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Last update - 01:51 23/02/2009
Israel's new Iran policy: Sway Obama on Tehran talks
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Barack Obama, Israel News 

The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report was greeted with ennui by the Israeli media, deemed not especially exciting compared to the twists and turns of coalition talks or the tongue-lashing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad.

But the political and security echelons' attitude to the report, which states that Iran has managed to accumulate a ton of enriched uranium and is heading quickly toward a nuclear bomb, is a different story. The report confirms the assumption, shared for some time by the intelligence services of Israel, the United States and Europe, that Iran is closer to the bomb, with mid-2010 as the likely date it will reach its goal.

Iran was a major topic of conversation between Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and U.S. senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman on their recent visits to Israel.
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From Israel's perspective, President Barack Obama is a key player in the Iranian drama. Although Obama has more urgent things on his agenda - first and foremost among them the rehabilitation of the U.S. economy - Iran will be his first major foreign-policy test. Israel regards Obama's decision to talk to Tehran about its nuclear program as a done deal. What it is trying to do, in a low-profile way, is to impact the way the Americans reach the point of dialogue.

In his lecture last week to senior IDF officers, Barak sketched the outlines of the Israeli approach in the coming months. Israel hopes that potential U.S.-Iranian talks will be relatively short-term, and harbors few illusions about a positive outcome.

When and if talks fail, Israel would expect the U.S. to head an international move for immediate and harsher sanctions, this time effectively involving Russia, China and India. The assumption is that Obama will find it easier than Bush to urge the world to pressure Iran, especially after he shows he has taken dialogue as far as it can go.

Israel would prefer for the Americans to condition their talks with Iran on freezing uranium enrichment during the talks.

The oversight system now allows reasonable follow-up on whether Tehran is meeting this condition. In the 15 years of Tehran's contacts with the international community, it has proven itself a master of deception and delay and Israel is concerned that the Iranians will use the dialogue as a feint, while steadily moving closer to a bomb.

But it is difficult to imagine Iran agreeing to this condition, similar to the one it rejected when the Bush administration proposed it.

And if all efforts fail? Barak told the cabinet yesterday that "Israel will take no option off the table." The commander of the Israel Navy, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom said in a rare statement yesterday: "An axis of evil coordinated between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas will require Israel to wage a campaign against it that will require our best efforts and abilities."

The General Staff is divided about the practical chances of such a campaign if Israel goes it alone, without coordination with and assistance from the United States.

The Israeli statements illustrate that the Middle East is beginning to move according to a new schedule: elections in Iran and in Lebanon in June, U.S.-Iranian talks and perhaps sanctions. Attention in Israel is gradually being directed eastward and northward, toward the possibility of a renewed front with Hezbollah and perhaps even with Syria.

That is one of the main reasons the General Staff supports a cease-fire with Hamas in the south that would also include the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Israel is about to have more pressing problems.

