Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., January 15, 2009 Tevet 19, 5769 | | Israel Time: 02:12 (EST+7)   Back to Homepage web haaretz.com Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Joy of Giving Travel Week's End Anglo File

To deter or to defeat By Moshe Arens Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Israel  It is not only our naive foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, who has announced that in the wake of the Gaza operation, Israel has restored its deterrent capability. Many of Israel's politicians are echoing this view. This would suggest that whereas Hamas did not hesitate to launch rockets against Israel's towns and villages over these past years, after the blows it took these past weeks it will not dare to do so again in the future. Our military spokesmen boast of the blows Hamas has received, of the massive destruction of its infrastructure, of the hundreds of Hamas fighters who have been killed, and of the fact that a "price tag" has now been put on their rocket attacks against Israeli civilians, high enough to keep them from repeating such attacks in the future. Some even use the expression the "landlord has gone crazy" to express that from now on, Hamas will fear massive Israeli responses to any attacks. Enamored with the concept of deterrence, some even have gone so far as to claim that the blows delivered by the Israeli Air Force to Lebanese targets during the unsuccessful Second Lebanon War, nevertheless succeeded to reestablish Israel's deterrent capability in the north, as the recent Katyusha rockets that fell on Nahariya were no more than "an isolated incident." Deterrence, after all, provides the best of all possible worlds - the enemy is deterred from launching aggressive action, war and the attendant loss of life is avoided, and in an atmosphere of stability, life can go on normally. The popularity of the concept of deterrence goes back to the Cold War, when the nuclear capabilities of the U.S. and the Soviet Union deterred both countries from launching nuclear strikes on each other. And in fact, the mutually assured destruction, even after being hit by a nuclear strike, was sufficient to establish a balance of terror. Advertisement This concept may apply to some of Israel's neighboring states, countries with considerable human and material assets that might be severely damaged by an Israeli response to aggression, and countries that have totalitarian governments whose rule might be endangered under such circumstances. Whether a nuclear Iran could be deterred by such considerations is not at all certain. That question is being pondered by decision makers in Jerusalem and Washington. But deterring a terrorist organization is quite another matter. It does not seem likely that a terrorist organization could be deterred from pursuing its aims, which include terrorizing civilians. Terrorist organizations do not generally own substantial assets that are vulnerable to attack, and striking them seems to increase their support from their fanatical fans. Their leaders, if killed, are quickly replaced by others. No, Al Qaida cannot be deterred; it has to be defeated. The claim that Hezbollah has been deterred from using its massive rocket arsenal on Israel is based on the fact that since the cease-fire, their rockets have not struck Israel (except for the recent attack in the north). But it is far more likely that rather than being deterred by Israel, Hezbollah intends to move at the time and place of its choosing. The capability to strike is there, and the proverbial pistol in the first act will go off before the play is over. Hamas, a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel, cannot be deterred. As the organization is struck, its support among the local population grows, and its popularity among fundamentalist Muslims around the world increases. It attaches no value to life, whether Muslim or Jewish. Israel is concerned over the loss of life in the Gaza Strip during the current round of fighting, but Hamas is not. The infrastructure in Gaza, if destroyed or damaged, will quickly be rebuilt with foreign donations after the fighting is over. If a cease-fire is established before Hamas' rocket capability has been eliminated, the group will be seen as the victor. The idea of deterring Hamas is a fantasy. Hamas has to be defeated. Defeating it means eliminating its ability to launch rockets at Israel, and that means that the IDF has to reach the areas where the rockets are being launched. When the rockets cease falling on Israel, it will be clear who won this conflict, and from that point all other issues regarding the presence of Hamas in the Gaza Strip can be dealt with. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Following Chavez Bolivia cuts ties with Israel, says it seeks war crimes charges. Who needs the Knesset? Arab parties: We'll establish an alternative Arab parliament.

Read & React Olmert ignoring calls from Barak, Livni for immediate Gaza truce Responses: 71 Harel & Issacharoff: Is Hamas waiting on Obama for Gaza truce? Responses: 27 Hamas: We accept Egypt's proposal for Gaza truce - with reservations Responses: 44 Diplomats: Gaza op causing long-term harm to Israel's image Responses: 88 Israel's defense establishment backs an immediate cease-fire in Gaza Responses: 46 More Headlines 23:28 Hamas: We accept Egypt's proposal for Gaza truce - with reservations 00:09 ANALYSIS / Egypt's Gaza truce plan is mostly bad for Hamas 00:46 IDF soldier seriously hurt in anti-tank missile attack in Gaza 23:34 Hamas Health Ministry: More than 1,000 dead in Gaza 00:06 Rice: Olmert's claims regarding my Gaza UN resolution vote are 'fiction' 21:11 Arab parties: We'll establish an alternative Arab parliament 23:48 U.S. authorities remove 'Adolf Hitler,' 2 siblings with Nazi-like names from family home 23:48 For the first time, Gaza militants fire phosphorus shell at Israel 00:28 Author: Report of jihadist death threats to Madonna old news 23:23 Feminist group slams former envoy to UN Gillerman for 'tasteless' jokes about women 19:36 Bolivia cuts ties with Israel, seeks genocide charges against Israeli officials 17:21 3 rockets fired from Lebanon hit north Israel; IDF returns fire 19:58 Four people hurt as fire rages at Ashdod chemical plant 16:53 Israel indicts two Iran TV journalists for reporting on Gaza ground invasion Previous Editions Select Day 14 jan 13 jan 12 jan 11 jan 09 jan 08 jan 07 jan 06 jan 05 jan 04 jan 02 jan 01 jan

Special Offers Advertisement Summer in Israel Israeli style - Tzofim Chetz V'Keshet 2009 Blue And White Forever Israel Army T-shirts Wear with Proud Donate the Soldiers Kit You can make a direct IMPACT! on the life of an Israeli soldier State of Israel Bonds During this time of market volatility, Israel bonds can help. SURF RAMBAM Keep current about new-wave medical care, education and research. Summer Camp in Israel The best place for your children this summer Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Jewish Singles Personal Ads Find the love of your life on JDate.com Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved