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Can Egypt-Israel peace survive after Mubarak leaves office?
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Egypt, Israel News, Peace

Thirty years after it was signed, the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty remains the cornerstone of regional stability and order in the Middle East, an important element in Israel's national security, and the basis for Israel's acceptance as a legitimate player in the eyes of its Arab neighbors. However, thus far the accord has failed to bring about a real rapprochement between the two peoples.

Even in his 28th year in office, Hosni Mubarak remains adamant in his refusal to visit Israel. As Egypt's president, he has only visited Jerusalem once, for Yitzhak Rabin's funeral, but then, too, he insisted that this was not a state visit, but rather an act of respect for a slain friend.

Nevertheless, this one-sidedness has not prevented visits to Egypt by Israel's leaders - from prime ministers Menachem Begin to Ehud Olmert (with the exception of Yitzhak Shamir, who was not invited) - or contacts with its president, whose negative opinions about his fellow Arab leaders, such as Syria's Bashar Assad and Palestinian Authority chief Yasser Arafat, they share. Israeli defense ministers, foreign ministers and prime ministers have returned enthusiastically from meetings with Mubarak in Cairo, Alexandria and Sharm el-Sheikh. From their perspective, these encounters carry more weight than the diplomatic battles Egypt has waged against Israel in the United Nations and elsewhere - or, for that matter, the shocking stories regularly published about Israel in the Egyptian media.
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Egypt is the largest country in the Arab world, and its cultural - albeit not economic - hub. Its influence is crucial in granting regional players legitimacy. Although its army is strong, it is no nuclear power. By comparison, Israel is the region's strongest military power and America's closest regional ally, and its tendency to use force against its neighbors provides a challenge to regional stability every couple of years.

Meanwhile, Egypt is trying to challenge Israel's strategic superiority while at the same time moderating the damaging effects of Israel Defense Forces activity in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. This approach constitutes the background to Cairo's diplomatic struggles to shut down the Dimona reactor, and to its involvement in managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which could spill over into Egyptian territory.

Israel wants to maintain its military superiority over Egypt, by means of America's control over military assistance to both countries. In addition, Israel also uses Egypt's influence over the different Palestinian factions as leverage.

Each of the two sides has its own ways of delicately hurting the other: Israel through its friends in the U.S. Congress, which each year approves American aid to Egypt; and Egypt by means of its control over the border between Sinai and the Gaza Strip, through which various goods reach Hamas, and via its influence on the voting patterns of the Arab bloc and the developing countries within the UN and in other international bodies.

However, the disagreements and conflicts of interests between Egypt and Israel do not exceed the boundaries of what are considered acceptable power games in global terms. Relations between the United States and China, between Japan and South Korea, or among the Arab countries are conducted in the same manner. This is the profound meaning of "normalization": It rests on the shared interest of both Egypt and Israel to live within a moderate, stable and pro-Western regional system and to restrain fanatical Islam. Indeed, this interest supersedes all other conflicts of interest and antagonisms.

From the perspective of its 30-year history, the peace accord with Egypt has brought Israel huge advantages: It has removed the danger of an all-out war against a pan-Arab coalition and has transformed Sinai into a demilitarized buffer zone. It allowed the IDF to downsize in the mid-1980s and Israel to divert funds to economic growth. It broke down the wall of isolation and siege that engulfed Israel during its first 30 years of existence and opened the way to regional integration, albeit at a far slower pace than was expected when the treaty was signed. Peace with Egypt has been and continues to be the basis for the generous U.S. aid to Israel. Furthermore, it has allowed Israel to continue to control the Golan Heights and the West Bank and to settle them, just as Begin planned when negotiating with Egyptian president Anwar Sadat.

Yet, the peaceful relations that characterize the conduct between the somewhat closed clique which upholds them have not trickled down to the two respective populations. Israeli tourism to Egypt has petered out because of terror attacks, and the tourism flow has never been particularly significant from the opposite direction.

The Egyptian elite boycotts Israel while the Israeli elite is firmly planted in the West and not interested in its Arabic-speaking neighbors. While Egypt's media cover Israel obsessively, its Israeli counterpart remember Egypt only at times of crisis, such as during the negotiations to free kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit.

Recent years have seen the rise of new skeptics about the peace with Egypt, most notably two politicians with key positions in the next government: MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) and MK Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu). Their opinions enjoy the enthusiastic support of the extreme right, which views the return of Sinai to Egypt as a huge mistake.

Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu and his new partner, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, highly value the strategic cooperation with Mubarak and will not jeopardize it.

The biggest question is what will happen the day after the Egyptian president leaves office. Mubarak, who will be celebrating his 81st birthday in a few weeks, will not remain in power forever.

There is no greater Israeli fear than the rise of an Islamic regime, like that in Iran, which would transform Egypt from a tranquil neighbor into a threatening monster.

The challenge facing Israel's leaders in the coming years will be to ensure that the existing peaceful relations will be transferred to Mubarak's successor, in the hope that he will resemble the incumbent president.
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  1.   Tic-Toc-Tic-Toc 08:24  |  MaoSayTongue 27/03/09
  2.   Even today Egypt cannot be trusted. 08:44  |  Jean Van Daem 27/03/09
  3.   Run away! 08:58  |  K9 27/03/09
  4.   If peace fails, return of the Sinai was a huge mistake 09:33  |  Peter Williams 27/03/09
  5.   Egypt is not a friend of Israel and never has been 10:13  |  Natallie Durson 27/03/09
  6.   Balderdash! 10:18  |  Robert Haymond 27/03/09
  7.   Things won`t be going well 10:21  |  Egyptian 27/03/09
  8.   Will peace survive? 10:24  |  Mark Lincoln 27/03/09
  9.   when Israel gone peace in ME 10:34  |  Pjotr Wolodarsky 27/03/09
  10.   THE FAITH IN PIECES OF PAPER IS ALWAYS MISPLACED 10:54  |  vhardman 27/03/09
  11.   Egypt-Israel 11:11  |  roger 27/03/09
  12.   Will Egypt-Israel peace survive after Mubarak leaves office? 11:58  |  JS 27/03/09
  13.   Another Haaretz outrage 12:00  |  my2sense 27/03/09
  14.   # 9 roger 12:00  |  Axel 27/03/09
  15.   Israeli short-sightedness could produce war with Egypt 12:07  |  Michael 27/03/09
  16.   The Mubarak Dynasty will continue. 12:16  |  Stephen. 27/03/09
  17.   As long as the get billions from the U.S. 12:24  |  Observer 27/03/09
  18.   peace? 12:27  |  The Arab 27/03/09
  19.   Michael draws a long bow 12:32  |  Peter Williams 27/03/09
  20.   To MaoSayTongue, be happy...we are in analogic time 12:37  |  The dumbite kid 27/03/09
  21.   An Example of Egypt/Israel releations 12:53  |  Natallie Durson 27/03/09
  22.   An example of Egypt/Israel relations 13:42  |  Natallie Durson 27/03/09
  23.   Umadunya 14:13  |  Uetlibeg 27/03/09
  24.   It is the begining of beautiful friendship ... 15:11  |  17 27/03/09
  25.   Michael UK - "let the Palestinins go free" 15:21  |  17 27/03/09
  26.   # 9 Pjotr ..when Israel is gone 15:25  |  Levantine 27/03/09
  27.   Re: Peace? 16:31  |  zvi 27/03/09
  28.   The major flaw 16:49  |  Truth 27/03/09
  29.   axel 16:52  |  roger 27/03/09
  30.   Mideast was peacefully b4 isreal 18:06  |  yes 27/03/09
  31.   egypt is just a woman 18:09  |  hans 27/03/09
  32.   Peace after Mubarak? 18:10  |  David Nigel Braham 27/03/09
  33.   Gamal Mubarak is the man you are looking for 19:45  |  Ahmose The Egyptian 27/03/09
  34.   An Egyptian perspective 19:56  |  Egyptian 27/03/09
  35.   IT IS ONLY NATURAL 20:01  |  indrajaya 27/03/09
  36.   Uetlibeg of Zurich 20:45  |  yonatan 27/03/09
  37.   Funny thing 21:04  |  Mad Iranian 27/03/09
  38.   Michael in the UK 21:06  |  rich 27/03/09
  39.   Response to #15 Michael 21:10  |  Mike 27/03/09
  40.   Egypt must be interested in peace same as 23:43  |  Abuya 27/03/09
  41.   Good question and simple answer 00:18  |  Bu Samra 28/03/09
  42.   finally an arab/muslim #34 egyptian tells the truth 03:07  |  blah blah blah 28/03/09
  43.   Natalie Durson-#22- An example of double standards 08:30  |  Daniel Leopold 28/03/09
  44.   Mark Lincoln-# 8-Peace will survive 08:38  |  Daniel Leopold 28/03/09
  45.   Michael - exactly right. 09:36  |  Palestinian Brit 28/03/09
  46.   Peter Williams - "Pals go free?" 09:39  |  Palestinian Brit 28/03/09
  47.   Mike in Israel 09:42  |  Palestine 28/03/09
  48.   Mubarak has steered the Egyptian boat well RIGHT ??? 19:01  |  M. S. 28/03/09
  49.   Palestinian Brit 05:17  |  Peter Williams 30/03/09
  50.   Egyptian-Israeli peace not supported 01:35  |  Secular 07/04/09
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