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Last update - 21:17 30/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Hamas is hoping for an IDF ground operation in Gaza
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel, Israel News, Hamas 

Three days into Operation Cast Lead, Israel is proposing a diplomatic exit. A ground operation likely looms in an effort to increase the pressure on Hamas. At the same time, however, others argue that the air force is close to exhausting its target bank, so if Hamas can be brought to accept a cease-fire on terms convenient to Israel in the near future it would be better to do so.

Hamas intensified its rocket and mortar fire at Israel Monday. It is starting to recover from the initial shock of the assault, and the bad weather is helping to protect its launching crews from Israeli aircraft.

By 8 P.M., Hamas had fired more than 80 rockets and mortars at Israel, including a Grad Katyusha strike on Ashkelon that killed an Israeli construction worker and wounded 10 others. At 9:30 P.M., a Katyusha hit Ashdod, seriously wounding another two civilians . The Home Front Command says some of the civilian casualties of the last few days could have been prevented had people obeyed its orders and entered shelters when they heard the warning sirens.
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Israel has thus far refused to officially discuss a cease-fire, but in practice it is conducting an indirect and hesitant dialogue with Hamas. As of yet, however, there is no official mediator.

Khaled Meshal, the Damascus-based head of Hamas' political bureau, has been calling for a cease-fire for two days now. However, communications with the organization's leadership in Gaza are hampered because all its leaders have gone underground for fear of Israeli assassination attempts, while Israel's air strikes have disrupted the Strip's communications networks. Paradoxically, the same measures that have hampered Hamas' military response are also impeding efforts to end the fighting.

Israel will insist that any truce include a complete, long-term halt to the rocket fire from Gaza. In exchange, it will apparently agree to reopen the border crossings at some point, though no final decisions have been made. Some ministers want to continue the military operation, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Gabi Ashkenazi, are more cautious.

The diplomatic clock is ticking relatively slowly because both Europe and the United States are all but closed for Christmas and New Year's Day. Meshal has been trying to get the Arab League and Senegal, which holds the rotating chairmanship of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, to push for a cease-fire. So far, international criticism of Israel has been relatively muted despite the many Palestinian casualties. Even in the Arab world, not everyone is crying over Hamas' losses.

The operation's goals, as defined by the cabinet, are "creating a different long-term security situation in the south, while bolstering Israel's deterrence." The IDF does not interpret this to mean a complete end to the rocket fire, as it considers this impossible. Rather, its goal is to eliminate Hamas' desire to attack Israel. The bombing campaign has so far dealt a severe blow to Hamas.

However, ground forces are already in place for the next phase. The Gazan mud will make it harder for tanks and armored personnel carriers to maneuver, and Hamas has clearly been preparing its defense for months. Thus any ground operation will entail many casualties, which is one of the government's considerations in deciding how the operation should proceed.

On July 12, 2006, hours after the Second Lebanon War began, Barak called Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and warned: "It's very important to define how and when you'll end [the war], because the more time goes by, the greater the potential for complications." That is no less true today.

As for the Palestinians, they plan to declare victory regardless of what happens. If the IDF withdraws rapidly, without a ground operation and without having seriously reduced the rocket fire, Hamas will boast that it survived and Israel blinked first.

But Hamas officials and analysts said Monday that the organization would actually like Israel to launch a ground operation; it hopes this would let it inflict such heavy losses on Israeli tanks and infantry that Israel would flee with its tail between its legs.

Just as the Second Lebanon War did, the current war will have far-reaching consequences for the balance of forces in the Middle East. First, it has brought the conflict between Hamas and Egypt into the open, which could influence domestic developments in Egypt. To some degree, it has also reignited the conflict between Arab moderates, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the extremists, led by non-Arab Iran. In Lebanon, it is already clear which side won. In Gaza, we will learn the answer in the coming days or weeks.

Related articles:
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  • France, Britain look to impose cease-fire in bid to halt Gaza operation
  • UN official says Israel responsible for breaking truce with Gaza
  • Uncertainty and bombing keep Gazans awake and fearful of who will be next
  • Amos Oz: Hamas responsible for outbreak of Gaza violence
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  • No rest for the shell-shocked in Ashkelon shelters
  • Chicago synagogue firebombed; police probe possible link to Gaza violence
  • ANALYSIS / Israel's operation in Gaza is entering its problematic phase
  • IN PICTURES / Firestorm over Gaza
  • WATCH: Israel's attack on Gaza from the missiles' viewpoint
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      1.   No Ground Operation is necessary 03:06  |  Ron 30/12/08
      2.   Hamas Crap 03:22  |  Brod 30/12/08
      3.   Hamas Hoping for ground Ops 03:28  |  Gary 30/12/08
      4.   A remarkable statement 03:46  |  Colin Wright 30/12/08
      5.   Re Gary 04:04  |  Steve J 30/12/08
      6.   Hamas` Hopes For Saving Face 04:20  |  Lavi 30/12/08
      7.   More retoric from poor hamas 05:49  |  Big Sur in Israel 30/12/08
      8.   Steve J 05:49  |  Rambo 30/12/08
      9.   Let Fatah rule Gaza. 05:51  |  Andy 30/12/08
      10.   Don`t Take the Bait! 05:59  |  Born In The USA 30/12/08
      11.   We`ve already endured "heavy losses", needless ground operation 05:59  |  Smadar 30/12/08
      12.   Bombing is enough 06:03  |  Ken 30/12/08
      13.   do not make bushs error...in baghdad. 06:24  |  zalmen 30/12/08
      14.   THIS REPORT IS NO GOOD 06:39  |  YUSEF 30/12/08
      15.   Now is the time to call a halt. 06:54  |  Tzfonit 30/12/08
      16.   hamaSS 07:06  |  ricky 30/12/08
      17.   # 4 Colin 07:07  |  Real American 30/12/08
      18.   ground operation required 07:15  |  Ran 30/12/08
      19.   Let`s hope Israel wants one too 07:29  |  Mushma Oule 30/12/08
      20.   Invade 07:33  |  Daniel Donaly 30/12/08
      21.   Be Strong Israel 07:36  |  a swizzle 30/12/08
      22.   different values,They love to Kill 07:43  |  Call a halt 30/12/08
      23.   TERRORISM ACCORDING TO ISREAL 07:46  |  Bob Ipoh 30/12/08
      24.   #4, Colin Wright, supporting suicide terror 07:50  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/12/08
      25.   Egypt Will Reoccupy Gaza 08:01  |  Change Is Here 30/12/08
      26.   From Islamic person 08:11  |  Mohsein 30/12/08
      27.   Israel can start a war at will, can`t stop it at will 08:11  |  Pablo B 30/12/08
      28.   Any fool can shoot fish in a barrel but the 08:12  |  lydia 30/12/08
      29.   Fatah, Egypt and Saudi Arabia 08:24  |  Lee 30/12/08
      30.   Re: Brod 08:26  |  Joseph 30/12/08
      31.   Here, we should listen to Feiglin of Likud with some restraint 08:28  |  Honesty 30/12/08
      32.   You can try but Hamas will not 08:30  |  Suspisicious 30/12/08
      33.   DELETED BY MODERATOR 08:34  |  The Ghost of H. Rick 30/12/08
      34.   Human shields are ready : Hamas is hoping for an IDF ground ... 08:45  |  Jean Van Daem 30/12/08
      35.   To # 20 Human shields or chickens 09:01  |  Refugee 30/12/08
      36.   Ground Troops Must Go In !!!! 09:01  |  Steve 30/12/08
      37.   Now is the best time to drain the swamp 09:15  |  Gregor 30/12/08
      38.   Does IDF have low self esteem? 09:20  |  Helud 30/12/08
      39.   Ground op 09:24  |  Crescent 30/12/08
      40.   A fair analysis 09:26  |  Chris Linthwaite 30/12/08
      41.   It is illusionary to believe Hamas has been weakened yet! 09:30  |  Kris Lazar 30/12/08
      42.   Reduce IDF casualties and humiliate Hamas 09:34  |  Mark Leaman 30/12/08
      43.   Agree with Ken #12, continued bombing 09:36  |  Mark 30/12/08
      44.   Ground Offensive 09:40  |  Canadian 30/12/08
      45.   HAMAS WILL BE READY ANYTIME 09:43  |  indrajaya 30/12/08
      46.   DON`T SEND IN TROOPS! They don`t fight fair! 09:54  |  Ken 30/12/08
      47.   Big Sur - I Wonder 10:03  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/12/08
      48.   Ground operation 10:04  |  George 30/12/08
      49.   Hamas is hoping to slaughter Israeli`s 10:04  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/12/08
      50.   Once you go into Gaza, what then? 10:06  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      51.   Smadar - Gotta Disagree 10:14  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/12/08
      52.   The REAL problem is Egypt... 10:18  |  Jimmy 30/12/08
      53.   No Cease Fire untill Hamas Destroyed Completley 10:18  |  Louis de Funest 30/12/08
      54.   But, Mark # 37 10:22  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      55.   #4 collin wright the POT calls, Again. 10:29  |  CK Tan 30/12/08
      56.   Tzfonit - Return to Status Quo Ante? 10:32  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/12/08
      57.   to smadar 11 from Toronto/untrue 10:34  |  Tina 30/12/08
      58.   Hamas is not a logical entity 10:38  |  Terry Traub 30/12/08
      59.   Drones can be more safe and effective 10:38  |  Sy 30/12/08
      60.   To indrajaya @ 39 - Of course Hamas will be ready.... 10:42  |  Natasha 30/12/08
      61.   Ron you are wrong 10:45  |  Truth 30/12/08
      62.   Two words - HUMAN SHIELDS 10:55  |  CK Tan 30/12/08
      63.   clickfool - your ANSWER??? 11:11  |  CK Tan 30/12/08
      64.   Smart 11:16  |  Dani 30/12/08
      65.   duh! 11:25  |  Zaf 30/12/08
      66.   For Terry Traub # 44 11:36  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      67.   Why did and does Hamas continue to fire rockets .. 11:37  |  redbourn 30/12/08
      68.   to 44 11:38  |  Tina 30/12/08
      69.   brod 11:42  |  A.M. 30/12/08
      70.   Big Sur 11:50  |  A.M. 30/12/08
      71.   Doubt It 11:52  |  Larry 30/12/08
      72.   #11, Smadar, you live in the clouds 12:06  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/12/08
      73.   Hamas` hopes are in vain 12:07  |  Michael 30/12/08
      74.   For CK Tan (if the Moderator will allow me) # 53 12:07  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      75.   Of course they are 12:10  |  sharon 30/12/08
      76.   Clickfool#60 12:11  |  Ehud 30/12/08
      77.   For Clickfool 12:16  |  Zimbabwe is starving 30/12/08
      78.   Helud 12:18  |  sharon 30/12/08
      79.   #50 Mark of Lewiston After this Round 12:18  |  Tzfonit 30/12/08
      80.   hamas 12:24  |  Tony Weston 30/12/08
      81.   THEY WILL GET IT BUT....FIRST 12:27  |  Robert 30/12/08
      82.   There is no way that Israel will commit a "genocide"..... 12:33  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/12/08
      83.   #73, fool, cut the nonsense 12:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/12/08
      84.   A `Humanirtarian Ship` has been stopped from entering Gaza 12:50  |  Honesty 30/12/08
      85.   The Real Problem IS Egypt 12:50  |  Nadia 30/12/08
      86.   Clickfool (#65) Am I to blame you get only HALF the News? 12:51  |  Gil 30/12/08
      87.   The second ridiculous war.. 12:59  |  Fritz T. 30/12/08
      88.   why 13:03  |  brunhild 30/12/08
      89.   IDF ground op. 13:04  |  jacquueline yaffe 30/12/08
      90.   Israel should put Hamas and Gaza on notice 13:12  |  Nechama 30/12/08
      91.   #84 Gil of Haifa 13:14  |  Chris Linthwaite 30/12/08
      92.   to 82 13:22  |  cesare 30/12/08
      93.   Cipora windmills with words # 83 13:28  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      94.   wow 13:33  |  towwoo 30/12/08
      95.   For Gil # 86 13:37  |  Clickfool 30/12/08
      96.   Clickfool (#73) Stop Your Nonsense 13:46  |  Gil 30/12/08
      97.   Peace Anthem 13:50  |  JPM 30/12/08
      98.   Nonsense A Ground Offensive is a cake Walk 13:58  |  Baruch Gold 30/12/08
      99.   NO AMERICAN SUPPORT 14:03  |  Baba 30/12/08
      100.   Chris Linthwaite (#91) Why should I say it? Let 14:03  |  Gil 30/12/08
      101.   Larry 14:05  |  Peter Williams 30/12/08
      102.   @Swiss Dino 14:10  |  Ralph 30/12/08
      103.   CJK 14:11  |  guido 30/12/08
      104.   Clickfool (#95) What Hamas does with the aid entering Gaza 14:17  |  Gil 30/12/08
      105.   Clickfool (#95) What Hamas does with the aid entering Gaza 14:18  |  Gil 30/12/08
      106.   an abomination before Him 14:25  |  Matt 30/12/08
      107.   Clickfool # 93 No Spin 15:20  |  Jeff Northridge 30/12/08
      108.   Analysis 17:52  |  leonard 30/12/08
      109.   Really Honesty? 17:54  |  Jim 30/12/08
      110.   re 50 Clickfool is a cliche 18:46  |  alan the real one 30/12/08
      111.   Ground zero 18:58  |  Observer 30/12/08
      112.   Ground Invasion? 18:59  |  Douglas Fireman 30/12/08
      113.   baruch gold is right 19:02  |  michael 30/12/08
      114.   hamas is also hoping to get their brothers back;get them out of 19:27  |  glenna 30/12/08
      115.   # 90 : theoretically a good idea, except that... 19:30  |  tristan 30/12/08
      116.   Results in Gaza War 19:32  |  Jack 30/12/08
      117.   Proportionate 19:37  |  John Grainer 30/12/08
      118.   NO NEED FOR GROUND OPERATION 19:41  |  Avrum 30/12/08
      119.   #107 - Jeff Northbridge - nice work 19:53  |  Adrian de Klerk 30/12/08
      120.   Do you even watch the news. 20:10  |  Astounded 30/12/08
      121.   Hamas` charter 20:14  |  jacob t chachkes 30/12/08
      122.   Who wants peace? 20:59  |  Greg 30/12/08
      123.   Abroad growing up the anti Israel pahtos 21:00  |  Arturo 30/12/08
      124.   #38 Helud in Shredot 21:02  |  John Allen 30/12/08
      125.   #66 Clickfool, you still have not learned anything.... 21:23  |  John Allen 30/12/08
      126.   #51 Mark of Lewiston,#57 Tina of Spain, # 72 Cipora of Cyberspace 21:23  |  Smadar 30/12/08
      127.   Using Innocent Civillians.... 21:30  |  SUNDAY 30/12/08
      128.   con`t Post 2 for Mark, Tina & Cipora 21:32  |  Smadar 30/12/08
      129.   Astounded & "the media" 21:40  |  Gray 30/12/08
      130.   Hamas wants Palestinian children to die 21:40  |  Murray of Montreal 30/12/08
      131.   You keep making enemies faster than you can kill them. 21:46  |  Samuel L Kent 30/12/08
      132.   Since Barak is in charge the likelyhood of a ground war is near 0 21:51  |  Avi 30/12/08
      133.   Question for my Cousin Yosef....#14... 22:04  |  Fred 30/12/08
      134.   #12 BLA BLA BLA..... 22:09  |  Bruni 30/12/08
      135.   124 Smadar - More Agreement than Not 22:16  |  Mark of Lewiston 30/12/08
      136.   hamas 22:33  |  mark 30/12/08
      137.   hamas 22:45  |  david 30/12/08
      138.   another balagan 22:50  |  Paul Freedman 30/12/08
      139.   # 107 Jeff Northridge: best explanation, thanks 22:54  |  Darth Zaider (Ed) 30/12/08
      140.   #45 Indrajaya 23:08  |  Moshe 30/12/08
      141.   gaza war 23:11  |  mark 30/12/08
      142.   Expect one more thunderous surprise from the IDF. 23:11  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/12/08
      143.   #103, GUIDO 23:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/12/08
      144.   107+119 not so nice at all: Israel controls the air and sea of 23:39  |  Jew- and Bookburner 30/12/08
      145.   Baruch Gold. A cake walk eh? 23:57  |  Palestinian Brit 30/12/08
      146.   A.M. #69 00:14  |  Brod 31/12/08
      147.   MR HAREL... 00:21  |  ANDY 31/12/08
      148.   Middle East Crisis is manufactured by the Iranian govt & stooges 00:27  |  albie 31/12/08
      149.   #45, hamas may be "ready" 00:35  |  Gary 31/12/08
      150.   Astounded & "the media" *******4th TRY***** 00:38  |  Gray 31/12/08
      151.   terror xmas 01:03  |  alex 31/12/08
      152.   Mark of Lewiston - Return to Status Quo Ante? 01:05  |  Mark Lincoln 31/12/08
      153.   Hamas is looking for the easy way 01:28  |  Shoshana Thomasson 31/12/08
      154.   Jew- and Bookburner # 135 Burned Any Law Books Lately? 01:43  |  Jeff Northridge 31/12/08
      155.   Ground operation i GAZA 02:26  |  Andersen 31/12/08
      156.   Gaza 04:51  |  Carson Bridges 31/12/08
      157.   Why Hamas Launches Rockets 05:11  |  Gray 31/12/08
      158.   Holocaust should not come into this horror 06:43  |  JewGirl 31/12/08
      159.   you are blind 10:48  |  Khaled 31/12/08
      160.   #71 clickfool now CHUCKS his FAKE laws UNDER the BUS 11:39  |  CK Tan 31/12/08
      161.   #128 & #148 Ok, I`ll Bite 15:03  |  Astounded 31/12/08
      162.   Astounded; Thanks for the Bite (Re: Your Question 18:53  |  Gray 31/12/08
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