Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., August 19, 2009 Av 29, 5769 | | Israel Time: 12:44 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Focus U.S.A. Travel Week's End Anglo File
Share |
Last update - 09:30 18/02/2009
It's possible to live with Iran
By Reuven Pedatzur
Tags: Israel News, Iran

One of the most urgent strategic issues the new government will have to deal with is Iran. The cabinet will have to choose one of four options for addressing the Iranian threat, or a combination: active defense, passive defense, attack and deterrence. The significance of the choice will be seen in the huge budgets that will have to be directed to the options chosen.

The choice of one or more of the first three options is liable to turn out to be a major strategic mistake. Unfortunately, such a choice has already been made, because for the time being Israeli policy is based on active defense. The only justification offered by defense officials for the continued large investment in the Arrow missile defense system, which will increase with the development of the next-generation Arrow 3, is that this is the way to defend Israel from Iran's nuclear missiles.

Hopefully the cabinet will be presented with the strategic doctrine developed in the United States during the Cold War and adopted by the Soviet Union, whereby countries must not rely on active defense. After all, it is enough for two nuclear missiles to hit the greater Tel Aviv area for the price to be unbearable. Since no defense system can promise a hermetic defense, and a number of missiles can be expected to trickle through, a defense system becomes irrelevant in the face of a nuclear threat. What American defense secretary Robert McNamara understood more than 40 years ago they are refusing to internalize here.
Advertisement
Passive defense, which means building nuclear shelters in Israel, is not a realistic option. It would cost so much that it would be an unreasonable investment. Another problem is that many people would not reach a shelter in time in a sudden attack. This option, too, was abandoned by the United States four decades ago because it was unrealistic.

Some defense officials preach the implementation of the "attack option," which would, according to them, delay the Iranian nuclear program by a number of years. Some of these people also say that a military action could help undermine the regime in Iran. The ministers should hear about this plan.

They would find out that many of the targets are buried very deep underground and the air force's bombs would not be able to destroy them. They would also learn that there is not enough intelligence on Iran's nuclear sites, and it's possible that other sites exist that we don't know about, so it's impossible to attack them. If the ministers study the data closely, they will find that the air power Israel would be able to deploy over Iran is quite limited relative to the number of targets it would have to attack. As for undermining the regime, the time has come to learn from experience, most recently in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli attack only strengthens support for the regime attacked.

What remains is the fourth option, which is conditional on the reliability of foreign sources: deterrence. There is a need to invest in this, though not a lot. According to foreign sources, Israel has managed to build up a deterrent capability, including a second-strike capacity from submarines. Only deterrence will prevent Iran from using its nuclear weapons. Only the knowledge that Iran's cities will become heaps of rubble if a single rocket is launched at Israel will dispel from the minds of Iran's leaders the thought of a nuclear strike.

