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ANALYSIS / Fatah fears Shalit deal will bring down Abbas
By Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: fatah, hamas, israel news 

Concerned voices have been heard in the Muqata in Ramallah over the past few days: Senior Palestinian Authority and Fatah officials are speaking openly of the end of an era if an agreement to free abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit is reached.

Palestinian officials say a Shalit deal would bring about early elections in the territories, and Hamas would win again - but this time it would win the Palestinian presidential election, too. Israel would then be forced to deal with a Hamas-controlled Palestinian Authority in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, they say.

The latest poll from the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre conducted in the territories shows the recent war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip afforded the Islamic organization unprecedented popularity.
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For the first time, Hamas is leading Fatah in the polls: 28.6 percent for Hamas compared to 27.9 percent for Fatah. Despite the euphoria in Israel over the Gaza operation, on the Palestinian side at least, some 46.7 percent view the Gaza fighting as a Hamas victory and only 9.8 percent deemed Israel the victor. Some 37.4 percent thought there was no winner.

The reports first published in Haaretz, that there was a breakthrough in the deal for Shalit's return, bode ill for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The immediate significance of a Shalit agreement would be the assembly of the Palestinian parliament again, including all the Hamas representatives now sitting in Israeli prisons. This has Fatah concerned, as Hamas would apparently claim a large majority in the parliament and could therefore render Salam Fayyad's government illegal. Hamas could also pass a law stating Abbas's term had ended on January 9 and he now had to resign and hold new elections.

It is not at all clear if any or all of these events would transpire. Egypt, which is mediating the contacts to free Shalit, will try to receive guarantees from Hamas that it will not take such steps, but nothing can truly prevent the organization from making use of its majority in the parliament.

Before the war in Gaza, Hamas did not seek early elections for either the parliament or the presidency as it feared it would lose power; however, after securing a Shalit deal and a "victory" against Israel in Gaza, it would expect increased support.

Arab papers have mentioned Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti as one of the prisoners who could be freed in the Shalit deal. However, even though Barghouti enjoys wide support among the Palestinian public, he would have a difficult time lashing out against those who secured his release. Such a move might provide Fatah with a future leader, but even Barghouti could not stop the wave of support for Hamas.

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      2.   Well, DUH!!! Why act all surprised? 03:57  |  Johnboy 09/02/09
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      22.   If this is true, then I was, & am, WRONG! And Netanyahu is right! 10:49  |  S 09/02/09
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