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Last update - 01:55 04/01/2009 Through the eyes of a squad leader By Zvi Bar'el How to define victory? The squad leader is bound to have a very clear answer. The chief of staff and the politician will probably begin to philosophize over it. They will all agree without difficulty, though, that one's definition of victory depends on the goal. So if one sets goals that are vague enough, such as "changing the security situation," everyone can claim victory. If the Qassams stop, then we will have won. And if we set terms for the opening of the Rafah crossing, then we will have also won. And if we restore our deterrence, we will have most certainly won. Generally speaking, wars are very convenient for making such definitions. But when the war ends, Gaza will no longer be ruled by a "terrorist organization" running the Strip, but by a government with status, which will set terms for any regional move Israel aspires to carry out. That's because Hamas stands to gain through war what it has failed to achieve through its sweeping victory in the Palestinian elections. Advertisement Hamas, as it turns out, has a single definition for victory. Like Hezbollah, Hamas knows that a few hundred rockets will not crush Israel, but rather serve as critically-needed leverage to establish its presence as a prominent and active decision-making force in the inter-Palestinian arena. This goes beyond Hamas' standing as the only Palestinian force engaged in a liberation struggle with the conqueror. It refers to the organization's success in reshuffling the Middle Eastern deck of cards. The deep rift - even conflict - between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria is Hamas' handiwork. It is a repeat of Hezbollah's successful efforts to drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Syria. Similarly to its role in Lebanon, Iran has turned into a significant force in the diplomatic battleground around Gaza. The international boycott of Hamas, the fruit of Israel's labor, is developing ever-widening cracks. A similar process occurred when Hezbollah made the boycott on Syria go away with its achievements in Lebanon. Already France is initiating plans for a cease-fire, and in the near future it will agree to talk to Hamas. The Turkish prime minister has already met with the head of Hamas' political department, Khaled Meshal, and with Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shalah. And although these meetings were public, Israel protested by sounding the traditional horn of condemnation. In a broken voice, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made a placatory speech last week in which he not only blamed Israel for the war, but also invited Hamas to a reconciliation with and even possible incorporation into the PLO. Abbas even hinted that he would put an end to peace talks with Israel if he is convinced that they are leading nowhere. This week, Abbas appeared to be the least relevant figure in this war. Instead of becoming the most senior Palestinian leader conducting talks with Israel to put an end to the hostilities, he turned himself into the leader of just one Palestinian faction, an "exiled leader" capable of nothing more than making compassionate speeches. Like Hezbollah, Hamas is not a popular organization among Arab regimes. These two entities are not unpopular because they represent radical Shi'ite Islam. It is because they are disrupting the traditional balance of power that allows Arab powers like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even Syria to set the rules for the rest of the region's countries. Moreover, they destroy the roles of inter-Arab organizations like the Arab League, and expose them to ridicule. They are constructing a new Middle Eastern order in which the organization is the state. Through a painful process wrought with intense stomach cramps and nausea, the Arab nations are gradually internalizing this reality. They are already aspiring for a stable regime in the territories, be it under Hamas or the Wizard of Oz for all they care, as long as the Palestinian issue stops haunting them with street protests in their cities. Israel, by contrast, has not yet fully grasped the shift. This war will surely clarify matters for Jerusalem, making it more evident that it is impossible to negotiate with Abbas while killing hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza. Gaza and the West Bank are two regions of one nation, under a split leadership whose two halves are at odds with one another. Hamas wants to consolidate this realization in Israel's mind through this war, and will continue the war even if it achieves a cease-fire and the crossings are reopened. The smuggling tunnels will be rebuilt. For Hamas, the definition of victory does not depend on the number of casualties or changing the security situation. The next stage for Hamas will be to use the war for political and internal leverage, because the organization has already achieved its objectives in terms of deterrence. At any given moment, all it takes is one Qassam to disrupt the entire order of things. Hamas is thinking like a regional power. Israel is still looking at things through the eyes of a squad leader. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Egypt-Syria rift The Gaza situation demands more than a truce. It demands pan-Arab reconciliation. No Talking to Hamas Livni rejects offer to contact Hamas via Russia for Gaza truce talks.   1.   Hamas is going to be destroyed 05:43  |  A Nice Fellow 04/01/09   2.   What`s the Alternative to Eternal War? 12:31  |  Charles 05/01/09   3.   Rejoinder to #2 13:57  |  MJ 05/01/09

Read & React Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff: How much time does the IDF have left in Gaza? Responses: 36 Sarkozy: Hamas to blame for suffering of Palestinians in Gaza Responses: 34 Amira Hass: Wounded Gaza family lay bleeding for 20 hours Responses: 43 'We lost our homes for nothing,' says reservist from former Gaza settlement Responses: 43 Amir Oren: What's happening in Gaza is neither war nor occupation Responses: 17 More Headlines 12:45 Egypt to demand Hamas accept immediate truce in Gaza 12:52 Barak on Gaza op: Israel is doing what any life-loving nation would do 12:15 IDF officer, 5 soldiers hurt as troops battle Hamas in Gaza 09:26 Get up to the minute coverage of the warfare in Gaza directly to your email 12:15 IDF shell kills Palestinian family of seven near Gaza City 14:08 Nearly 20 rockets hit south Israel after night of relative calm 10:28 'We lost our homes for nothing,' says reservist from former Gaza settlement 09:27 ANALYSIS / Will Gaza deal share fate of failed Lebanon accord? 12:43 Wounded Gaza family lay bleeding for 20 hours 14:09 Despite ruling, Israel prevents foreign journalists from entering Gaza 13:40 Court orders home of Jerusalem yeshiva terrorist sealed off 09:42 Israel seeks to isolate Hamas in cease-fire talks with Europe 14:14 Hamas official: We must lay foundation for a tomorrow without Zionists 10:38 ANALYSIS / How much time is left for the IDF to operate in Gaza? 09:59 Sarkozy: Hamas to blame for suffering of Palestinians in Gaza 09:26 IDF general warns of Hezbollah retaliation against North 04:29 Gaza war sparks tensions for Israeli Arab soccer team 05:54 Reservists apprehensive, excited as thousands report for duty 06:36 In the south, support for Gaza op is far from unanimous 01:32 Madoff victims selling memorabilia of disgraced financier on eBay Previous Editions Select Day 04 jan 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 22 dec

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