The choice of the correct option will not only save a lot of money, it will ensure Israel's security.
PROMOTION: Mamilla Hotel
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
Swedish blood libel
Top Sweden newspaper says IDF kills Palestinians for their organs.
'Obama is a threat'
The driving force behind the 'birther' movement has found her star is rising in Israel.
  1.   You can`t get there from here 10:37  |  Natallie Durson 18/02/09
  2.   Durson, do you have guts to 10:54  |  Sceptic 18/02/09
  3.   You forgot something.... 11:00  |  Proud Zionist 18/02/09
  4.   For Natallie 11:01  |  Proud Zionist 18/02/09
  5.   Deterrence is the only option. 11:07  |  Tzfonit 18/02/09
  6.   Ridiculus comments 11:57  |  Adrian 18/02/09
  7.   IRAN IS NOT A PROBLEM FOR ISRAEL ! 12:00  |  Mahmood 18/02/09
  8.   I, for sure know the answer!! 12:08  |  Obed 18/02/09
  9.   M.A.D. 12:15  |  michael Cohen 18/02/09
  10.   This bit is laughable! 12:22  |  Johnboy 18/02/09
  11.   FINALLY, SHE GOT THE MESSAGE 12:29  |  indrajaya 18/02/09
  12.   Reality check 12:43  |  Neutered Observer 18/02/09
  13.   Adrian in Australia, Iran is not our neighbor. 13:30  |  Tzfonit 18/02/09
  14.   I Think the Iranians Know That 15:26  |  Yaakov Sullivan 18/02/09
  15.   Why they hate us 16:19  |  Marty Green 18/02/09
  16.   Koran 16:21  |  Eye Dee Ef 18/02/09
  17.   Living with Iran is STUPIDITY...PURE NONSENSE. 16:44  |  dav zee 18/02/09
  18.   Israel can live with a nuclear Iran 16:58  |  Manny Goldstein 18/02/09
  19.   Jerusalem, Tehran, Washington 17:01  |  Anonymous 18/02/09
  20.   good article 17:35  |  arik 18/02/09
  21.   #16 Where the 72 virgins came from? 17:38  |  Sammy from Jordan 18/02/09
  22.   `Right on` Ridiculous comments 17:46  |  Phi Craig 18/02/09
  23.   Iran Desreves Respect 18:02  |  JJ 18/02/09
  24.   Johnboy, You are Laughable and miss the point completely 18:07  |  Sarah 18/02/09
  25.   # 13 Tzfonit ...... Iran`s nuclear pipe dreams 18:19  |  allang 18/02/09
  26.   Sammy from Jordan 18:29  |  Persian Kitty 18/02/09
  27.   "active defense", ha ha, you mean attack first. 18:30  |  Lou Medel 18/02/09
  28.   #16 Our holy Koran dosen;t talk about 72 virgins 18:36  |  Yaakov Sullivan 18/02/09
  29.   Point a nuke at Moscow 18:40  |  GR 18/02/09
  30.   Iranian not Arabs!! 18:41  |  Dan 18/02/09
  31.   To Phil Craig - Please Advise 18:42  |  Eli 18/02/09
  32.   Live with Iran 18:46  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  33.   #21 Agree. As a moderate Muslim I agree 100% 18:50  |  Yaakov Sullivan 18/02/09
  34.   MAD works 18:54  |  David M 18/02/09
  35.   72 Vrgins 18:55  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  36.   Iran 19:01  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  37.   Reason for hatred?? 19:09  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  38.   Hate 19:18  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  39.   1967 19:32  |  Sammy 18/02/09
  40.   Sammy, three points 20:20  |  Benny 18/02/09
  41.   Mullahs & death as a speed lane to heaven 21:40  |  Nathaniel 18/02/09
  42.   The 72 Virgins are from the Hadith 23:14  |  UsedToPostHere 18/02/09
  43.   #5 Tzfonit 04:35  |  Jim 19/02/09
  44.   #15 Marty Green 05:20  |  Jim 19/02/09
  45.   The "only"- phrases are an Israeli tic. 06:24  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/02/09
  46.   Second Strike Capability - the Only Option 06:47  |  Reid 19/02/09
  47.   To GR (#29) 07:05  |  Morris Valentine 19/02/09
  48.   Our nuclear weapons are escalating the race 07:09  |  Dave schwab 19/02/09
  49.   Pedatzur fails to mention 09:16  |  Yonatan 19/02/09
  50.   #42 Used to post here 04:38  |  janet 20/02/09
  51.   #24 Your theory appears to have two big holes in it, Sarah. 04:51  |  Johnboy 20/02/09
  52.   re: janet 17:20  |  UsedToPostHere 20/02/09
  53.   The real problem with the argument 19:44  |  dan 13/03/09
  54.   a 5th option 23:03  |  Ma 18/08/09
Special Offers
Advertisement
Dead Sea Salt
From the Dead Sea Coupon cofe Haaretz for 10% off!
hotel Jerusalem
David Citadel Hotel, come stay at the finest of Jerusalem hotels.
Master's Program in Desert Studies
An innovative, multidisciplinary, international program specialized in Desert Research
Dead Sea Cosmetics .Summer Specials
Velvet Hand Cream just $14.90
Handmade In Tel Aviv
Itay Noy, Timepiece Maker
ISRAEL ARMY SURPLUS STORE
IDF insignia,Uniforms, Paladium Boots Watches, Israel Army T-shirts & Collectibles
Eldan Rent a Car
Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on online reservations
Junkyard
Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
More Headlines
07:32 Sources: UN watchdog hiding evidence on Iran nuclear program
06:34 ANALYSIS / Israel, U.S. lost faith in IAEA long ago
12:05 'I'm no anti-Semite,' says Swedish writer of IDF organ harvest story
12:10 Public Security Min.: Police not solely responsible for violent crime
10:48 Medvedev: I'll review decision to sell Iran anti-aircraft missiles
10:30 IDF: One third of soldiers could refuse to evacuate outposts
02:56 Russian Jews ponder age-old question: Israel or the U.S.?
11:25 TV ROUND-UP: Mubarak talks Shalit, Peres meets Medvedev, Israeli felled by swine flu
10:42 Mubarak: U.S. will unveil first draft of Mideast peace plan next month
08:56 Amira Hass / Why is Israel limiting movement of Palestinian-Canadian businessman?
04:45 Six Arab families from East Jerusalem appeal eviction
06:32 ANALYSIS / Mubarak fills void left by Israel in revealing Shalit details
06:18 Are you a Jewish doctor? Then Israel wants you
Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Site rules |
| Israel 2009 election results | Makom: Engaging on Israel
| Search engine marketing
Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved