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Last update - 13:06 06/01/2009 ANALYSIS / The unspoken goal of bringing down Hamas in Gaza By Amir Oren, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: israel, israel news, hamas  This morning the Israel Defense Forces operation in the Gaza Strip approaches a critical juncture: To be − deeper in, at a higher cost − or not to be. The operation in its current format has exhausted itself. There is no point in pursuing it. The choice now is between going forward, at a price Israeli society is understandably reluctant to pay, or stopping, completing the mission in place and undertaking a unilateral withdrawal without waiting for the false hope of an agreement without Hamas' participation. Additional achievements cannot be expected without further efforts that could prove too late and too great. Last night's blast, which killed three Israeli troops and wounded about 20 others, was a hint of what could happen if the ground operation is expanded. The IDF is advancing slowly and carefully in the northern Gaza Strip. Israelis, and especially those with loved ones risking their lives in battle, should be grateful to the entire chain of command for their caution. The commanders endanger themselves no less than their soldiers, as last night's events demonstrated. The troops' measured advance is aimed at giving them superiority in every engagement with Hamas. Israel knows that Hamas seeks the blood of IDF soldiers, Israeli civilians and Palestinians not a party to the conflict. The IDF seeks to minimize the damage to these three groups and maximize it among a fourth group − Hamas members. The operation is largely meeting its aims on that score, but it has still not achieved its goal. After one and a half weeks of fighting the operation is experiencing tension between the immediate goals and ultimate objectives. The immediate goals are destroying rocket launchers, killing fighters and arresting wanted men for interrogation and to swap for Gilad Shalit. The ultimate objectives are a lasting and stable cease-fire, and a long-term end to arms smuggling into Gaza. This tension includes the inherent differences among the three highest-ranking entities behind the operation: the political echelon, and within it the conflicts among the Olmert-Barak-Livni trio; Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi; and Southern Command head Yoav Galant. No subordinate rank is capable of providing the rank above it with spectacular results at a minimal effort ?(and above the cabinet is Israeli society as a whole?). We can pay little and get little, or pay a lot and get little, and perhaps − no guarantees − we can pay a lot and get a lot. As things stand now, Israel will find it hard to translate its military power into policy gains. As long as Hamas can fire into Be'er Sheva and north of the Israel Air Force base at Hatzor, the organization will not submit to Israel's cease-fire terms, despite the hits it has taken. Operation Cast Lead's table of contents currently has two chapters. The first was the air campaign. The second was the movement of ground forces. The IDF now faces two main military alternatives. The first is to step up the confrontation with Hamas in Gaza City and its environs. That will entail greater casualties among our soldiers, increase the hardships of the Palestinian population and lead to more calls from the international community to stop the fighting. The second option is to expand the theater of operations and strive for a target that has not yet been set, which has been concealed or even denied: to bring down the Hamas government. Southern Command is capable of achieving this goal but is not enthusiastic about it, lest the Jabalya refugee camp turn into Somalia. In this context the IDF is afraid of being too successful. In both cases it will take days before the cabinet that sent in the IDF is able to claim a lasting victory. In these circumstances, with the IDF attempting to maneuver between two prohibitions − against bringing down Hamas on the one hand, and reaching an agreement with it on the other − Israel is dependent on the mercy of Hamas to allow it to declare victory. For that reason Hamas must agree to a coexistence in Gaza − of the Hamas government, stripped of its rockets; the forces of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas along the Philadelphi Route ?