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Last update - 12:42 01/03/2009 The people of Israel voted Hamas By Shaul Arieli Tags: israel news, Hamas  In the elections for the 18th Knesset, the people of Israel also determined the future of the Palestinian leadership. The scenario that Mahmoud Abbas and his diplomatic platform will survive and remain viable vis-a-vis Benjamin Netanyahu's government, much like Yasser Arafat in 1996, is highly unlikely. An absence of a diplomatic process, and the expected strengthening of Hamas as a result, will lead to Fatah's abandonment of the diplomatic arena and its linkage with, or replacement by, Hamas. Arafat was forced to watch Netanyahu, who saw "the PLO state" as an existential danger, put together a right-wing government. The Western Wall Tunnel episode, American pressure, the temporary war against terror, and support of the diplomatic process from a majority of the public yielded few diplomatic fruits - the Hebron Agreement and the Wye River Memorandum - yet kept the process going. The PLO did not lose its superiority to Hamas even while Netanyahu canceled negotiations on a final-status agreement, reduced the scope of Israeli withdrawals as stipulated by the interim agreement, and enabled the doubling of the Israeli population in the territories. Abbas survived during the Olmert government's term due to the support of moderate Arab states and most of the international community, American aid, and the Israel Defense Forces' presence in the West Bank. A Netanyahu government is tantamount to compounding Abbas' predicament: an Israeli refusal to discuss the Arab initiative; the absence of a binding document in the wake of the Annapolis process; Hamas control of Gaza, which is gaining more legitimacy following Operation Cast Lead; a strengthening of "the Iranian camp;" a limping economy; and a further increase in the number of settlers. Advertisement If Netanyahu overcomes American pressure and the ostracism of Europe and the Arab states, he will have to carry out the "legacy" of Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak. If Avigdor Lieberman succeeds in limiting the High Court of Justice on security matters, Netanyahu could complete the construction of the security fence along a route that will carve up the West Bank. He could fulfill the National Union's demand to "launder" the outposts in the spirit of the agreements Barak negotiated with the settlers. He will issue tenders for the building of settlements west of the fence, and the troika of leaders who sanctified the fence route as the future border will not be able to utter a sound from the opposition. The simmering tensions in the West Bank will serve as a pretext for Netanyahu to maintain the hundreds of checkpoints that have strangled the Palestinian economy, and Barak can only keep mum. The response to the Israeli elections was the acceleration of talks between Hamas and Fatah, with Egypt's support, all toward the goal of creating a Palestinian entity to cope with Israel's expected abandonment of the Annapolis process and Lieberman's demand to topple Hamas. This is tantamount to a violation of the renewed cease-fire, if one is attained. If the Palestinian reconciliation process bears fruit, Hamas will renounce its declared goal of establishing a new PLO and will join the existing one, a process that will encourage calls to reintroduce the principle of "resistance" into the PLO platform and condition its adherence to existing agreements on Israel's abiding by those same agreements. The absence of a substantive diplomatic process will move Fatah, 16 years after the Oslo Accords, to acknowledge that its strategic decision to opt for the diplomatic route and to abandon "the armed struggle" has failed. The distance from this point to a complete takeover of the PLO, which is recognized as the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, by the Hamas agenda is short. Thus, in a stroke of irony, PLO negotiators are awaiting Netanyahu and Lieberman with Hamas-like viewpoints, amid the international pressure that will be put on Israel to advance a solution of two states for two peoples. One may assume that none of them will want to discuss the alternative of one state between the Jordan River and the sea because in such a state, in which a majority of citizens will be Palestinian, Lieberman's citizenship law will come back to hit us like a boomerang. The writer is a member of the board of directors of the Council for Peace and Security and one of the architects of the Geneva Initiative. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Davis Cup protest Tennis player Andy Ram: Sweden protest was first time I felt anti-Israel hate. Iranian shoe-thrower Report: Shoe hurled at Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in city of Urmia.   1.   Hamas and Meretz are Closer in Ideology than Likud Ever Could Be 05:01  |  Baruch Gold 01/03/09   2.   Two State Solution a Done Deal 05:04  |  Baruch Gold 01/03/09   3.   The Israeli voter, the Palestinian extremists "best friend"..... 09:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 01/03/09   4.   Israel cannot survive without America 09:42  |  Clickfool 01/03/09   5.   HAMAS was the Arabs choice long ago over corrupt Arafat cronies 10:00  |  PETER SM 01/03/09   6.   Terror attacks between 1994 and 1996 10:06  |  Sceptic 01/03/09   7.   Livni = leftist defeatist = land for NO peace 16:44  |  Uri 01/03/09   8.   uri 18:37  |  Axel 01/03/09   9.   Vote for Netanyahu 19:23  |  A peaceful Israeli 01/03/09   10.   #7 Alles Klar 19:27  |  Baruch Gold 01/03/09   11.   Netanyahu is the Result, Not the Cause 20:58  |  RickD 01/03/09   12.   The people of Israel voted 18:20  |  Dr. Ari Nir 06/03/09

Read & React U.S. turns up heat on Israel over West Bank settlements Responses: 141 Zvi Bar'el: We learned how to miss every opportunity for peace from the Palestinians Responses: 9 Gideon Levy: Devoid of hope or promise, Israel's leadership offer only fear Responses: 11 U.S. Army document describes Israel as 'a nuclear power' Responses: 16 More Headlines 11:29 Shalit's father: We will protest until Gilad is free 01:23 U.S. turns up heat on Israel over settlements 08:07 U.S. Army document describes Israel as 'a nuclear power' 09:06 Four rockets hit Negev as IAF bombs Gaza targets 10:50 Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu strike deal, Lieberman to get Foreign Ministry 02:00 ANALYSIS / Netanyahu doesn't really want Lieberman as foreign minister 08:42 'The Color Purple' author Alice Walker to visit Gaza 10:48 WATCH: Daily news round-up from Israel 02:25 U.S. warns it won't recognize PA unity gov't sans Fayyad 04:10 Hopes for Shalit deal during Olmert tenure fade as Hamas nixes offer 03:51 Source: Indictment will force Lieberman to quit cabinet within weeks 04:16 Why do married women earn less money than married men? 10:46 Suspected rapist passes polygraph, yet 7-year-old girl insists he's the one Previous Editions Select Day 06 mar 05 mar 04 mar 03 mar 02 mar 01 mar 27 feb 26 feb 25 feb 24 feb 23 feb 22 feb

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