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ANALYSIS / Israeli rejection of Gaza deal may topple Abbas
By Akiva Eldar, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Hamas, Gaza, Israel news 

Click here for more articles by Akiva Eldar

At midnight Friday, according to Hamas' interpretation of the Palestinian constitution, the tenure of Mahmoud Abbas as President of the Palestinian Authority comes to an end.

The confrontation in the Gaza Strip has granted Israel the opportunity to decide whether Abbas will lose his legitimacy before some of his nation, or will secure continued Fatah rule in the West Bank.
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The decision to adopt the Egyptian-French-American compromise may bring an end to the fighting in the Strip and create the conditions for the resumption of the peace process. A decision to reject it may, instead of causing the collapse of Hamas rule in Gaza, bring about the crash of Abbas' rule in the West Bank. And that will, by extension, destroy the road map.

The proposal is based mostly on the 2005 agreement on the crossings that Israel signed. It established that the Rafah crossing would be operated by the Palestinian Authority and a third party - in this case the European Union - would supervise its operation.

In addition it was agreed that the crossings would be operated on a continuous basis and would be described as international border crossings. Israel would allow the crossing of goods and people between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

A Hamas victory in the January 2006 election resulted in the shelving of the document governing the crossings and the Hamas takeover in the Strip, in June 2007, effectively killed it.

Egypt's Hosni Mubarak would be glad to revive the agreement without offering Hamas an official role. But he also understands something that Israel finds difficult to comprehend - that Hamas is not going anywhere. The alternative to including it in the governance of the Gaza Strip does not translate into a new "security reality" but a new chaotic situation.

As such, Mubarak is relying on the willingness of Khaled Meshal, Hamas' politburo chief, to accept the presence of Abbas' officials at the crossings, next to Hamas representatives and European observers. From the point of view of Hamas, this is as far as it can go. If Israel wishes to have a long range cease-fire that will allow the resumption of the peace process with Fatah, it must come the rest of the way.

In order to make this happen, Mubarak is willing to accept the presence of foreign troops in an effort to prevent smuggling of arms into the Gaza Strip. Moreover, Egypt would like to avoid an opening of Rafah crossing that will strengthen the link between the Strip and Sinai, something Cairo fears like the plague.

Incorporating the PA in the running of the crossings would retain Gaza as an inalienable part of the Palestinian situation. Since its election victory three years ago, it turns out that including Hamas in Palestinian government is a necessary condition to solving the problem.


