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Unity before calamity By Ari Shavit Tags: tzipi livni, israel news  This is the situation: To become a nuclear power Iran needs three things - missiles, the capability to produce a nuclear warhead, and fissionable material. Iran has Shihab 3 missiles and apparently also the ability to assemble a nuclear warhead. The hurdle still facing Iran is the fissionable material. Iran has been making every effort to build up a critical mass of enriched uranium that would allow it to assemble its first nuclear weapon. There are about 5,000 centrifuges operating in Iran's underground facility in Natanz. As of now they have produced one ton of low-enriched uranium. To produce a nuclear weapon Iran needs a ton and a half. The centrifuges in Natanz are capable of producing the rest in less than a year, and if that happens, Iran will be able to change the rules of the game and switch from low enrichment to high enrichment - and build a bomb. Advertisement If Iran becomes a nuclear power, this will have quite a few ramifications. Iraq, Kuwait and the Emirates are likely to recognize Iranian hegemony and take shelter under its umbrella. Egypt and Saudi Arabia may also go nuclear and turn the Middle East into an unstable, multi-polar nuclear region. Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas may very well take advantage of the Iranian nuclear umbrella to challenge Israel with serious conventional conflicts on several fronts. The radical forces in the Middle East may also use the Iranian power as a lever to help them overthrow moderate Arab regimes. Iranian nuclear capabilities may leak to terrorist organizations, which may use them as threats without the restraints of international deterrence that exist between nations. The significance is clear: Even if Iran does not use its nuclear weapons, the fact that it has such weapons will change the world. A world with a third of its energy resources under Iranian patronage is a different world. A world subjected to the caprices of a nuclear Middle East is a different world. A world in which Israelis and Europeans live under an Islamic cloud of fear is a different world, one in which Western civilization is threatened and Israel faces a threat to its existence. The 2009 election campaign was a circus. Never before has Israel held such fateful elections on such a superficial level. The existential question was never mentioned. The question of whether our leaders are capable of dealing with the issue was not discussed. The DJ's booth at the Haoman 17 club was what separated the voters and the difficult, historical truth. The present coalition negotiations are also a farce. Never before has such an important Israeli government been established under such a heavy covering of nonsense. Yes, the two-state solution is critical, but a sustainable Palestinian state will not rise in the next year even if Tzipi Livni is prime minister and Yossi Beilin is foreign minister. But if by the summer of 2010 Iran is a nuclear power, that will destroy any chances of peace. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will not survive the fanatical wave that will flood the Arab world on the day Ahmadinejad announces that the Shiite Bomb is ready for use. The insufferable dilemma is between the bomb, or to bomb. Both possibilities are disastrous. Israel has only a few months to formulate a third possibility, but to wake the world up at the last minute and convince the Obama administration, Israel needs a sane government. Israel needs a national unity government. For the last three years Tzipi Livni has been foreign minister. During this precious time she did not do a single substantive thing to stop the centrifuges of Natanz. Livni's failure vis-a-vis Iran is so much more serious than Golda's before the Yom Kippur War. But Livni's decision to thwart a national emergency government is no longer just a failure; it is a patently immoral decision that endangers Israel's future. Kadima must immediately reverse the irresponsible decision. History will never forgive any Israeli who stood in the way at this time of truth. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Writing on the wall For payment Palestinian artists offer to spray-paint personal texts on the West Bank wall. Lieber-fear II The real issue is why Israelis voted Lieberman.   1.   Once again. Ari Shavit is lucid, sober and right on target. 03:09  |  Fortuna Benmayor 26/02/09   2.   An incoherent article 05:17  |  Michael N 26/02/09   3.   Livni Has Proved Her Motto is "me first" 09:23  |  Baruch Gold 26/02/09   4.   A threat to Israels existence? 09:57  |  Natallie Durson 26/02/09   5.   Traumatized distortions, not analysis 09:59  |  John K. 26/02/09   6.   Ari Shavit is absolutely right 10:15  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/02/09   7.   #4, Durson 10:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/02/09   8.   Make up your mind Mr. Shavit 11:15  |  Stan 26/02/09   9.   Shavit needs to answer these questions to avoid being incoherent 13:26  |  Udi 26/02/09   10.   You guys don´t understand, Shavit is not inconsistent 16:41  |  Galili 26/02/09

Read & React Orthodox irate over women rabbis' prayer at Western Wall Responses: 83 Former peace negotiators urge world to engage with Hamas Responses: 69 Israel launches campaign against UN nuke watchdog chief Responses: 40 Iran assuming Mughniyeh role inside Hezbollah Responses: 37 Editorial: You can't make Qassams out of pasta Responses: 19 More Headlines 01:25 U.S. says it seeks to end Iran's nuclear ambitions 00:13 Barak: We're running out of time on Iran threat 00:49 Lieberman: I back establishment of a viable Palestinian state 23:51 Netanyahu to U.S. envoy: I'll honor Israel's previous commitments 16:57 Israel's next government will be 'more Jewish and more Zionist' 21:37 Clinton: Too soon to say whether U.S.-Syria ties will thaw 19:58 Nobel laureate Elie Wiesel says he cannot forgive Madoff 22:53 Canada schools blasted for ban on anti-Israel 'apartheid' poster 22:32 Israel bombs Gaza tunnels in response to Qassam fire 15:45 Lieber-fear II: The real issue is why Israelis voted Lieberman 21:22 Catholic bishop that denied Holocaust apologizes for his remarks 15:53 See your message on the West Bank wall, for a price 21:32 Justice Minister urges pardon for disengagement objectors 18:45 IMF report: PA urgently needs $1.5b to cover financing requirements 22:18 NGO: Ariel Sharon's son has commandeered hospital room for personal use Previous Editions Select Day 26 feb 25 feb 24 feb 23 feb 22 feb 20 feb 19 feb 18 feb 17 feb 16 feb 15 feb 13 feb

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