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ANALYSIS / Key to Israeli exit from Gaza rests with Egypt, U.S.
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News, Gaza, Israel 

A meeting of the "troika" on Wednesday dealt with preparations for a visit to Cairo by senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad, as well as formulating a position that he will present to his Egyptian interlocutors. Upon his return from Cairo, the troika will reconvene to hear his report and to decide whether Israel will accept the Egyptian initiative for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, thus concluding Operation Cast Lead. Israel refrained from issuing a direct response to Hamas' announcement on Wednesday that it is accepting the initiative. However, implicit in the decision to dispatch Gilad to Cairo is Israel's approval of the Egyptian proposal, even if that approval is conditional.



The dissension among the leadership in Jerusalem burst to the fore after Wednesday editions of Haaretz hit newstands with its lead story detailing Defense Minister Ehud Barak's initiative for a cease-fire. The article predictably aroused the fury of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni are adhering to their view that the operation has continued for too long. Olmert, meanwhile, remains steadfast. He believes the operation mustn't be stopped before the objectives have been realized. Faced with assessments offered by Barak and the army which state that the objectives have already been achieved, Olmert is leaning on the head of the Shin Bet security service, Yuval Diskin, and Mossad chief Meir Dagan, both of whom gave backing to the prime minister in his decision to continue.
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On Wednesday, Olmert, Livni, and Barak presented a united front in declaring that they are eagerly awaiting the explanations Gilad is to receive from Egyptian officials. Meanwhile, Livni is negotiating with the American administration via the foreign ministry director-general, Aharon Abramowitz, on an agreement that would tighten intelligence cooperation aimed at stifling weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. If both tracks - the Egyptian and the American - come to fruition on Thursday, the civilian leadership can vote as early as Thursday night on wrapping up the military operation. The question is whether Egypt will provide Olmert with an exit ramp and whether the agreement with the Americans can be consummated.

Time is becoming a factor. Condoleezza Rice will step down from her post as secretary of state on Friday, which is the last day that she will be able to initial an agreement with Livni. At the heart of the document which was drawn up last week stands an unprecedented political commitment from the Americans to combat all form of arms smuggling practiced by Hamas and other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip. Until now, the smuggling has been a secondary issue. Israel would now like the U.S. to explicitly commit to shutting down the arms smuggling networks by sea and by land, share intelligence, and to act as an intermediary vis-a-vis other states.

Israel views this deal as "sticking a foot in the door" of the Obama administration, which will be asked to honor whatever the Bush administration bequeathes upon it. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who will remain in his post during the transition, is intimately familiar with the details of the agreement.

The U.S.-Israeli memorandum of understanding is meant to serve as a layer of a sustainable cease-fire, thus it is clear that the outgoing administration will not sign off on it without an Israeli commitment that Jerusalem would cease military operations. One may view this process as an attempt by Livni to bestow upon Olmert a diplomatic achievement that would serve as an exit ramp leading to the army's exit from Gaza. The talks with Cairo necessitate much more time, and those discussions could be continued well after the cease-fire has been signed.

Related articles:
  • Olmert: Gaza war won't end until rockets and smuggling stop
  • IDF begins deploying reservists into Gaza as part of ground op
  • IDF: Hamas rocket fire down 50% since start of Gaza op
  • Immigration officials: Gaza op hasn`t deterred infiltration of migrants from Egypt
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Hamas's next move
    With Israel having pulled the plug on Cast Lead, the ball is now in Hamas's court in Gaza.
    Testing Obama
    The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has blown up again, on the U.S. president-elect's doorstep.
      1.   GAZA + HAMAS 04:19  |  Zyskandar A. Jaimot 15/01/09
      2.   no cease fire without shaalit free 04:20  |  real vision 15/01/09
      3.   A Strange Heavenly Object 06:22  |  Shimon Cleopas 15/01/09
      4.   Don`t stop the war yet!! 06:43  |  GloomBoom.com 15/01/09
      5.   Cease fire on our terms 10:34  |  Rex 15/01/09
      6.   "sustainable cease-fire" 10:54  |  flimflam 15/01/09
      7.   been there, done that 13:43  |  chanan 15/01/09
      8.   ANALYSIS / Israel Needs a Fig Leaf 15:07  |  Mark Lincoln 15/01/09
      9.   US is not the policeman of the territories. 15:19  |  Dan 15/01/09
      10.   To chanan # 7 - Well said chanan...... 15:23  |  NoName 15/01/09
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