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      1.   Abbas Never Learned What Side he Was On 05:26  |  Shepherd 09/01/09
      2.   BIG DEAL: FRIDAY IS ABBAS`S LAST DAY ANYWAY 05:28  |  Arik Silverman 09/01/09
      3.   An excellent analysis 05:32  |  Arik Silverman 09/01/09
      4.   To everyone: fyi 05:44  |  David R. Zukerman 09/01/09
      5.   no subject just disapointet 06:01  |  charlie 09/01/09
      6.   GET IT THRU YOUR THICK SKULLS! 06:33  |  Johnhboy 09/01/09
      7.   Good Israel get`s Nothing with Abbas 06:46  |  Ralph levy 09/01/09
      8.   Hamas still wants to destroy Israel 06:56  |  S. Stone 09/01/09
      9.   Abbas lose legitimacy? Fact is, he`s never had it 07:10  |  Jacob Blues 09/01/09
      10.   A Dilemma for Israeli Politicians 07:23  |  Mark of Lewiston 09/01/09
      11.   Finland, Estonia radios abuzz watching for peace 07:26  |  Ivar 09/01/09
      12.   Abbas is irrelevant, so is the PA 07:35  |  rm 09/01/09
      13.   Ex-president Abbass 08:02  |  Palestinian 09/01/09
      14.   For the interest of peace, clean the scene from Abbas and Co. 08:36  |  abu ismail 09/01/09
      15.   to Charlie the Arab 09:07  |  goofy jew 09/01/09
      16.   Abbas toppled himself. When will the world wake up? 09:13  |  Joe Sittizen 09/01/09
      17.   to David R. Zukerman #4 - right you are 09:34  |  zeev 09/01/09
      18.   Hamas or Abbas 09:42  |  Samer 09/01/09
      19.   Question form Palestinian 09:53  |  Samer 09/01/09
      20.   to charlie #5 10:00  |  zeev 09/01/09
      21.   How is this possible Tzipi Livni? 10:19  |  Manny Goldstein 09/01/09
      22.   its a good, btw 10:30  |  Alex 09/01/09
      23.   #7 question from pal - answer from Jew 11:02  |  Rachel 09/01/09
      24.   #5, charlie, answer 11:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/01/09
      25.   to Samer #7 11:40  |  zeev 09/01/09
      26.   time running out.. 11:48  |  ravi 09/01/09
      27.   david.... when? 11:50  |  ravi 09/01/09
      28.   no. 7 .. samer 11:51  |  ravi 09/01/09
      29.   Those who don`t want to " end the occupation" are Hamas 12:02  |  Akram Zekaria 09/01/09
      30.   #8 Samer - answer from a jew cont`d 13:04  |  Rachel 09/01/09
      31.   Right now - Shlomo Ben Ami - interesting words 13:25  |  daniel 09/01/09
      32.   HAMAS ruled West Bank 13:34  |  Chris Linthwaite 09/01/09
      33.   they`re not communists... 13:45  |  ST 09/01/09
      34.   #11 Rachel 13:52  |  Rami 09/01/09
      35.   FATAH OPTION STATE DEPT FICTION THAT DOESN`T EXIST IN REALITY 13:56  |  G Marcus 09/01/09
      36.   Abbas is irrelevant 14:02  |  Brod 09/01/09
      37.   Where is the real leader? 14:07  |  Alex 09/01/09
      38.   Whatever keeps them fighting each other is fine 14:18  |  Rod 09/01/09
      39.   Topple Abbas 15:24  |  Joe 09/01/09
      40.   Abbas expired today 15:26  |  Jeff 09/01/09
      41.   "..that, will, by extension destroy the Road Map". YES!! 15:33  |  Dr. L. Brnd 09/01/09
      42.   He`s going down anyhow 15:34  |  Mark Lincoln 09/01/09
      43.   It is time for brave ande wise decisions. 15:38  |  S Awaad 09/01/09
      44.   To SAMER -7&* 15:52  |  S Awaad 09/01/09
      45.   Abbas is useless. peace with hamas only 17:34  |  Paul 09/01/09
      46.   #10 Manny 17:35  |  Brian 09/01/09
      47.   Where id Israel`s darling Dahlan? 17:53  |  MA 09/01/09
      48.   A reminder 18:02  |  Marilyn 09/01/09
      49.   Abbas 18:05  |  rm 09/01/09
      50.   Rachel - Muslims who saved thousands of Jews 18:14  |  MA 09/01/09
      51.   hold your horses Akiva......... 18:27  |  Susan 09/01/09
      52.   Abbas refused to dismantle Hamas in the first place ..so ? 19:46  |  Norah 09/01/09
      53.   Why is the U.S. military training the PA? 20:36  |  Susanna/Shoshana 09/01/09
      54.   Solutions 21:04  |  Mike 09/01/09
      55.   toppling of abbas[abu mazen] 21:08  |  elliot 09/01/09
      56.   to ivar No 11 21:10  |  fish israel 09/01/09
      57.   What about Hamas` rejection? 21:14  |  Robert 09/01/09
      58.   Hamas must change it`s charter-It`s been ten year since the antif 21:35  |  Susanna/Shoshana 09/01/09
      59.   Why US is training PA 02:07  |  Truth 10/01/09
      60.   uannna and Nonsense 02:09  |  Truth 10/01/09
      61.   to Shoshana #58 02:34  |  zeev 10/01/09
      62.   gaza 03:08  |  azad 10/01/09
      63.   Mr cellophane 13:21  |  real vision 10/01/09
      64.   CJK/Mrs Regev losing it again #24 13:50  |  Roo 10/01/09
      65.   Re # 23- Rachel 13:54  |  Fair Deal 10/01/09
      66.   Answer to Rami 20:03  |  Rachel 10/01/09
      67.   I think you have it backwards. 21:15  |  BR 10/01/09
      68.   to S Awaad 21:19  |  real vision 10/01/09
      69.   to real vision #63 - 2nd try 22:03  |  zeev 10/01/09
      70.   to Norah #52 - 3rd try 22:04  |  zeev 10/01/09
      71.   to Akram Zekaria #29 (1) - 3rd try 22:06  |  zeev 10/01/09
      72.   to Robert #57 - 3rd try 08:27  |  zeev 11/01/09
      73.   to Shepherd #1 - 5th try 08:28  |  zeev 11/01/09
      74.   to Akram Zekaria #29 (2) 11:56  |  zeev 12/01/09
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