Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., January 21, 2009 Tevet 25, 5769 | | Israel Time: 17:59 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Joy of Giving Travel Week's End Anglo File
Comments:  11
Last update - 15:04 08/01/2009
IDF sources: Conditions not yet optimal for Gaza exit
By Uri Blau, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: israel, hamas, Israel news 

Senior Israel Defense Forces officers expressed doubt over whether military efforts alone could bring regime change in the Gaza Strip, and said the army is far from achieving optimal conditions in the Strip to implement an exit strategy.

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi has instructed the army to prepare for action in Gaza since March 2007, shortly after he entered the post. That month, military programs were authorized that were eventually put into action as Operation Cast Lead.


Advertisement
The meetings dealt with the situation Israel seeks to see in the Strip after military operations are complete. An official present said the optimal situation would include several elements: steep reduction in rocket fire; neutralization of terror infrastructure; weakening of Hamas' position and organization, as well as its removal from power; creation of a "deterrent balance"; and reducing public support for the militant movement. In addition, Israel should not be viewed as being responsible for the Palestinian population, but the role should go to a central Palestinian establishment created in Gaza, led by moderate, pragmatic officials.

The officials said the IDF understands "there is a discrepancy between our interests and the ability to implement these through the use of force alone."

Physically gaining control of the entire Strip or large portions of it, they said, will lead to Israel's taking responsibility for the area's civilian population, and Israel's international legitimacy would weaken.

Maj. Gen. Tal Russo, head of the General Staff's Operations Directorate, said, "The Israeli use of force is likely to improve combat against terror, but, alongside this, [it] usually leads to radicals' becoming strengthened. It's doubtful if it is possible to bring about regime change in the Gaza Strip solely by force."

"We are far from the ability to implement the optimal exit strategy from the Gaza Strip. This places a complicated dilemma before the government," he said, adding that the IDF should in any case prepare for the possibility of either a large-scale operation or a comprehensive security arrangement with Hamas.

Russo also added, according to the official, that "when we look at the expectations of the operation and the ultimate situation in terms of cost and benefits, the conclusion will be not to embark on an operation before we look at the conditions for exit."

The official said at the same meetings, IDF intelligence officials examined what they called the "crumbling" of central authority in the Palestinian territories, and the possibility that the Palestinian Authority could turn into an Islamist regime run by Hamas.

The intelligence officials appraised that another military operation could be called for should a terror attack be committed causing heavy casualties, or if Hamas' power grows to such an extent that it could "break" a lull in fighting.

They also examined scenarios in which Israel's legitimacy for continuing the operation could be compromised: if, for example, a comprehensive cease-fire were attained with the Palestinians, or an agreement reached between Hamas and Fatah (an unlikely scenario, in the army's estimation), or if the standing of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is so weakened that Israel is pressured from outside to restrain its use of force.

According to the intelligence officials, Abbas is viewed as a positive, moderate leader, one who stands behind the Israeli interest of achieving a lull in the fighting. However, they do not believe he is capable of forcibly maintaining control of the internal Palestinian political arena, and it is plausible that Hamas could use force to neutralize his authority.

They also said there is no outside actor, regional or international, that will take upon itself what they termed the Gaza "swamp," and certainly not by its own choice. The officials said an agreement with Hamas could improve prospects for a long-term lull in the fighting, but that reaching such an agreement would be inconsistent with both Israeli and international policies against negotiating with the militant group.


