Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., February 19, 2009 Shvat 25, 5769 | | Israel Time: 22:35 (EST+7)   Back to Homepage web haaretz.com Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Joy of Giving Travel Week's End Anglo File

So many challenges, so little time By Amir Oren Tags: IDF, Israel News Maj. Gen. Avi Mizrahi is a veteran professional officer, graduate of the Reali military academy, the Golani reconnaissance unit and the Shin Bet security service, who returned to the career army and moved up the ranks of the Armored Corps to command the 36th Division in the Golan Heights. On election day, Mizrahi gave a talk at the Tactical Command College, at the Glilot base, where he blasted a new adversary: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister. Among the audience were dozens of foreign guests and local officers, who were attending an international conference on military psychology organized, for the third time, by the behavioral sciences center of Army Headquarters. The participants included Americans and Germans, a Swiss woman (from the International Committee of the Red Cross), a Brazilian and many more - people who see the IDF as an important organization, from whose learning and investigational abilities other armies and foreign institutions can benefit. In the wake of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip, the senior officer corps is embittered by the disparity between the efforts it went to to engage in selective combat in densely populated areas and the international perception of the operation's outcome. Thus it was that Mizrahi - who formerly served as the Army Headquarters' (the IDF ground forces) representative to the U.S. armed forces and frequently met with other army commanders who had been involved in the fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan - chose the platform of the international conference to deliver a sharp message. He attacked Erdogan for what the Turkish leader imputed to President Shimon Peres at another international conference, the World Economic Forum in Davos. Paraphrasing from Scriptures, he called on Erdogan to look in the mirror. He did not leave it at a clear allusion to the massacre of the Armenians and the suppression of the Kurds, but mentioned the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus as well. In response to Erdogan's call for Israel to be expelled from the United Nations, Mizrahi suggested that Turkey should be paired with Israel on such an occasion. Advertisement Assad's price The Gaza operation did not solve any long-term problems. The Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak school of thought is inclined to hold indirect negotiations with Hamas, under Egyptian mediation, on a 12- or 18-month cease-fire. But if we are to believe Benjamin Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni, a bitter war will need to be fought against Hamas' rule in Gaza. This is a strategic decision that is within the government's purview, but its price in the era of U.S. President Barack Obama, and before the rehabilitation of the ruins left by Operation Cast Lead, will be deducted from Israel's political credit. Of all the alternatives that were analyzed, the one adopted by Hamas - to avoid armed confrontation with the IDF - was considered the least likely in Israel on the eve of the operation. Accordingly, there is no knowing how the military confrontation will unfold if Israel renews it. The same is true with regard to the Hezbollah front, particularly in these tense weeks of vigilance, in the wake of the threats to avenge the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, a senior Hezbollah operative, and more intensely in the Syrian arena. Syrian President Bashar Assad wants to upgrade, under American auspices, the indirect talks that were held with Israel under Turkish mediation and which fell apart with the political demise of George W. Bush and Olmert (and after Gaza and Davos). The Syrian president is ready for a direct give-and-take approach. Assad can also act unilaterally and tell Obama that he is willing to make peace with Israel in exchange for the return of the Golan Heights. Such an approach would result in instant American pressure on Israel to pay its part in the deal; in that scenario, a military echelon that in the past signaled its acceptance of such an agreement will face off against a government - key elements of which, perhaps even the leading ones, reject this out of hand. Refusal to adjust to the new reality in Washington-Damascus relations will throw Israel into a serious reevaluation crisis, of the type Obama has ordered held in other arenas. With planes becoming more expensive and resources dwindling, conditioning U.S. aid on an Israeli contribution to regional stability will be accepted and understood by the American public and by Congress. In this battle, against a popular president armed with a persuasive argument, AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby in Washington, will lose - if it even dares risk a defeat that will deal a mortal blow to its deterrent capability. Doubling the danger The budgetary distress has forced the defense establishment to strip naked before the consultancy firm McKinsey and Associates, which is supposed to recommend revolutionary changes and cuts in the IDF's organizational culture and way of life, as well as in the Defense Ministry and in the military industries. To unify wasteful double systems and shut down outmoded units, a solid political base is required, along with a willingness to clash with conservative officers and militant work committees. The next prime minister and defense minister will soon find out whether Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi will join them in this painful undertaking. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon, Admiral Michael Mullen, said last week in a talk at Princeton University that, "Israel is an extremely close ally of ours. And I don't see us walking away from that relationship in any way, shape or form." Mullen was speaking against the background of the most challenging issue of the period - namely, the Iranian nuclear project and the declared ambition of the regime in Tehran to annihilate Israel. The severity of the Iranian threat is increasing, owing to two negative developments in the past few days: Pakistan's decision to free the traveling salesman of nuclear know-how, Abdul Qadeer Khan, and the gradual drift away from the sphere of American influence by the Iraqi government, headed by Nouri al-Maliki. If Obama orders an accelerated withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, to be completed by the summer of 2010, the process by which an independent Iraq positions itself against its neighbor and permanent adversary, Iran, will also be hastened. Iraq will not sit idly by in the face of a nuclear Iran. It will want its own nuclear weapon. That desire constitutes a possibility that the danger to Israel will double, unless Iraq agrees to coordinate with Israel an operation to thwart the Iranian nuclear program. Amid this tangle, Obama, who is moving to restrict nuclear proliferation worldwide, might suggest a freeze on the production of nuclear material in the region, including at Natanz and Isfahan, and allegedly at Dimona, too. Target date: spring 2010, the date of the next world conference - which meets every five years - to examine the nuclear proliferation regime. Israel's next defense, foreign affairs and finance ministers will very soon receive a gloomy appraisal of the situation: Militarily, Israel cannot accept the existence of nuclear weapons in Iran. Economically, Israel cannot afford an arms race, even of conventional weapons, with Iran and other regional powers that will go nuclear. And politically, it cannot allow itself to get drawn into a frontal clash with the Obama administration. It will not be surprising if a security crisis that flares up at the height of the political wrangling in Israel will provide Livni, Netanyahu and Barak, at the prodding of Shimon Peres, reason enough to unite in a joint government. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Hitler parody Israeli YouTube Hitler parody infuriates Holocaust survivors. "Like a virgin" Will Virgin Mary TV spoof jeopardize Pope visit to Israel?   1.   the BOMB, is a deterring force. 19:07  |  j.lashak-korogodsky 13/02/09   2.   observation 19:37  |  potobac 13/02/09   3.   Mirzahi speech: accusing Turkey as the biggest killer 20:57  |  loyalfriend 13/02/09   4.   What a joke- Turkish occupation of Cyprus!??? 20:59  |  loyafriend 13/02/09   5.   Mr Mirzahi 21:03  |  loyalfriend 13/02/09   6.   Fabricated `Armenian Genocide` 21:24  |  loyalfreind 13/02/09   7.   Nonsense! Only ONE change needed: liquidate Settler Enterprise 07:39  |  Ivar 14/02/09   8.   Mr. Mirzahi is absolutely right to confront Turkish hypocrisy 08:08  |  Alan 16/02/09

