  |  Tzfonit 28/03/09
      54.   #45 Maureen Ann 14:10  |  H 28/03/09
      55.   Tzfonit - The Problem is Politicians 15:58  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/03/09
      56.   Mark Lincoln # 48 Conformal Fuel Tanks (CFTs) 17:20  |  Jeff Northridge 28/03/09
      57.   Maureen Ann & Labhras re: H & courage of his convictions 18:33  |  American in NY 28/03/09
      58.   persian pity# 30 it that a threat or just more of your 18:48  |  you know,lol 28/03/09
      59.   Mark Lincoln,speaking of babbling,your posts are becoming more 19:18  |  blah blah blah 28/03/09
      60.   Jeff Northridge # 54 re: Mark Lincoln 19:46  |  anon 28/03/09
      61.   Mr American in NY, what about freedom fighters`s south of USA? 20:19  |  Israeli citizen 28/03/09
      62.   So what if H is living in London?Is that a crime? 21:00  |  Izzy 28/03/09
      63.   #55 American in NY 23:25  |  H 28/03/09
      64.   #55 American in New York 01:16  |  H 29/03/09
      65.   #58 Izzy. About the crimes of some convicts to Australia. 01:19  |  Maureen Ann 29/03/09
      66.   To Tzfonit versus Jim @53 Haven`t you realized as yet what Jim 03:45  |  Concerned Observer 29/03/09
      67.   Mark Lincoln Your Reponse to Lynn 04:14  |  Angela 29/03/09
      68.   Dutch, thats exactly what Isrel is doing 06:21  |  Winston 29/03/09
      69.   Jim, Calm down a bit 06:39  |  US Patriot 29/03/09
      70.   rafael bankrupt in ideas 07:19  |  Truth 29/03/09
      71.   Iran will Force us to Obliterate Them 14:51  |  UsedToPostHere 29/03/09
      72.   H # 64 Misquotes seem to be the norm with you 20:37  |  American in NY 29/03/09
      73.   American in NY - single-celled arguments 10:57  |  ZISD 30/03/09
      74.   US Patriot Jim is being very patriotic to HIS country 03:28  |  American in NY 31/03/09
      75.   re:American in NY 15:14  |  UsedToPostHere 14/09/09
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