Related articles:
  • Abbas at UN, appeals for mutual Gaza cease-fire
  • ANALYSIS / Using aggressive tactics in Gaza to save soldiers' lives
  • ANALYSIS / Israel must double, triple, quadruple its medical aid to Gaza
  • Israel to establish 'humanitarian corridor' for Gaza Strip
  • Venezuelan President Chavez: Gaza operation is a Palestinian 'holocaust'
  • Al-Qaida No. 2 slams Obama for failing to stop IDF offensive in Gaza
  • French TV claims photos from 2005 showed damage from Israel's Gaza operation
  • Four of six IDF soldiers killed in Gaza were victims of friendly fire
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    A new America
    President Obama: U.S. is a friend of all nations, ready to lead again.
    Ignoring white flags
    Gazans claim some Palestinians were waving white flags when shot by IDF.
      1.   MAJOR LOSS 05:10  |  paul 08/01/09
      2.   Exit Strategy 06:22  |  Shimon Cleopas 08/01/09
      3.   HAMAS should be crashed completely. Shalit should be free! 15:19  |  Vittorio 08/01/09
      4.   Could Have, Should Have 15:59  |  Yaakov Sullivan 08/01/09
      5.   Hmm, where have we seen this before? 16:25  |  sh 08/01/09
      6.   HAMAS should be crashed completely #3 20:30  |  Antonio da Silva 08/01/09
      7.   Did someone say "regime change"?? 00:08  |  Silvienne 09/01/09
      8.   6 responses? 00:09  |  hollingsworth 09/01/09
      9.   Discrepancy 19:56  |  Barnie 09/01/09
      10.   800 deaths for reading this 20:00  |  Barnie 09/01/09
      11.   when olmert says victor it = loss 17:36  |  IDF 21/01/09
     Read & React
    The first day: President Obama to embrace role in meets on Iraq, economy
    Responses: 100
    Shai Golden: A strong, victorious Israel is far more likely to make peace
    Responses: 31
    IDF probes improper use of phosphorus shells in Gaza Strip
    Responses: 48
    Israeli Lebanon war film 'Waltz with Bashir' shown in Beirut
    Responses: 14
    Israeli human rights activists: Arrest Olmert, Livni, and Barak for war crimes
    Responses: 36


    More Headlines
    17:39 Obama tells Abbas he's committed to achieving Mideast peace
    17:48 High Court revokes ban on Arab parties from national elections
    15:52 Report: Belgian court petitioned to arrest Livni upon arrival in Brussels
    15:03 Defense official: Fresh Hamas strikes will be met with even greater force
    15:18 Ramon: Israel need not fear Obama's plan to talk to Iran
    15:03 Iran urges Obama to change U.S. foreign policy in Mideast
    06:53 ANALYSIS / Aside from Iraq, Obama's plans for the Mideast are still vague
    17:17 Hamas reasserts control in Gaza, rounds up 'collaborators'
    17:16 EU to pressure Israel to open Gaza borders to allow in aid
    04:11 IDF probes improper use of phosphorus shells in Gaza Strip
    07:06 ANALYSIS / Jordan's king is torn between U.S.-Egypt and Syria-Hamas axes
    15:16 Hamas: Israel must consider Shalit's fate after bombing Gaza
    12:22 Obama considering veteran troubleshooter George Mitchell as Mideast envoy
    12:29 10 men arrested on suspicion of sexually abusing Tel Aviv teen
    10:53 India, Israel closing weapons deals worth $600 million
    15:17 Olmert to Ban: Probe into Gaza war devastation must take rocket damage into account, too
    14:24 Court: Rightist march in Arab town can be held after election
    14:54 Home Front Command training volunteer corps for future emergencies
    12:13 Israeli film on Lebanon War 'Waltz with Bashir' shown in Beirut
    13:53 ADL: Venezuela and Bolivia sending message that they side with Hamas
    07:33 Jewish World / Voldemort's sidekick turns Jewish psychiatrist in film on Nazi era
    13:00 Israeli coffee company using leftover beans as energy source
    17:36 View from Ramallah / From Ni'lin to Tel Aviv, Israeli refuseniks confront the IDF
    Previous Editions
    Special Offers
    Advertisement
    Summer in Israel
    Israeli style - Tzofim Chetz V'Keshet 2009
    Blue And White Forever Israel Army T-shirts
    Wear with Proud Donate the Soldiers Kit
    You can make a direct IMPACT!
    on the life of an Israeli soldier
    State of Israel Bonds
    During this time of market volatility, Israel bonds can help.
    SURF RAMBAM
    Keep current about new-wave medical care, education and research.
    Summer Camp in Israel
    The best place for your children this summer
    Fattal Hotel Chain
    Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel.
    Eldan Rent a Car
    Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations
    Jewish Singles Personal Ads
    Find the love of your life on JDate.com
    Junkyard
    Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
    Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |
    Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel
    birthright Israel | Search engine marketing
    Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
    © Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved