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IDF admits to overestimating Gaza rocket severity, but warns worst may be yet to come By Amos Harel and Ruth Sinai, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Gaza, Israel News, Israel  The threat that Hamas' ballistic capabilities pose to the people of the Negev is less serious than initially presumed and the residents of the targeted areas are not demonstrating signs of panic, according to an interim analysis by the Israel Defense Forces of the situation nearly a week after the launching of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip. The analysis, which the IDF compiled with the Defense Ministry, also said the authorities' ability to tend to the needs of the population has much improved compared to their performance in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Advertisement Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who toured the Negev yesterday with Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilani, said that Hamas' capabilities "cannot be compared" with those of Hezbollah. In six days of fighting, Hamas has fired some 350 rockets into Israel. In 2006, Kiryat Shmona and its immediate surroundings alone took 1,000 rockets. These figures show that IDF officers and defense experts overestimated Hamas' ballistic capabilities so far, which were said to allow the organization to launch up to 200 rockets every day while under fire from launcher-hunting Israel Air Force crafts. Of the 350 rockets that Hamas has fired since Saturday, at least 40 were Katyusha rockets with a range of 40 kilometers. In some cases, Hamas' rockets even reached 43 kilometers from the launch sites. Vilnai nonetheless added that should the IDF mount a ground invasion into the Strip, Hamas is expected to pick up the pace and take more risks in launching rockets. A marked improvement "The significant change since the last war is the level of commitment which the state feels toward its citizens," Vilnai said. "The State of Israel is functioning quite well in the south. The municipalities understand their responsibilities to their residents and the degree of coordination between the National Emergency Authority and the home Front Command and the various authorities is quite high." In what can be seen as proof of the improved performance under fire, the National Emergency Authority recently turned down a request by a charity that wanted to supply 400 meals to the people of Sderot. The nonprofit, the Rashi Fund, was answering a call for help which the municipality issued, but sought to receive the Authority's approval as per Vilnai's instructions on charity. In a move which would have been almost unthinkable in 2006, the authority informed the Rashi Fund that its help was unnecessary, and that the authorities would provide the donation. The authority was set up following the Winograd Committee of inquiry into the performance of decision-makers during the Second Lebanon War, and under Vilnai, the authority's leadership has made an effort to demonstrate that it is in control of the situation. The demand that all charity projects and municipality works go through the authority is presumably part of that effort. In preparing for the current round of hostilities, the authority's staff received guidance and counseling from the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee and other large charities, while exercising emergency scenarios. In carrying out its missions on the ground, the bodies that coordinate relief efforts for the people of the Negev with the authority rely on several hundreds of Home Front Command soldiers which the army has put at their disposal. Related articles: IDF recommends major, but brief Gaza ground offensive Livni: Gaza truce would give Hamas legitimacy IAF strike in Gaza kills senior Hamas political-military liaison Barrage of Gaza rockets strikes Ashkelon, Be'er Sheva, Ashdod Ari Shavit / Israelis who blame Israel are not helping Gazans Poll: Most Israelis support continuing Gaza military op Israel Harel / Like in Lebanon, Israel blinked first in Gaza Amira Hass / Thousands of Gazans near Rafah displaced by IAF bombing of tunnels Olmert: Israel has no interest in a prolonged war in Gaza Bookmark to del.icio.us   Crisis in question The Arab League slams Livni's remark 'there's no humanitarian crisis in Gaza' Acts of Terror In their waning days in power, Bush and Rice work to try organize a truce.   1.   A missile is a missile is a missile 05:03  |  Avrum 02/01/09   2.   Overestimating Rocket severity? 05:21  |  ZevP 02/01/09   3.   harel upset 05:29  |  Arie 02/01/09   4.   Better to over estimate 06:12  |  howiej 02/01/09   5.   IDF underestimation of rocket danger from Gaza. Does this mean... 06:21  |  Maureen Ann 02/01/09   6.   As Alice said `curiouser and curiouser` 06:28  |  Mark Lincoln 02/01/09   7.   Hamas was on its way to acquiring far more deadly weapons 07:10  |  Oracle 02/01/09   8.   hamas needs too be obliterated off he face of the earth 08:51  |  j 02/01/09   9.   For Mark Lincoln # 6 10:05  |  Clickfool 02/01/09   10.   #5 10:24  |  Rab Burns 02/01/09   11.   No Maureene, not if rockets are falling in Beersheva 10:32  |  Terry 02/01/09   12.   They didn`t underestimate anything. 10:36  |  Shimon List 02/01/09   13.   Clickfool look at the reality 11:21  |  British Academic 02/01/09   14.   If Cast Lead were as bad a Lebanon 2006, it would still succeed. 17:13  |  Fortuna Benmayor 02/01/09   15.   `Tis Testament to the Effectiveness of IAF 22:43  |  Solon 02/01/09   16.   Cast Lead is already a big success. 00:55  |  Keep going Israel 03/01/09   17.   Why worry about dying??? 01:25  |  Mark 03/01/09

Read & React Bush: Hamas attacks on Israel are an 'act of terror' Responses: 71 Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff: Now IDF is getting personal with Hamas Responses: 76 Yossi Sarid: If you (or I) were Palestinian Responses: 128 Anshel Pfeffer: Right and Left, Diaspora Jews more critical of Israel than ever Responses: 80 Bradley Burston: To win in Gaza, Israel only has to survive Responses: 50 More Headlines 01:36 Israel launches a ground operation in the Gaza Strip 01:36 WATCH: Israeli troops launch ground incursion in Gaza Strip 22:23 Barak: Gaza invasion won't be short, and it won't be easy 22:39 Hamas: Gaza will become graveyard for Israeli troops 00:03 Israel okays call-up of tens of thousands of IDF reservists 00:27 Hezbollah urges Hamas to 'kill as many Israeli soldiers as they can' during Gaza op 22:41 EU presidency: Israel ground op in Gaza 'defensive not offensive' 00:53 Tens of thousands rally across Europe against Israel's Gaza offensive 00:56 Thousands rally in Tel Aviv for and against Israel's Gaza op 01:17 UN Security Council to hold emergency session on Israel's Gaza operation 20:14 Netivot home collapses as Hamas intensifies rocket fire from Gaza 13:32 ANALYSIS / Are air strikes enough, or is a ground op needed in Gaza? 17:47 Arab League slams Livni remark 'there's no humanitarian crisis in Gaza' 14:04 Bush calls Hamas attacks 'acts of terror', says working on truce 10:41 ANALYSIS / Israel must prepare to turn its military might from Gaza to Iran 09:42 UN chief wants international monitors for Gaza cease-fire 18:59 Gaza 2009 - To win, all Israel has to do is survive 18:45 Top Iran official holds talks with Syria on Gaza violence Previous Editions Select Day 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 22 dec 21 dec

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