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Last update - 20:02 17/03/2009
Study: Israel may attack Iran nuclear sites with ballistic missiles
By Reuters
Tags: Israel News, Iran

Ballistic missiles could be Israel's weapon of choice against Iranian nuclear facilities if it decides on a pre-emptive attack and deems air strikes too risky, according to a report by a Washington think-tank.

Israel is widely assumed to have Jericho missiles capable of hitting Iran with an accuracy of a few dozen meters (yards) from target. Such a capability would be free of warplanes' main drawbacks - limits on fuel and ordnance, and perils to pilots.

Extrapolating from analyst assessments that the most advanced Jerichos carry 750 kg (1,650 lb) conventional warheads, Abdullah Toukan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said 42 missiles would be enough to "severely damage or demolish" Iran's core nuclear sites at Natanz, Esfahan and Arak.
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"If the Jericho III is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft," he said in the March 14 report, titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities".

Israel, whose jets bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981 and mounted a similar sortie over Syria in 2007, has hinted that it could forcibly deny Iran the means to make an atomic bomb.

But many experts believe the Iranian sites are too distant, dispersed and fortified for Israel's warplanes to take on alone.

Israel neither confirms nor denies having Jerichos, as part of an "ambiguity" policy veiling its own assumed atomic arsenal.

A veteran Israeli defence consultant played down the idea of ballistic missiles being used for conventional attacks.

"You look at any major Western military, and you'll see that such strikes are the purview of manned warplanes, while ballistic missiles are reserved for nuclear-strike scenarios," the consultant told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Toukan, whose 114-page report frowns on the prospect of unilateral Israeli action, said a Jericho salvo could draw an Iranian counter-attack with Shehab missiles. Other reprisal scenarios include Iran choking off oil exports, hitting U.S. Gulf assets, or ordering proxy attacks on Jewish targets abroad.

Some Israeli experts have been dismissive of the Shehab threat, citing intelligence assessments that Iran has deployed fewer than 100 of the missiles and that, if launched, most would be destroyed in mid-flight by Israel's Arrow II interceptor.

"Under such circumstances, we would expect little more than a repeat of the Gulf war," said one ex-general, referring to Iraq's firing of 40 Scud missiles at Israel during the 1991 conflict. Those attacks inflicted damage but few casualties.

The Arrow II also provides some protection for Jordan, a friendly Arab neighbour of Israel and which Toukan saw becoming "Ground Zero if a ballistic missile exchange takes place".

He noted that any Jericho strikes on Iran - which has denied seeking nuclear weapons but vowed to retaliate if attacked - would be complicated should Tehran obtain the most sophisticated version of Russia's S-300 air-defence system, which can tackle both invading planes and ballistic missiles.

Israel could face a further difficulty in mounting a sneak Jericho attack because its strategic air bases are located near population centers. The unannounced test launch of what was believed to be a Jericho III outside Tel Aviv last year became public knowledge within minutes.

But that may be the extent of Iran's forewarning. According to the Israeli consultant, only the United States and Russia are known to have satellites capable of spotting ballistic missile launches in real time, "and it's highly unlikely that the Iranians would get access to that information."

Related articles:
  • Ashkenazi in U.S.: IDF must prepare to strike Iran
  • U.K. to Iran: Take up Obama dialogue offer or face more sanctions
  • Pentagon chief: Israeli attack on Iran would endanger Mideast
  • Amir Oren / Ready to take the risk
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      1.   would take a combines effort from jets & missiles 17:47  |  zionist forever 17/03/09
      2.   "Those who don`t know, talk, those who know, don`t talk." 17:48  |  common sense 17/03/09
      3.   Hell will open 17:49  |  Paul 17/03/09
      4.   HERE`S A BETTER IDEA 18:53  |  Ian 17/03/09
      5.   Time to threaten Iran with distruction of its oil fields! 19:46  |  martin knopfman 17/03/09
      6.   To Paul 19:52  |  msh 17/03/09
      7.   A little too revealing if you ask me 20:00  |  An American 17/03/09
      8.   Israel can handle the "blowback"... 20:01  |  Paul Freedman 17/03/09
      9.   Missiles, Navy, Air strikes, Commandos 20:06  |  Baruch Gold 17/03/09
      10.   And what warhead would be used? 20:08  |  Mark Lincoln 17/03/09
      11.   Sure, 20:18  |  Elina 17/03/09
      12.   Arrow Missile Defense System 20:21  |  P. J. Casey 17/03/09
      13.   Twaddle 20:24  |  Mark Lincoln 17/03/09
      14.   Israel is headed towards another self-inflicted disaster 20:29  |  Mark Lincoln 17/03/09
      15.   Yeah right... dozens of ballistic missles overflying 20:31  |  Erastus CoupeDeVille 17/03/09
      16.   could you please print the time and date? 20:40  |  info 17/03/09
      17.   Another big strategic mistake 20:42  |  UK 17/03/09
      18.   EMP attack better 20:45  |  rob 17/03/09
      19.   Shortening the trip 20:46  |  Morris Valentine 17/03/09
      20.   Basically an admission 21:01  |  Axel 17/03/09
      21.   In the meantime would you mind returning my gas mask Mr. Olmert 21:13  |  Shem 17/03/09
      22.   Another "Washington Think Tank"...? 21:14  |  Stephen. 17/03/09
      23.   thiswould have to be overwhelming quick and followed up with 21:26  |  r 17/03/09
      24.   Israel is not a credible threat to Iran 21:30  |  American in NY 17/03/09
      25.   For Paul Freedman#7 - Zionist blowderdash 21:32  |  Clickfool 17/03/09
      26.   Paul #3 Hell will open 21:38  |  Eaglebeak 17/03/09
      27.   Now we are finally using our heads. 21:38  |  ottomatik 17/03/09
      28.   Right back atcha... 21:44  |  Mike 17/03/09
      29.   Jericho missiles will be useless 21:45  |  Clickfool 17/03/09
      30.   Paul of Ohio 21:47  |  ottomatik 17/03/09
      31.   If this article is true is was stupid to announce it to the world 21:49  |  glenna 17/03/09
      32.   LOVE & HATE 22:02  |  MARK 17/03/09
      33.   Bye Bye Israel 22:26  |  Mad Iranian 17/03/09
      34.   Action and Reaction 22:31  |  alia 17/03/09
      35.   Paul Freeman, are you prepared to prove your points by... 22:46  |  ManintheMiddle 17/03/09
      36.   response to zionist forever 22:58  |  pm 17/03/09
      37.   Iran: all Palestinians and Israeli Arabs must get out 23:15  |  Maria 17/03/09
      38.   The problem with these analyses 23:18  |  Peter Williams 17/03/09
      39.   If we go, we`ll take the entire Middle East along with us 23:44  |  Simha 17/03/09
      40.   How to win friends and influence people. 23:50  |  Palestinian Brit 17/03/09
      41.   "nuclear-strike scenarios" 23:57  |  flimflam 17/03/09
      42.   Great idea 00:39  |  Mark 18/03/09
      43.   No name on the artical-- just more hasbra 01:25  |  American in NY 18/03/09
      44.   Don`t understand why Israel is intent on suicide 02:21  |  Eric 18/03/09
      45.   Keep playing with fire! 03:12  |  Sal-Chicago 18/03/09
      46.   Yeah, right. 03:48  |  Johnboy 18/03/09
      47.   #1-7, YOU ALL MAKE ME LAUGH 04:22  |  VIPER 18/03/09
      48.   IRAN could use moderation and stop confronting Israel 04:59  |  PETER SM 18/03/09
      49.   Bad move 05:38  |  Colin Wright 18/03/09
      50.   Zionism is about outlive its usefulness 06:31  |  Janet 18/03/09
      51.   Just like.... 07:58  |  Joe 18/03/09
      52.   Janet - HAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH 08:32  |  Ben 18/03/09
      53.   #9, VIPER 09:34  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 18/03/09
      54.   Israel is a MAD DOG 11:50  |  Aardvark 18/03/09
      55.   18 14:05  |  zionist forever 18/03/09
      56.   Israel and Iran 18:48  |  Ben 25/03/09
      57.   Israel is intent on suicide 09:32  |  argus 26/03/09
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