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      1.   Israel just can`t make friends 02:56  |  Marc Lebanon 23/02/09
      2.   If Obama Doesn`t Have The Backbone To Stop Iran 03:08  |  UsedToPostHere 23/02/09
      3.   This article is twisting the report 03:22  |  Butros Dahu 23/02/09
      4.   Relying on Obama is useless 03:22  |  Frank 23/02/09
      5.   THEY KEEP PUSHING THE DATES BACK 03:40  |  Joey 23/02/09
      6.   WHERE`S THE EVIDENCE!! 03:43  |  Damian Lataan 23/02/09
      7.   Israel will be the ones under US pressure 04:20  |  binny 23/02/09
      8.   Is Israel smoking dope? 04:29  |  Mark Lincoln 23/02/09
      9.   World War 3 04:53  |  N-John 23/02/09
      10.   Who`s Going To Stop The Persian Bomb? 05:33  |  Jeff Northridge 23/02/09
      11.   Israel Needs a NEW POLICY 05:47  |  Mark of Lewiston 23/02/09
      12.   Meddling in US affairs 06:41  |  aaron 23/02/09
      13.   US National Intelligence Estimate 07:21  |  steve 23/02/09
      14.   Obama has accepted the notion of an Iranian bomb 07:48  |  Natallie Durson 23/02/09
      15.   Iran is present at our borders : The terrorist movements... 08:05  |  Jean Van Daem 23/02/09
      16.   Only America and Israel have the potential capacity and will ... 08:07  |  Jean Van Daem 23/02/09
      17.   Dream on. In case you had not noticed its Obama and not Bush the 08:43  |  KR 23/02/09
      18.   All this, from a nation sitting on 200-400 clandestine nukes 09:06  |  Clickfool 23/02/09
      19.   Be our guest, Jean van Daem # 16 10:10  |  Clickfool 23/02/09
      20.   Iranians made fools of Bush and Rice Now Obama? 10:27  |  Shalom Freedman 23/02/09
      21.   Why would China, Russia etc care? 10:31  |  Emile Boustani 23/02/09
      22.   HOW DO YOU KNOW EXACTLY? 10:43  |  indrajaya 23/02/09
      23.   #8, Mark Lincoln 11:04  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/02/09
      24.   LATAAN WHERE IS THE OPEN INSPECTION IRAN AGREED TO? 11:05  |  PETER SM 23/02/09
      25.   #11, Mark of Lewiston 11:08  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/02/09
      26.   Israel`s futile attempts... 11:13  |  DT 23/02/09
      27.   Better let Israel be "SWAYED" by Obama!! 11:14  |  S 23/02/09
      28.   Israel didn`t make such noise before bombing Gaza, Libanon or Syr 11:34  |  a man 23/02/09
      29.   So Israel is not going to 12:57  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/02/09
      30.   Obama "Zionism is a just idea, united Jerusalem is Israeli" 13:20  |  Realist 23/02/09
      31.   correction: KADIMA`s new policy - not Israel`s 14:26  |  Avi 23/02/09
      32.   Obama has pledged to prevent Iranian nukes 14:33  |  Shalom Freedman 23/02/09
      33.   The U.S. will divorce Israel. Good riddance. 16:28  |  Lou Medel 23/02/09
      34.   #25 17:22  |  American 23/02/09
      35.   Responsibility and Integrity 18:45  |  Jacob 23/02/09
      36.   Is the West convinced? 18:50  |  Jacob Roodenburg 23/02/09
      37.   It`s Russia that matters with Iran, not Obamerica 19:00  |  Voice of Reason 23/02/09
      38.   Mark - Why Need Israel Make An Offer To Begin With Isn`t Peace... 20:32  |  Eli 23/02/09
      39.   #35 20:38  |  American 23/02/09
      40.   If Israel wants to enforce the NPT, sign it first 21:03  |  binny 23/02/09
      41.   Obama the appeaser. 22:49  |  4:20 23/02/09
      42.   President Obama clearly said nuclear armed Iran is "unacceptable" 23:01  |  PETER SM 23/02/09
      43.   A nuclear armed Iran. 23:57  |  Sarah 23/02/09
      44.   Iran a threat - Israel a reality 02:43  |  Canuckistan 24/02/09
      45.   Does anyone have 500 000 soldiers to spare? 05:35  |  Magnus K. 24/02/09
      46.   BAD move, israel! you`re just gonna show your true colors! 05:52  |  eric 24/02/09
      47.   Peter SM; you ask where is the open inspections? 05:52  |  Damian Lataan 24/02/09
      48.   Hello Canuckistan,your facts,are distorted & innacurate 06:11  |  Sarah 24/02/09
      49.   # 2 for usedto re: iran (2nd try) 06:55  |  eric 24/02/09
      50.   Iran & nukes, Binny#40, Canuckistan#44 et.al 06:59  |  Elina 24/02/09
      51.   DAMIAN Israel has not signed any obligation for inspection.Iran 07:13  |  PETER SM 24/02/09
      52.   48 Sarah and pre-emption 07:36  |  binny 24/02/09
      53.   Iran & nukes 08:37  |  Elina 24/02/09
      54.   Big Mistake, Obama!! 08:38  |  Westwell 24/02/09
      55.   Hey Elina & Binny in a race of who goes first. 09:05  |  Sarah 24/02/09
      56.   Iran a red herring, Israeli smoke and mirrors diverting Obama 09:18  |  Ivar 24/02/09
      57.   Peter SM. You still have no evidence 12:10  |  Damian Lataan 24/02/09
      58.   #48 - Sarah 16:59  |  Canuckistan 24/02/09
      59.   What will happen to Israel proper??? 17:01  |  JT 24/02/09
      60.   Iranian Agression 17:04  |  JT 24/02/09
      61.   Iran 17:07  |  JT 24/02/09
      62.   Canuckstan - Learn Your Facts and Then Post, You Disgrace Our... 18:50  |  Eli 24/02/09
      63.   # 25 Mark of Lewinston Influenced by...And Mark L SnuffingSnoww 20:23  |  Just Me 24/02/09
      64.   #32 Obama has pledged to prevent Iranian nukes.. 20:25  |  Just Me 24/02/09
      65.   #40 Israel has not admitted having nukes.Therefore.. 20:27  |  Just Me 24/02/09
      66.   #54 Give a little,take a little..A two way street. 20:30  |  Just Me 24/02/09
      67.   The Verdict..The Ayes have it.The Ayes have it. 20:51  |  The Judge 24/02/09
      68.   To Sarah from Florida 00:12  |  Sam 25/02/09
      69.   what about your facts?? 00:20  |  Sam 25/02/09
      70.   Whilst the world is focused on Tehran. 08:07  |  Stephen. 25/02/09
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