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Last update - 19:17 06/01/2009
'Iran pledged Hezbollah won't respond to Gaza op,' says top Lebanese MP
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Gaza, Israel, Hezbollah 

Lebanon's parliament majority leader Saad Hariri on Monday claimed that Hezbollah would not respond to Israel's devastating offensive against Hamas in Gaza.

Hariri said that Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told him that Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant organization, would not attack Israel from Lebanon.


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"What Jalili said greatly calms us," Hariri said.

The lawmaker's remarks came despite the fact that observers in both Lebanon and Israel are starting to believe some kind of escalation along the Lebanese border is likely if the military operation in Gaza continues.

It is far from clear what form this escalation might take. One possibility is relatively small-scale rocket launches, either by Lebanese groups affiliated with the cause of global jihad or by Palestinian groups in Lebanon, which generally coordinate their activities with Hezbollah.

Another option is an operation by Hezbollah itself, which would probably be broader in scope.

That Hezbollah has been increasing its forces' preparedness in recent weeks is no secret: The organization's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, announced it publicly the day Israel's operation in Gaza began, and Sheikh Nabil Kauk, the Hezbollah official in charge of south Lebanon, reiterated it Monday.

Lebanese analysts believe there is disagreement within Hezbollah: Some senior members favor restraint, while others charge that mere speeches in support of the Palestinians are insufficient, and must be backed up with attacks on Israel.

The prevailing view, however, is that if Hamas appears to be weakening, pressure on Hezbollah to intervene would intensify greatly. "Hezbollah cannot allow Hamas to lose this war," said Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, who is considered close to Nasrallah.

Israel also understands the pressure faced by Hezbollah to intervene. "Our eyes are also on events up north," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Monday. "We are ready, waiting and following all developments."

Nevertheless, Hezbollah also has some reasons to avoid attacking Israel  first and foremost fear of Israel's response. Israel has already announced that it would view any attack by Hezbollah as an attack by the Lebanese government, meaning that it would consider Lebanese government institutions fair game in any retaliatory strike.

Another reason is the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon, scheduled for May. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hezbollah, told Agence France-Presse over the weekend that she thinks Hezbollah will want to avoid antagonizing its political rivals at this time, as "they [Hezbollah] don't want to ruin the 'dialogue table,' which allows them to keep the issue of their weapons indefinitely unsolved.
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  1.   You love wars 06:54  |  I love Lebanon 06/01/09
  2.   Hezbollah isn`t defending their Palenstinian brothers? 07:06  |  An American 06/01/09
  3.   You love wars 07:29  |  I love Israel 06/01/09
  4.   Hez and Tehran Would Be Smart to Stay Out 07:35  |  Dav Lev 06/01/09
  5.   Israel would love an excuse to have another go at Hizbollah 07:36  |  Natallie Durson 06/01/09
  6.   to i love lebabnon 08:01  |  mourad 06/01/09
  7.   Arabs blame out 09:02  |  Take responsibility 06/01/09
  8.   damned if they do or dont 10:25  |  ron 06/01/09
  9.   Observers are starting to think? 10:33  |  HAL. 06/01/09
  10.   Destructive politics 12:14  |  Anne 06/01/09
  11.   #9 Hal YEEEEESSS! 12:43  |  Petra 06/01/09
  12.   and then what....Syria/Iran attacking from the other side? 14:38  |  Benjamina 06/01/09
  13.   Amazing Irony!!! 14:41  |  Pinoy 06/01/09
  14.   Haven`t you noticed, Petra? 14:53  |  Murray 06/01/09
  15.   It is funny 16:00  |  Palestinian 06/01/09
  16.   stop wars and accept peace 16:03  |  hezbolla supporter 06/01/09
  17.   to bad we dont have our migs yet 16:05  |  hezbollah 06/01/09
  18.   Hezbollah responding to Gaza Op. 17:30  |  Ezra 06/01/09
  19.   to "I Love Lebanon" 19:03  |  eyeman 06/01/09
  20.   If you don`t know the truth, then keep your mouth shut!!! 19:24  |  truth and democracy 06/01/09
  21.   you have no clue 21:04  |  BK 06/01/09
  22.   hizbily and iran know well not to fool around with.. 21:14  |  reuven 06/01/09
  23.   truth and democracy 21:14  |  jen 06/01/09
  24.   one solution, to make peace remotely possible 21:30  |  sam 06/01/09
  25.   Here`s the real reason, guys.... 03:51  |  Johnboy 07/01/09
  26.   hezbollah 19:36  |  delwar 08/01/09
  27.   I love lebanon 17:18  |  Samir Halabi 14/01/09
  28.   To Samir Halabi 02:06  |  Sand 13/02/09
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