(the two battalions trained in Jordan by the United States?); and perhaps also an inter-Arab or international force at the border crossings. Related articles: Three IDF soldiers killed, one critically wounded in Gaza blast ANALYSIS / The price of stubbornness over Gaza exit is dead soldiers ANALYSIS / Israel is on its way to reoccupying all of Gaza Israel strikes dozens of tunnels in southern Gaza Bradley Burston / Gaza War Diary III: If Mexico shelled Texas, like Hamas shells Israel PICTURE GALLERY / Gaza incursion sparks protests around world ANALYSIS / Will Gaza deal share fate of failed Lebanon accord? ANALYSIS / How much time is left for the IDF to operate in Gaza? Bookmark to del.icio.us   Fallen hero Relatives mourn Maj. Roey Rosner, 27, killed Wednesday by Gaza militants. On the northern front Hezbollah denies responsibility for two rockets fired at Israel from Lebanon.   1.   Hamas is a cause and causes cannot be killed 07:24  |  Natallie Durson 06/01/09   2.   All causes have a use by date Natallie 09:55  |  Peter Williams 06/01/09   3.   Ceasefire without lifting the blockade? 12:45  |  Manny Goldstein 06/01/09   4.   HAMAS-GAZANS` DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVT! GET THEM ALL OUT!!!!)) 12:47  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 06/01/09   5.   Natallie, it is much more simple than that 13:27  |  even steven 06/01/09   6.   down with hamas 13:38  |  dr mostrel daniel 06/01/09   7.   Hamas opted for co-existence 13:54  |  Jan Elshout 06/01/09   8.   secret goal 14:17  |  david 06/01/09   9.   Who Voted for Hamas? 15:48  |  Howard 06/01/09   10.   Israel does not want Hamas to go away!! 17:28  |  Nassem 06/01/09   11.   #1, IDF/IAF will defeat Hamas et al 19:43  |  Gary 06/01/09   12.   3 Manny - That Looks Like the Goal 20:04  |  Mark of Lewiston 06/01/09   13.   Retreatijng without complete success, will cost 20:37  |  Concerned Citizen 06/01/09   14.   #12 Not a very realistic one, Mark 04:01  |  Johnboy 07/01/09   15.   Water For Peace 05:51  |  Thomas A Nagy 09/01/09

Read & React Red Cross: Israel breaking int'l law, letting children starve in Gaza Responses: 120 Two Lebanon rockets hit North; Hezbollah denies involvment Responses: 69 Yossi Melman: Excellent intel on Gaza shows Israel learned from Lebanon errors Responses: 21 Yoav Stern: Rocket fire on North may be realization of Iran threat Responses: 25 Gideon Lichfield: So, why isn't Israel winning the PR war? Responses: 80 More Headlines 05:17 UN Security Council passes resolution on Gaza cease-fire 04:21 ANALYSIS / Egypt-Syria row hampering Gaza truce efforts 04:29 ANALYSIS / Israeli rejection of Gaza deal may topple Abbas 02:23 Report: Obama ready to talk to Hamas after taking office 02:48 Three IDF soldiers killed in fighting in Gaza Strip 02:24 'This country exists because of people like him' 04:46 ANALYSIS / Hamas seeks Gaza war of attrition ending in IDF pullout 04:06 European Jews to hold rallies supporting Israel's Gaza offensive 03:45 UN: IDF officers admitted Gaza school shelling was by mistake 18:20 Get up to the minute coverage of the warfare in Gaza directly to your email 03:56 Czech FM: Israel needs Gaza truce to curry European favor 03:51 Carter: Fighting in Gaza could renew peace talks 05:53 NATO chief: We provide forum, not forces, to Israel and Arabs 05:59 Palestinians: IDF first sends dogs into Gaza homes, then soldiers 05:40 Despite Gaza operation, elections likely to be held as scheduled 05:34 Research sheds light on Ottoman era slave-owning Jews in Jerusalem 23:11 WATCH: Olmert spokesman says Israel never sought war in Gaza 05:25 Northern businesses ready for more Katyusha attacks 21:49 Iran bans volunteer suicide bombers from traveling to Israel 03:02 IDF unveils Hamas battle map seized by paratroopers in Gaza 22:05 IDF Chief of Staff Ashkenazi tours Gaza battlefields 19:57 UN says halting aid to Gaza, citing danger to staff from IDF 20:35 WATCH: U.S. Senate voices strong support for Israel's Gaza battle against Hamas Previous Editions Select Day 08 jan 07 jan 06 jan 05 jan 04 jan 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec 26 dec

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