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Last update - 19:17 03/04/2009
U.S. officials' about-face on Iran nukes could sway Obama policy
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent, and News Agencies
Tags: nuclear weapon, barack obama 

Israel is anxiously awaiting the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which is due to be published in another month.

President Barack Obama's administration is currently formulating its policy toward Iran's nuclear program, and the revised NIE will serve as the basis for its conclusions. The administration has already decided that it wants to begin a dialogue with Iran, but it is still wrestling with questions such as how to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program under cover of negotiations and what role sanctions should play in the process.

The last NIE effectively stymied efforts to impose stiffer sanctions on Iran by declaring that Tehran had halted its nuclear weapons program. Since then, however, Iran has been feverishly developing its uranium enrichment capabilities - widely considered the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb - and some experts now believe it has enough fuel for its first bomb.
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On Sunday, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, told CNN's "State of the Union" program that he believes Iran has enough fissile material for a bomb.

"We think they do, quite frankly," Mullen said.

However, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates hastened to deny this.

"They're not close to a stockpile, they're not close to a weapon at this point, and so there is some time," Gates said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

These differing assessments were apparently more a matter of terminology than substance. Mullen said merely that Iran had enough material for a nuclear "device," whereas Gates in the past has always spoken specifically about the amount of material needed to put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.

Both men were responding to a report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency last month that said Iran had built up a stockpile of 1,010 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. Many analysts say that would be enough for a bomb, if converted into highly-enriched uranium.

Israel's assessment has thus far been that Iran will achieve enough fissionable material for a bomb by the end of 2009. The U.S., however, had until recently maintained that this would not happen until 2010.

Adm. Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, told Congress last month, "Iran probably has imported at least some weapons-usable fissile material but [we] still judge it has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon. We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad or will acquire in the future a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon."

Blair also reiterated that Iran was continuing work on two of the three technologies needed for a nuclear arms program - uranium enrichment technology and nuclear-capable ballistic missile systems. U.S. intelligence agencies have said that Iran suspended the third program, namely, developing an actual nuclear warhead.

Several senior U.S. officials have reiterated in recent days that the goal of Obama's planned dialogue is to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting on Iraq last Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice stressed that the U.S. intends to "seek an end to Iran's ambition to acquire an illicit nuclear capacity and its support for terrorism. It will aim to encourage both Iran and Syria to become constructive regional actors."

Mullen, in his remarks to CNN, said, "Iran having nuclear weapons, I've believed for a long time, is a very, very bad outcome - for the region and for the world."

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      1.   Iranian Nukes 02:16  |  Bill 02/03/09
      2.   Iranian nukes inevitable 02:38  |  Mark 02/03/09
      3.   Irans Nukes and Obamas Dialog, 02:40  |  ottomatik 02/03/09
      4.   Sooner or later 03:11  |  honestywithoutmercy 02/03/09
      5.   these dc liars say there is still time;right;next you will hear 04:03  |  glenna 02/03/09
      6.   Iran`s nukes 04:37  |  Ed 02/03/09
      7.   Peace with Palestine cures the Iran issue. 04:51  |  James Hovland 02/03/09
      8.   Israel should launch a first strike 05:00  |  Donna 02/03/09
      9.   Letting Mahmoud Have Nukes Is Like... 05:13  |  Yosemite 02/03/09
      10.   Iran Is Going To Get The Bomb No Matter What 05:29  |  Jeff Northridge 02/03/09
      11.   scary! 05:41  |  Jim 02/03/09
      12.   Strike Iran Hard and Fast 06:25  |  Baruch Gold 02/03/09
      13.   Huffing and puffing on Iran`s nuclear program 06:26  |  Nikos Retsos 02/03/09
      14.   Iran will get nukes 06:29  |  David 02/03/09
      15.   Mark, Ed, Bill; the ruling Mullahs will Prove you`re ALL WRONG 06:56  |  david 02/03/09
      16.   To #9 08:04  |  John 02/03/09
      17.   Day-dreaming in Israel 08:45  |  Iranian-American 02/03/09
      18.   #12 What NATO? 09:06  |  Mike 02/03/09
      19.   Yakety-yakety-boring-yak 09:23  |  Clickfool 02/03/09
      20.   Oh Israel, if there only were those good old days when the...... 09:36  |  Swiss (Dino) 02/03/09
      21.   Warning 09:42  |  Darya 02/03/09
      22.   # 12 baruch 09:42  |  Axel 02/03/09
      23.   To #12: You want NATO`s help? Join NATO! 10:16  |  Anonymous 02/03/09
      24.   The problem is NOT Iran`s bomb. It is to whom they give it... 10:24  |  S 02/03/09
      25.   #7 Peace with Palestine cures the Iran issue. 10:37  |  JonathanInTelAviv 02/03/09
      26.   Bushehir is actually a hamentaschen factory 10:37  |  Michael A. Shoemaker 02/03/09
      27.   Iran has a long way to go to catch Israel 10:47  |  Gregor 02/03/09
      28.   They spin around the problem 11:03  |  PARIS 02/03/09
      29.   Israel needs to adopt a consistent approach 11:08  |  Manny Goldstein 02/03/09
      30.   Well said Clickfoot! 11:31  |  Samy 02/03/09
      31.   Clickfool`s Freudian lapsus calami 11:41  |  Lacanian 02/03/09
      32.   Re: "# 12 baruch" 11:46  |  Miron 02/03/09
      33.   So Where Are All the Nut-Cases Who Praised the NIE Here? 11:56  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 02/03/09
      34.   # 12 one BIG problem with your plan, baruch 11:58  |  eric 02/03/09
      35.   Netanyahu can start a world war 12:15  |  mehmet 02/03/09
      36.   Make sure that CV is up to date! 12:33  |  Natallie Durson 02/03/09
      37.   Ahmadinejad the Fuhrer 13:18  |  baurat 02/03/09
      38.   daily nonsense 13:41  |  Bob 02/03/09
      39.   Obama made it perfectly clear 13:50  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/03/09
      40.   US imperialsim 13:52  |  Nick Ferriman 02/03/09
      41.   more biased reporting 18:24  |  good dorothy 02/03/09
      42.   Mehmet - again your baseless accusations 19:07  |  David Israel 02/03/09
      43.   Mehmet - One more thing 19:33  |  David Israel 02/03/09
      44.   Re# 1 Bill, Remember...The USA have ... 19:56  |  Ines 02/03/09
      45.   Reason Will Prevail 20:11  |  Robert 02/03/09
      46.   #9 Yosemite 20:22  |  Beano 02/03/09
      47.   #12 Baruch Gold 20:32  |  Beano 02/03/09
      48.   #25 Manny Goldstein 20:42  |  Beano 02/03/09
      49.   a replay of the 30s with the new chamberlains et al 20:59  |  by any other 02/03/09
      50.   Ines # 40 Re # 1 21:11  |  Bill H. 02/03/09
      51.   Nick Ferriman # 36 American Imperialism 21:20  |  Jeff Northridge 02/03/09
      52.   #49 by any other 21:46  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/03/09
      53.   #20 Hi Swiss 23:16  |  Edith 02/03/09
      54.   #33 Where are they all, Ovadiah? 23:17  |  Johnboy 02/03/09
      55.   "good dorothy" 23:24  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/03/09
      56.   #24, S 23:30  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/03/09
      57.   # To Bob and His dailly nonsense...And you go on.. 00:14  |  Whiskey 03/03/09
      58.   To CJK, S (#24, #56) 00:23  |  Morris Valentine 03/03/09
      59.   #56 So those are your intentions Cipora 00:37  |  Edith 03/03/09
      60.   #55 Cipora 01:07  |  Johnboy 03/03/09
      61.   Negligent World Leaders 01:11  |  wounded dove 03/03/09
      62.   More fearmongering propaganda 01:13  |  Damian Lataan 03/03/09
      63.   Okay let`s spread the butter on both sides eh Johnboy? 01:18  |  Whiskey 03/03/09
      64.   According to many who post here 01:19  |  An American 03/03/09
      65.   Wounded Dove 01:49  |  Persian Kitty 03/03/09
      66.   Beano 02:09  |  sfg 03/03/09
      67.   #63 I`m curious, Whiskey. 02:25  |  Johnboy 03/03/09
      68.   # 12 one BIG problem with your plan, baruch (3rd try) 07:13  |  eric 03/03/09
      69.   Jews ignorant of Iran 07:16  |  matthew 03/03/09
      70.   #58, Morris Valentine 07:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/03/09
      71.   To Cipora #56 (Morris too) 10:20  |  S 03/03/09
      72.   #64 An American 12:03  |  Beano 03/03/09
      73.   #54 johnboy: "No Iran Program" to "Inevitable Capability" 12:59  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 03/03/09
      74.   #73 The art of "threat assessment", Ovidiah 13:31  |  Johnboy 03/03/09
      75.   Appeasement 10:08  |  Arby 05/03/09
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