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Last update - 13:22 03/03/2009
Hillary Clinton, Gaza, and the six-state solution
By Bradley Burston
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Gaza 

Click here for more from Bradley Burston

Welcome, Madame Secretary.

Welcome to Israel, a country whose byzantine electoral system has managed only to elect an outgoing premier-for-life.
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Welcome to a nation in which, with apologies to a former Louisiana legislator, half the country is under fire, and the other half is under indictment.

Welcome to a peace process which, in the manner of lies, damn lies, and statistics, seems determined to prove that there are impossibilities, absolute impossibilities, and Two States for Two Peoples.

Welcome, that is, to the political campaign of your life.

At this, the outset of your tenure at State, the campaign for peace in the Holy Land gives every appearance of a diplomatic offensive. Don't be fooled. You and your president must approach this challenge for what it is: a campaign for swing states.

At stake is nothing less than the conflict the world wants most to solve.

To prevail, you will need to successfully contend with six swing states. There are, first of all, the Four States for Four Peoples located within the cramped confines of the Holy Land itself - two of them Palestinian -one in Hamas-ruled Gaza, one in the Fatah-led West Bank - and two of them Israeli - one for settlers, one for the rest of us.

Then, for good measure, there are the swing states of Syria and Iran.

These six are the keys to Middle East peace, and the reason for its absence.

The conflict is so hidebound, the sides so exhaustively jaded, that you will need every ounce of creativity, energy, sensitivity, wiles, wisdom, charm and against-the-squall optimism to make a half an ounce of headway.

Your opening moves have been useful. The hundreds of millions of dollars in aid earmarked for reconstruction in Gaza recasts the U.S. policy message in a way that will be difficult for Israel and the Palestinians to ignore. It will lend fresh impetus and urgency to solving the logjam over border crossings and the critical need to speed reconstruction aid into the Strip.

One left-field reason that U.S. the aid may actually foster movement: Americans, who have been notably understanding of wide-scale Israeli attacks on heavily populated areas, may take heightened interest in the rebuilt structures, and having them remain intact. This is, in turn, a potentially powerful incentive for Israel to seek alternatives to the devastation of the recent war, whose effectiveness inn the service of Israel's interest has yet to be demonstrated.

Herewith an overview of the swing states.

1. EXODUS ISRAEL In essence, the nation within the pre-1967 borders of the state of Israel.

THE UPSIDE: Opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of Israelis, Jews and Arabs alike, favor a viable independent Palestinian state in the West Bank.

In fact, given Avigdor Lierberman's explicit endorsement last week of such a state, a clear majority of 70 Knesset members in the 120-seat house may be said to favor such an eventual solution [Kadima (28 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (15), Labor (13), Hadash (4), Ra'am-Ta'al (4), Meretz (3), and Balad (3)

THE RUB: Qassam and Grad/Katyusha rocket attacks in the wake of the 2005 disengagement from the Gaza Strip have gutted all Israeli popular support for a withdrawal in the West Bank in the foreseeable future.

THE WAY FORWARD: High energy, under-the-radar diplomacy with presumptive prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Allow him to pay domestic lip service where needed, but encouraging him to quietly but powerfully explore a peace deal with Syria and take back-channel local steps like gumming up new settlement construction in bureaucratic mire [see next].

2. THE ORANGE FREE STATE The settlement empire in Judea, Samaria [the West Bank] and East Jerusalem.

THE UPSIDE: The financial crisis along with fringe anti-government extremism on the part of a small but vocal segment of the settler population has cooled general Israeli sympathy and support for fostering settlements.

THE RUB: Despite the obvious differences in form and function, settlement construction inflames Palestinians in much the same way that Qassam rockets infuriate Israelis, placing peace that much farther from reach. Meanwhile, the rise of radical Islam among Palestinians props up the settlement enterprise, adding weight to the basic settler argument that Arabs covet Tel Aviv as part of a Palestinian state every bit as much as they claim Jenin and Nablus.

THE WAY FORWARD: Continued U.S. support for and coordination of successful Palestinian Authority police security responsibility in Arab population centers of the West Bank, fostering greater autonomy, less friction, and tangible movement toward future Palestinian sovereignty.

Also, savvy U.S. encouragement of concessions to boost employment and economic growth for Palestinians in the West Bank, at the same time ensuring that this does not come at the expense of the security of settlers. Also, the U.S. should lend planning assistance toward a future two-state solution, with settlement concentrated in enclaves along the 1948-67 Green Line borders, the geographic option left open for a Palestinian state including part of Jerusalem as a capital, and free movement for Palestinians north and south in the West Bank.

3. QASSAMISTAN The Gaza Strip, more rigorously Islamic and poorer by far than the West Bank. Herein dubbed Qassamistan, and not Hamastan, in commemoration of the lethal role that the rockets have played in the death of the peace process.

THE RUB, WHICH MAY ALSO BE THE UPSIDE: Hamas, sole ruler of Gaza since bitter civil warfare with Fatah in mid-2007, is itself divided at least three ways. Once a movement with iron discipline and one voice, Hamas' leadership is shared with varying levels of ease between the Damascus-based Political Bureau of Khaled Meshal and his deputy Musa Abu Marzuk, the founding Gaza branch of Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Zahar, and Izz el-Din al-Qassam, the group's shadowy but influential military wing.

Despite an unwillingness to amend the group's frankly and even murderously anti-Semitic charter, there have been voices within the group suggesting that Hamas would be willing to reach an accommodation with Fatah and even, on a level which allows it its own lip service, an eventual co-existence with Israel.

THE WAY FORWARD: Intelligent and largely unseen U.S. diplomacy to help forge a Palestinian unity government which Israel can suck up and live with, so that negotiations on a wide range of sub-peace-deal issues (e.g., aid distribution, prisoner exchange including Gilad Shalit, border crossing policy) can take place without one Palestinian side, or Israel, intentionally scuttling any talks between any two of the others. Key: An effective Egyptian role in mediation and in cooling cross-border attacks.

THE DUCHY OF UPPER PALESTINE East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Culturally and to an extent linguistically different from Gaza, and with a legacy of some condescension toward the Strip and its residents.

THE RUB: Fatah's long history of corruption and double dealing has harmed its standing with Palestinians. Many younger residents of the West Bank have opted for radical Islam and the eventual erasure of the Jewish state.

THE UPSIDE: Successive Palestinian disappointments this decade have effectively eroded support for every Palestinian faction in existence, leading to signs of a new openness for solutions to the conflict, along with hope for economic stability.

THE WAY FORWARD: Fostering the Fatah-ruled West Bank as a new model for an eventual independent state. Convincing Israel to let Fatah-PA control security (and suppress the Islamic Jihad and armed Hamas units) in the West Bank, rather than having Israeli soldiers undermine PA authority in high-profile IDF raids.

5. SYRIA Arguably the most important swing state of them all.

THE RUB: Damascus still plays host to a range of ultra-militant Palestinian organizations. It remains allied to Iran and, as such, is crucial to the power Hezbollah holds in Lebanon.

THE UPSIDE: Syria, increasingly cash-starved as falling oil prices sap Iran's treasury, is desperate to end its international isolation, and fervently desires Washington's help to that end. Netanyahu has flirted with the prospect of peace with Syria in the past, knowing that only a Likud-led government could command the clout needed to give up the Golan. Were such a peace concluded, Hezbollah would lose much of its strength in Lebanon, and there would be strong Palestinian public pressure for a final peace as well.

THE WAY FORWARD: Encourage Netanyahu to pick up where he left off in the 1990s.

6. IRAN

THE RUB: Nuclear weapons research, ballistic missile research, lobbying and backing Hezbollah, Hamas, for proxy wars.

THE UPSIDE: Plummeting oil revenues, economic crisis, long-term effects of inflation and imbalance of wealth, an internet-aware younger generation. An election later this year, which could topple Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

THE WAY FORWARD: Keep back channels open to Tehran, while supporting Netanyahu, should he pick up with Syria.