Read & React Lieberman backs Netanyahu for prime minister Responses: 41 Haruki Murakami: Why I decided to go to Israel after Gaza war Responses: 36 Gideon Levy: Netanyahu, put your money where your mouth is Responses: 64 Rabin's assassin Yigal Amir forced to look at picture of his victim Responses: 26 Israeli YouTube Hitler parody infuriates Holocaust survivors Responses: 74 More Headlines 22:09 Egypt recalls commerce delegation to Israel 22:05 U.S. Mideast envoy: Settlements are not the only issue 17:40 Livni to Kadima: We're going to the opposition 20:08 Ariel Zilber / Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, we'll miss you 19:37 IAEA: New uranium traces found at suspected Syria nuclear site 18:47 Hundreds gather at Tel Aviv mall expecting cash to fall from the sky 20:30 U.S. Senator John Kerry makes rare visit to Hamas-ruled Gaza 21:09 3 Qassam rockets strike western Negev; no one hurt 20:08 Netanyahu, put your money where your mouth is 20:36 Jewish Yemenite family arrives in Israel after secret rescue 15:19 Iran envoy calls for global nuclear disarmament 16:56 Report: Vatican readmits society that propagates anti-Semitism 19:21 UAE grants Israeli tennis player Ram visa to compete in Dubai tournament 18:55 Amnesty: Egypt will not disclose location of blogger protesting its Gaza policy Previous Editions Select Day 18 feb 17 feb 16 feb 15 feb 13 feb 12 feb 11 feb 10 feb 09 feb 08 feb 06 feb 05 feb

Special Offers Advertisement Spring Specials-Dan Hotels Jerusalem from 179$. Tel-Aviv from 223$. Herzliya from 336$ Dead Sea Skin Care Quality cosmetics from the Dead Sea. Coupon code HAARETZ for 12% off! Summer in Israel Israeli style - Tzofim Chetz V'Keshet 2009 Passover Vacations The BEST Passover Vacations around ? Mexico, Arizona and Florida Camp Kimama Israel 2009 The best place for your children this summer Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on online reservations Jewish Singles Personal Ads Find the love of your life on JDate.com Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | | Israel 2009 election results

Site rules | Makom: Engaging on Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved