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The original plan isn't the only one By Yonathan Lerner Tags: Israel, Gaza, Israel News  Until yesterday, the fourth day of the attacks on Gaza, it looked like an ongoing war of attrition. Let's hope that it's not, but at least according to what the media report, there is no sign of an attempt to stop the exchanges of fire by other means. It is therefore possible to expect the final results of the operation to differ drastically from what the leaders planned when they began. I experienced something similar at the beginning of the year, when I organized two simulations at the Institute for National Security Studies with my friend Shlomo Brom, a former director of the Israel Defense Forces General Staff strategic planning division. Both simulations examined the issue of a halt to rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, and in both, Israeli governments had difficulty reaching the goals they had set at the beginning. Some of the situations that developed resemble the current plight. The simulations led Brom and I to derive several conclusions regarding an attack on Gaza and the culture of decision-making under fire. The finding regarding Gaza is almost common knowledge: If the Israeli government is not willing to talk with Hamas, there is no choice but an extensive ground operation in the Strip to put a halt to the rocket fire and allow for the possible entry of a multinational observer force. Advertisement The findings regarding our decision-making culture are far more interesting. Why is it that even in a simulation, in which the various roles are played by different people, Israeli governments are unable to reach their goals? (In one instance, the entire Strip was reoccupied, even though the original plan was intended to prevent the need for that.) In our judgment, there were several reasons for this, which we consider relevant to every process of decision-making under fire: 1. Overvaluing the original plan of action, to the point of practically sanctifying it. The original plan was accepted after a relatively long process of analysis and discussion, and once it was finalized, not only did it become the "right" plan, but fulfilling it became an objective in its own right. 2. Failure to understand the enemy. No special effort was made to understand the root of Hamas activity. Under the pressure of unfolding events, its actions and/or messages were viewed the way they are commonly understood today. There was no examination of possible changes in motive or capability as a result of the new situation that Israel created. 3. The absence of a strategy for the cessation of hostilities, as distinct from an exit strategy. The "what if" questions were left for the end of the process - that is, the completion of the plan. The original plan did not examine the possibility of ending the hostilities in earlier stages, and in practice stopping before the completion of the original plan was considered a failure. Further analysis of the reasons for Israel's failure to reach its goals in the simulations yields a distinction between the first two reasons and the third. Sticking to the original plan and failing to provide an in-depth analysis of the enemy are largely the outcome of the dynamics of the decision-making process. But that's not the case regarding the absence of a strategy for ending hostilities. That possibility must be discussed during all planning stages, so it is necessary to make sure that all the organizations involved in the planning add this to their doctrines and procedures. It would be fitting to create the plans in a modular fashion and plan for the most suitable way to cease hostilities at the end of each stage, while examining the advantages and disadvantages of such a move. Bringing a cessation strategy into the planning and discussion could also make it more likely that Israel will be able to overcome the other two reasons for failure, especially the tendency to adhere too closely to the original plan. When the possibility of ending hostilities is clear from the outset, the chances are greater that this will be discussed even as the fighting is underway and that Israel would weigh the benefits of ending hostilities as opposed to either completing the original plan or winding up somewhere we don't want to be. Although we reached these conclusions a year ago, it is still not clear whether these findings have been internalized or if we currently have a cessation strategy. I personally have no doubt that if the prime minister and top cabinet ministers had led such a simulation themselves this year, they would make sure that these findings, not just those of the Winograd Committee on the Second Lebanon War, were implemented in real time. The writer is a former head of the IDF General Staff strategic planning department and a former Israel Air Force intelligence official. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Israelis targeted abroad Gunman opens fire on Israelis working at shopping mall in Denmark. Iran silences dissent Newspaper forcibly shut down after article blaming Hamas for Gaza violence.

Read & React Gideon Levy: Are Israel's pilots callous and blind to Gaza's suffering? Responses: 296 Iran Jews stage pro-Palestinian rally near UN offices in Tehran Responses: 118 Israel decides to push on with Gaza op until 'all goals reached' Responses: 65 Gaza rocket strikes school in Be'er Sheva Responses: 86 ANALYSIS / Hamas winning battle of public opinion in Arab world Responses: 45 ANALYSIS / Rivalry among Israel's leaders at root of row on Gaza cease-fire Responses: 28 More Headlines 23:32 IAF bombs Gaza mosque being used as weapons storehouse 23:51 Haniyeh: Palestinian victory in Gaza is near 23:18 Israel decides to push on with Gaza op until 'all goals reached' 13:27 Get up to the minute coverage of the warfare in Gaza directly to your email 23:16 4 rockets hit south as 'special situation' status extended to 40 kilometers from Gaza border 00:26 U.S. counterterror expert: Hamas has adopted Hezbollah-like tactics in Gaza 20:39 Gunman opens fire on Israelis working at mall in Denmark 21:05 WATCH: YouTube pulls some IDF videos showing Gaza assault 19:51 IN PICTURES / Israel battles Hamas in Gaza: Day five 18:56 GIDEON LEVY / The IAF, bullies of the clear blue skies 19:15 White House: Hamas must cease rocket fire as first step to truce 22:34 Livni: We will not allow thugs to rule the Middle East 18:26 Report: Iranian newspaper closed over article sympathetic to Israel 19:23 JEWISH WORLD / Pro-Israel camp would be wise to heed Muslim cries for peace 12:05 ANALYSIS / Rivalry among Israel's leaders at root of row on Gaza cease-fire 16:55 Protests abound at T.A. and Haifa Universities; Be'er Sheva students flee Gaza rockets in droves 19:14 Shin Bet: Hamas has been hit by IAF's Gaza offensive like never before 21:02 Turkey, Syria call on Islamic nations to pressure Israel to end Gaza offensive 09:26 ANALYSIS / Hamas racks up its first diplomatic victory in Gaza campaign Previous Editions Select Day 31 dec 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 22 dec 21 dec 19 dec 18 dec

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