Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., January 21, 2009 Tevet 25, 5769 | | Israel Time: 11:26 (EST+7)
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A need for new strategic thinking
By Zvi Bar'el
Tags: gaza, iran, hamas 

An international coalition scurried to reach a cease-fire, save Gaza and draw up a complex, three-part agreement that would stem arms smuggling to Hamas. The strongest army in the Middle East can register a victory against the group. It may even be that Israel has restored its deterrent against the Palestinian civilian population. Perhaps this will only be temporary, like after Operation Litani in 1978 or Grapes of Wrath in 1996, or perhaps a little longer, like after Operation Defensive Shield in 2002. Calm but no security, cease-fire but no tranquillity. This is a victory meant to send out a series of messages - to Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and mostly to Iran. To burn into their consciousness and emphasize once again the threat from Israel.

But in all the ruckus in the Gaza Strip, the great threat, the real threat, was out to lunch. During the past three weeks did anyone hear anything about Iran's nuclear program? The threat that terrified Israel is still hovering and Israel is not a more secure country after the war. The toy blocks that were tossed in the air in Gaza have landed in a new line. Turkey is no longer that same dear friend; Jordan has become a suspicious object; the Palestinian Authority will find it hard to put forth an overall Palestinian leadership without cooperating with Hamas; the United States of George W. Bush "dared" to submit a proposal less in line with Israel's interests, paving the way for the Obama administration to continue along the same path; official Europe did not hesitate to condemn Israel; and Egypt, which initiated the cease-fire and will be accountable for ensuring that it is met, is infuriated with Israel and Hamas for forcing it into such a tight spot.

Not a single Hezbollah Katyusha will be disarmed because of the war in the Gaza Strip, and Iran's nuclear program is just fine, thank you. Now, more than ever, Israelis will have to make sure they speak English when they travel abroad.
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There is no point in trying to think of what would have happened if. If Israel had recognized the Hamas government when it was elected; if it had treated Mahmoud Abbas seriously or had really negotiated with Syria. Memoirs do not make policy. In any case, Israel opted for an arrangement that followed a new order, with hints and pats on the back instead of working papers; photo-ops instead of a vision for the future.

But tomorrow Israel is getting a new American president - a president who has already explained to everyone that he prefers a new order over temporary arrangements. He is ready to turn a new page of dialogue with Iran; to reexamine U.S.-Syrian relations; to consider Iraq as a bitter episode from which it is best to exit quickly. He even thinks there is no longer a need to kill Osama bin Laden. He is not threatening. Barack Obama may bring along a new set of lessons for the Middle East that may not result in a real solution, but will force Israel to adjust its strategic thinking.

Obama is committed to Israel's security as Bush and Clinton were, but he may come to see the essence of such security in a different way. Peace, for example, may be seen by him as an essential component of Israel's security. This may be novel, and perhaps even revolutionary in Israeli eyes, but it had better prepare - not using lobbyists in Washington but by planning for constructive dialogue with its neighbors.

Israel, whose strategic choices bolstered the significance and threat posed by armed groups, will need to reevaluate its approach to the Saudi initiative. The safety belt it offers can dissolve the threats of these groups if Israel understands that they threaten the Arab states no less than they threaten it. Israel needs the Saudi initiative not because it needs Arab security, but because it needs to aspire to permanent arrangements with states, not with groups or gangs.

If Syria is the one influencing Hamas and Hezbollah, if Egypt's status is what determines the region's future, if Saudi Arabia is the counterweight against Iran, these are the partners with whom it is necessary to make a deal and not with their subcontractors. The Saudi initiative has still not expired, but neither have the threats. Without adopting a new strategy that will bolster the Saudi initiative, the war in the Gaza Strip will remain a successful episode and nothing more; a temporary arrangement until the next round.
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  1.   Defeated by Hizbollah, they failed to intimidate Hamas 07:37  |  The Jewish Fist 19/01/09
  2.   Iran learned a lesson that Israel can be "crazy" too. 08:45  |  Rob 19/01/09
  3.   Obama`s challenge 08:53  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 19/01/09
  4.   Yes, "memoirs don`t make policy", but nevertheless... 10:48  |  Esther 19/01/09
  5.   the Iran Strategy 11:05  |  igal azuelos 19/01/09
  6.   No, really? 11:09  |  sh 19/01/09
  7.   No, it didn`t... 12:19  |  nina 19/01/09
  8.   Lizni - this is your job! 12:36  |  Manny Goldstein 19/01/09
  9.   AHMADINEJAD WAS IN DOHA 3 DAYS AGO 13:06  |  indrajaya 19/01/09
  10.   #2 - Rob - totally agreed 13:11  |  ScotGuy 19/01/09
  11.   Obama has to correct 13:18  |  Roo 19/01/09
  12.   New thinkers not thinking 14:46  |  Brian 19/01/09
  13.   A strang world after all. 14:57  |  Ehud 19/01/09
  14.   Saudis and Egyptians should develop nukes to counter Iran. 15:36  |  Observer 19/01/09
  15.   Israel`s Orwellian quiet founded in quagmire of OCCUPATION! 17:36  |  Ivar 19/01/09
  16.   False, irrelevant strategies. 17:36  |  B Saleem 19/01/09
  17.   Democracy Revisited 19:02  |  Voter 19/01/09
  18.   Paranoid Lunacy and national incompetence 20:54  |  Mark Lincoln 19/01/09
  19.   #3 CJK, Obama opposing will is more likely to happen on Golan 21:32  |  Mark B. 19/01/09
  20.   #2 - #10 and Zvi Bar`el. 23:14  |  BigBird 19/01/09
  21.   # 3 to cipora re: syria 01:29  |  eric 20/01/09
  22.   #19, Mark B 06:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 20/01/09
  23.   #20, eric 06:38  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 20/01/09
  24.   # 23 cipora, your bias is based on superficial assessment 23:15  |  eric 20/01/09
  25.   #24, eric 09:42  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 21/01/09
  26.   # 25 to cipora 11:11  |  eric 21/01/09
 Read & React
The first day: President Obama to embrace role in meets on Iraq, economy
Responses: 89
Shai Golden: A strong, victorious Israel is far more likely to make peace
Responses: 5
IDF probes improper use of phosphorus shells in Gaza Strip
Responses: 25
Amira Hass: IDF also kills Palestinians with 'legal' weapons
Responses: 5


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