____________________


Previous blogs:
Winslet, 'Waltz,' and how Hollywood likes its Jews
Sure the Israeli right won? Peace lost? Look closer
Will Livni, Netanyahu settle for rotation, sharing premiership?
Israel Election Guide: Can Netanyahu be stopped? Can Lieberman?
'Waltz with Bashir,' Gaza, and the post-moral world
The Gaza War as reality television
Mr. Obama, grant Hamas the freedom to fail
In Gaza's shadow: Obama's inaugural message
A Jew's prayer for the children of Gaza
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
First night in Cairo
Gideon Levy recalls his trip to cover the first talks between Israel and Egypt.
Collective suicide
New book analyzing suicide notes of Israeli Jews offers 'self-portrait' of Israeli society.
  1.   Mr. Burston has parsed the problem well 16:11  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/09
  2.   Mr. Burston...one other recommendation 16:14  |  Lynn 02/03/09
  3.   Bradley, have we become Israels latest "spin-doctor"...???? 16:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 02/03/09
  4.   # Little correction to my # 4........ 17:09  |  Swiss (Dino) 02/03/09
  5.   Mr Burston, you are forgetting one 17:12  |  Shimon Cleopas 02/03/09
  6.   WHAT A COMPLEX STATE OF MIND YOU GOT THERE BRADLEY 17:45  |  indrajaya 02/03/09
  7.   Bradley 18:33  |  Yosemite 02/03/09
  8.   #1Joe the Potz calling the kettle Black 18:51  |  Ari ben Yisrael 02/03/09
  9.   Stop living in Imaginistan - switch to new paradigm 18:54  |  Boris 02/03/09
  10.   67 borders period! no if no buts or iran will... 19:06  |  moi 02/03/09
  11.   The 4 State Solution 19:17  |  MB 02/03/09
  12.   Rebuild Gaza 19:40  |  t 02/03/09
  13.   Mr. Lincoln should expand his train of thought 19:47  |  Ojo Rojo 02/03/09
  14.   Burston is wrong, here are the reasons: 20:14  |  Khalid 02/03/09
  15.   INDY....Hamas is the insult to the Pals 20:26  |  Lynn 02/03/09
  16.   Being nice with Yosemite #8 21:34  |  christoph 02/03/09
  17.   Funny, but it`s still nonsense 21:54  |  Susan 02/03/09
  18.   Burston, give logic a chance! 21:58  |  Bandar Michaels 02/03/09
  19.   Israelis not willing... and the Palestinians know it 22:09  |  AT 02/03/09
  20.   Hard to ignore! Think again... 22:28  |  Giora 02/03/09
  21.   Bradley, read 11 & 15. Only the Saudi Plan offers escape 23:12  |  Ivar 02/03/09
  22.   Ojo Roho # 14 It is your horizons that neeed expanding 23:14  |  American in NY 02/03/09
  23.   Lynn # 3 Israel is not in europe, it is in the ME 23:18  |  American in NY 02/03/09
  24.   sorry, I think it`s "to myself" in English 23:30  |  christoph 02/03/09
  25.   23 state solution 23:39  |  Shimon 02/03/09
  26.   Been there, done that 23:53  |  moshe ibn harb 02/03/09
  27.   #15 Khalid & jaundice - how wrong you are(again) 01:45  |  Magpie 03/03/09
  28.   Illusory majority 02:31  |  Don 03/03/09
  29.   There will never be a viable Pal state without... 04:17  |  Jasper 03/03/09
  30.   Maybe not so complicated?! 07:11  |  Otto Rand 03/03/09
  31.   Diplomatic endeavor of a high-wire walker 10:33  |  allang 03/03/09
  32.   #1, Joe, no we don`t get it 11:18  |  newageblues 03/03/09
  33.   The seventh state 11:54  |  Stonebird 03/03/09
  34.   No matter if the crossings are open or closed, 11:57  |  Sceptic 03/03/09
  35.   Mass Slaughter of Cast Lead, 2nd try 11:58  |  Sceptic 03/03/09
  36.   This wont persuade anybody, but might stop hysteria 11:58  |  Sceptic 03/03/09
  37.   Mass Slaughter of Cast Lead, 2nd try 12:14  |  Sceptic 03/03/09
  38.   How many states? 13:18  |  Hilda 03/03/09
  39.   To all the disbelievers. 15:55  |  Sceptic 03/03/09
  40.   Kingdom of Israel and Kingdom of Judea? 16:02  |  shlomo 03/03/09
  41.   "QASSAMISTAN " nice name maybe israel must 16:08  |  fa 03/03/09
  42.   Add Egypt to that list! 16:41  |  Zvi 03/03/09
  43.   21 17:13  |  zionist forever 03/03/09
  44.   The Way Forward 17:42  |  Jeff Northridge 03/03/09
  45.   The One State solution 17:48  |  Mandelarab 03/03/09
  46.   18 18:01  |  zionist forever 03/03/09
  47.   Polar opposite part 2 20:28  |  r cunningham 03/03/09
  48.   Burston is correct - peace is not possible..... 23:05  |  tad chase 27/03/09
  49.   Sceptic aka gullible 23:30  |  Roo 03/03/09
  50.   to mandelarab 05:45  |  m. 04/03/09
  51.   THERE IS ONLY ONE ANSWER FOR PEACE: 06:38  |  Fred 04/03/09
  52.   hi brad. israel just gave $45m to terrorists for peace 06:33  |  Trudy 04/03/09
  53.   American in NY #22 No! It is your horizons that neeed expanding 09:02  |  Tim R 04/03/09
  54.   Doubletalk, political correctness, deception: not a way to peace! 06:00  |  Tim 05/03/09
  55.   Meddling in another`s affairs has never been easy 19:20  |  Michael A. Shoemaker 06/03/09
  56.   Common denominator:Failed 100 years leadership 01:42  |  ReasonMustGuide 07/03/09
  57.   hillary clinton, gaza, and the six-state solution 13:48  |  daniel choueka 07/03/09
  58.   Hillary 17:08  |  Bergson 07/03/09
  59.   The Lord gave the Holyland to israel=From Sidon to Grar 22:41  |  sam 09/03/09
  60.   #45 Mandelarab: Would you say the same to 58 Islamic states? 08:31  |  Bennie 12/03/09
  61.   to sam #59 - 3rd try 16:52  |  zeev 12/03/09
  62.   on daniel choueka #57 - 6th try 20:39  |  zeev 13/03/09
  63.   to daniel choueka #57 - (cont.) 21:35  |  zeev 13/03/09
  64.   On Zeev`s Spin #62 05:13  |  Tim R 14/03/09
  65.   to Tim R #64 14:06  |  zeev 14/03/09
  66.   Zeev #65 10:09  |  Tim R 15/03/09
  67.   LET`s make it simple 11:11  |  Levinas 15/03/09
  68.   BS 06:52  |  Rabbi Ashkenazi 18/03/09
  69.   to Tim R #66 - 4th try 10:09  |  zeev 18/03/09
  70.   QASSAMISTAN? 21:18  |  W 18/03/09
  71.   Zeev #69 11th Try 07:29  |  Tim R 28/03/09
  72.   zeev #69 12th Try 10:56  |  Tim R 28/03/09
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