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Last update - 21:02 05/01/2009
ANALYSIS / How much time is left for the IDF to operate in Gaza?
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: israel news, israel, gaza 

The eastern outskirts of Gaza City was where the Israel Defense Forces encountered the most serious resistance yet since the Gaza ground incursion began Saturday. Troops who raided the home of a Hamas man in the area Sunday discovered that the house served as cover for the entrance of no fewer than three underground tunnels, from which Hamas gunmen fled to nearby houses and fired.

In one tunnel, Hamas gunmen got into a close-range battle with a soldier from the Golani Brigade who got separated from the other troops. It appears the Palestinians tried to abduct the soldier by dragging him into the tunnel. He managed to get away and rejoin the other troops. That's the basis of the rumor Hamas spread Sunday, when it claimed to have kidnapped two soldiers.


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The rumor, which foreign television stations turned into a report, also leaked to the Israeli press and increased public fears for several hours. The IDF spokesman put off issuing a denial for several hours (during which Hamas spread additional wrong reports), reinforcing the notion that there was no reason to get dragged along by the enemy's media manipulations.

In the same area, a Golani soldier was killed and several others were wounded by mortar fire. For Gaza veterans, the tough battles were no surprise. Ali Muntar, a hilltop on Gaza City's eastern outskirts, has long been considered the gate through which Gaza's conquerors arrive.

In the meantime, it looks like the IDF plan is progressing as expected. The key question is how much time the army has left. Some General Staff members hoped the government would call off the ground incursion if an appropriate exit plan was developed in time. That turned out to be a fruitless expectation. It appears French President Nicolas Sarkozy's arrival will restart diplomacy.

At this point, Egypt is expected to play an important role, despite the tensions between Cairo and Hamas. Egypt wants to see Hamas bleed before it gets fully into the role of mediator. Cairo is now waiting for a formal request by the Arab League before it intervenes. On the other hand, Egypt observes what its population wants, and Egyptians - like people across the Arab world - are rooting for Hamas and holding protests against Israel.

It would be a mistake to see the war in Gaza as a rerun of the Second Lebanon War. The Israeli position looks better now because the IDF is better trained and more prepared, the risk Hamas poses to the home front is lower than that posed by Hezbollah, and perhaps most important, Hamas has something to lose. The most important goal from Hamas' perspective is maintaining its hold on Gaza, and the Israeli operation poses a serious risk to that. All the same, it's not safe to assume that Hamas will collapse under Israeli military pressure. Israel also faces the danger of high casualties or abductions.

And so the reserve call-up portends bad news. Israeli society has not changed its approach to soldiers' deaths after the Lebanon failure. Wars in Israel are sometimes redefined as failures after the death of the first reservist. An extended stay in the Gaza dunes, which are liable to turn into a quagmire, would bring that eventuality closer.

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      1.   anextern analisys 03:37  |  Cesare 05/01/09
      2.   Proof to not trust any Hamas reports or claims 03:43  |  Richard S 05/01/09
      3.   Richard S, Hamas has been consistent in its claims... 07:35  |  Michael Hess 05/01/09
      4.   Michael Hess, the great concern is to stop Hamas 08:05  |  Israeli citizen 05/01/09
      5.   The "plan" is it raise Barak standing in the polls 08:18  |  www.kibush.co.il 05/01/09
      6.   Houses as terror basis 08:19  |  Cashier 05/01/09
      7.   Even Wall Street Journal Critical - Link 08:24  |  Mark of Lewiston 05/01/09
      8.   Why is it that the "enlightened" world care about Hamas, an ... 08:39  |  Jehudah Ben-Israel 05/01/09
      9.   Destroy Hamas! 08:52  |  Jean Van Daem 05/01/09
      10.   To # 1,, why doubt Hamas. 08:53  |  Sam 05/01/09
      11.   For victory, all Hamas must do is survive. 08:55  |  Natallie Durson 05/01/09
      12.   yes michael hess, hamas has been consistent 09:02  |  dan 05/01/09
      13.   Michael Hess, Do you mean by consistency 09:09  |  Chris 05/01/09
      14.   Another Lebanon 09:10  |  Atoo 05/01/09
      15.   Here is the ANSWER 09:43  |  marat 05/01/09
      16.   #4, Jehuda Ben-Israel, no one cares about Hamas 09:50  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/01/09
      17.   #5 Mark of Lewiston - Wall Street Journal is NOT critical but ... 10:21  |  S 05/01/09
      18.   There should be no truce 10:58  |  Look at Hamas charte 05/01/09
      19.   #9 Hizballah is sitting quite still, Natalie 10:59  |  Beatrice 05/01/09
      20.   Ignore the biased media 11:01  |  Jed 05/01/09
      21.   Hamas should be tried for war crimes 11:02  |  Beatrice 05/01/09
      22.   Hamas consistent ? 11:03  |  Serge 05/01/09
      23.   Bad PR...... 11:10  |  Mike 05/01/09
      24.   It`s the same mess as Lebanon 2. 11:18  |  Michael 05/01/09
      25.   Better ask how much longer till diplomacy takes over. 11:23  |  Tzfonit 05/01/09
      26.   S - check out the NY Times 11:38  |  Johnboy 05/01/09
      27.   #21 - Do you think apples and pears are the same! 12:08  |  Martin Knopfman 05/01/09
      28.   To Jean Van Daem #8--- Dream On.. 12:18  |  Khater 05/01/09
      29.   fight in Gaza 12:22  |  Joe 05/01/09
      30.   Hamas should be toppled 12:39  |  tristan 05/01/09
      31.   2 Natalie and 21 Michael - Poorly informed 12:41  |  S Judah 05/01/09
      32.   IDF strategy seems to assume Arabs will run away. 12:43  |  Michael 05/01/09
      33.   Israel Got As Much Time As It needs 13:12  |  Baruch Gold 05/01/09
      34.   #25, Khater, no 13:12  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/01/09
      35.   As long as 13:16  |  Linda 05/01/09
      36.   What a load of rubbish 13:26  |  george 05/01/09
      37.   To Tristan # 29 --- Remember Last Time... 13:26  |  Khater 05/01/09
      38.   # 30 S Judah 14:13  |  Natallie Durson 05/01/09
      39.   Israel-Gaza 14:22  |  Betari 05/01/09
      40.   Phosphorous bombs 14:42  |  Reporter 05/01/09
      41.   Gaza 15:01  |  simon 05/01/09
      42.   Until The UN Can Impose A Cease-Fire 15:06  |  Jeff Northridge 05/01/09
      43.   25 Jboy, Hamas the heros hiding behind children, its a Dejavu 15:29  |  Simon 05/01/09
      44.   #37, Durson 15:50  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/01/09
      45.   Michael # 31 The 2nd Lebanon War 16:04  |  Jeff Northridge 05/01/09
      46.   Destroy Hamas?? 16:04  |  Yaakov Sullivan 05/01/09
      47.   PALESTINIAN DEATHS NO LONGER FRONT PAGE 16:35  |  Mark Leaman 05/01/09
      48.   Davis vs Goliath 16:48  |  Abby 05/01/09
      49.   No Wonder Why Hamas Commanders Are Dying 17:03  |  SUNDAY 05/01/09
      50.   to all supporters 17:14  |  hat 05/01/09
      51.   Please don`t stop now! 17:16  |  A supporter 05/01/09
      52.   Wall Street Journal Article 17:16  |  Robert 05/01/09
      53.   After all, civilians are the real loosers 17:17  |  Nassem 05/01/09
      54.   32 Baruch Gold , Re: Dismantling Hamas 17:31  |  Dutch 05/01/09
      55.   Israel has time, Hamas has eternity 17:41  |  Brian 05/01/09
      56.   Palestinians and Jews 17:47  |  Ridha Barhoumi 05/01/09
      57.   A TRUE LESSON INDEED!!! 18:27  |  SUNDAY 05/01/09
      58.   As long as it wants - Second Try 18:44  |  Mark Lincoln 05/01/09
      59.   A whole article about " How much time is left, etc" without 19:12  |  S 05/01/09
      60.   #44, Kohn to Natalie Durson... 19:29  |  Silvienne 05/01/09
      61.   martyrs or landowners 20:01  |  carlos 05/01/09
      62.   42 Jeff in Fantasy Land 20:06  |  Mark of Lewiston 05/01/09
      63.   How long in Gaza 20:08  |  David gershon 05/01/09
      64.   how much time 21:02  |  rm 05/01/09
      65.   How would Ha`aretz respond to Hamas`s bombs? 21:39  |  ARA 05/01/09
      66.   Answer: FOREVER. Ultimately we`ll retake Gaza forever. 21:42  |  Chaim 05/01/09
      67.   38 Natallie , you are so Naive a bit like Hamas. 23:21  |  S Judah 05/01/09
      68.   What The International Diplomatic Community Just Doesn`t Get Yet 23:21  |  Jeff Northridge 05/01/09
      69.   Israel has no exit strategy 23:22  |  Clickfool 05/01/09
      70.   Israel does not need an `Exit Strategy" 00:02  |  Mark Lincoln 06/01/09
      71.   This is good for Israel 01:08  |  Mammon the Donme 06/01/09
      72.   #56 Ridha Barhoumi 01:19  |  Robert 06/01/09
      73.   Why is clock ticking? 01:26  |  Pavel 06/01/09
      74.   Time left? 01:41  |  Cynic 06/01/09
      75.   Clickfool # 69 The Exit Strategy 01:45  |  Jeff Northridge 06/01/09
      76.   Mark of Lewiston #62 01:53  |  sami 06/01/09
      77.   sami#76-- I think you meant to say... 07:23  |  baruch 06/01/09
      78.   response - It`s the same mess as Lebanon 2. 07:34  |  Aryeah245 06/01/09
      79.   # 75 Jeff Northridge 07:40  |  Nick Ferriman 06/01/09
      80.   Tzfonit - Response 07:42  |  Aryeah245 06/01/09
      81.   For every rocket a ton or artillery shells and rockets upon Gaza 07:48  |  Aryeah245 06/01/09
      82.   response - Hamas should be toppled - Gazans too dumb 07:53  |  Aryeah245 06/01/09
      83.   Answer to #26Johnboy SIXTH TRY 08:52  |  S 06/01/09
      84.   Mike#32: Are you even REMOTELY PAYING ATTENTION... ? 09:04  |  Baruch 06/01/09
      85.   baruch 13:14  |  sami 06/01/09
     Read & React
    Bradley Burston / Gaza War Diary III: If Mexico shelled Texas, like Hamas shells Israel
    Responses: 143
    Three IDF soldiers killed, one critically wounded by friendly fire in Gaza
    Responses: 31
    At least 30 die in strike on Gaza school; IDF: Troops fired in self-defense
    Responses: 80
    ANALYSIS / Israel is on its way to reoccupying all of the Gaza Strip
    Responses: 30
    ANALYSIS / Price of stubborness over Gaza exit is dead Israeli soldiers
    Responses: 59


    More Headlines
    20:50 At least 30 Gazans killed in strike on UN school; IDF: Troops fired in self-defense
    20:06 Olmert to Haaretz: The sooner Israel can end its Gaza offensive, the better
    20:11 Five Israeli soldiers killed, as IDF closes in on Gaza cities
    19:22 'He entered Gaza with total determination,' says widow of slain IDF soldier
    21:36 French President Sarkozy: Deal on Gaza truce 'not far away'
    20:07 Hospitalized but defiant, Israeli soldiers eager to return to Gaza battle
    16:21 Gaza rocket hits Gedera, 30km from Tel Aviv; baby lightly hurt
    17:12 ANALYSIS / Price of stubborness over Gaza exit is dead soldiers
    14:37 ANALYSIS / Israel is on its way to reoccupying all of the Gaza Strip
    18:20 Get up to the minute coverage of the warfare in Gaza directly to your email
    21:21 Turkey-Israel ball game canned after pro-Gaza protesters storm court
    21:19 The view from Ramallah / An Intifada in its infancy?
    19:17 'Iran pledged Hezbollah won't respond to Gaza op,' says top Lebanese MP
    18:39 Jewish and Arab students clash on Gaza offensive
    13:06 ANALYSIS / The unspoken goal of bringing down Hamas in Gaza
    13:40 Israeli general: Never knew I was evacuating my wounded soldier son from Gaza
    08:58 The IDF's Golani Brigade: Always first on the scene at the front line
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