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The way out of Gaza By Akiva Eldar Tags: Akiva Eldar, hamas, gaza  Click here for more articles by Akiva Eldar Let's leave aside for a moment, despite the difficulty in doing so, the ethical aspect of bombing residential neighborhoods. Political accounts between the ruling and opposition parties, both of which voted for bombing Gaza, can be postponed until February 10. Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak proved to the world that they are nobody's fools. Even Haim Oron showed that Meretz is not a bunch of wimps. And what now? Palestinians and Israelis must die until both sides stop shooting and sign a second cease-fire? Advertisement In an interview with Haaretz during the first week of the Second Lebanon War, Maj. Gen. (res.) Uri Saguy cautioned against illusions of being able to determine the course of fighting from the air according to the combat school of former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Dan Halutz. Saguy predicted a fiasco like the 1996 Qana massacre in Lebanon during Operation Grapes of Wrath, which resulted in 106 dead civilians. Saguy, formerly the head of Military Intelligence, warned in July 2006 that "in a few days the world will forget that everything began with a Hezbollah attack and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. What will remain in the collective consciousness is that Israel is striking at civilians of a neighboring country." Still, the Qana disaster of 2006, which killed 56 civilians, brought international pressure on Israel and disrupted the prosecution of the war. The tremendous population density in the Gaza Strip does not allow a "surgical operation" over an extended period that would minimize damage to civilian populations. The difficult images from the Strip will soon replace those of the damage inflicted by Qassam rockets in the western Negev. The scale of losses, which works in "favor" of the Palestinians, will return Israel to the role of Goliath. The uncensored images broadcast by Al Jazeera to hundreds of millions of homes in the Arab world do not work to the benefit of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was photographed several days ago speaking with Livni. A single Qana-like incident would be enough to make the masses of refugees congregate at the Rafah crossing and sabotage the unwritten agreement between Israel and Egypt against Hamas. Passing the buck to Cairo is liable to have wide-ranging regional implications that do not serve Israel's interest. Saguy is one of the only warrior-commentators who held out against advocating a ground invasion of Lebanon. Instead, he called for an immediate "political exit" anchored in long-term agreements, preferably with Syria. Today Saguy serves on IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi's panel of senior advisers, where he mostly keeps quiet. In internal debates, however, Saguy encouraged the political echelon to back off from the idea of a ground invasion of the Strip, and to trash Livni's plan of "toppling the Hamas regime." If he does not succeed in curbing these plans, disaster will result. It could be expected that lawmakers who were burned by the Second Lebanon War would understand that Israeli planes and tanks cannot replace any Arab government. The only way to kick Hamas out of Gaza is to put the enclave under IDF martial law and a civil administration. In other words, to disengage from the disengagement. In any case, someone will have to take responsibility for the fate of a million and a half human beings. It is doubtful whether the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas will want to rule over Gaza and be portrayed as a "collaborator" with Israel. Even if it does, it is doubtful the PA will be able to stop the rocket fire at Israel. Still, Abbas' position will improve if it is he who mediates the next cease-fire. An Israeli occupation of Gaza without a scaling down of the occupation in the West Bank and progress in the peace process are likely to further weaken Abbas' already weak position and his efforts to compromise Hamas' standing in the West Bank. It is no wonder King Abdullah of Jordan fears Hamas seeping across the river into his kingdom. The monarch is broadcasting SOS messages to Washington, and had already been scheduled for a meeting with Barack Obama in February. Perhaps the secondary product of the war in the south is that the outgoing Israeli government has placed the conflict on the international agenda even before the new U.S. president moves into the White House. After the politicians flex their muscles, the analysts blow smoke and the citizens of Israel have their "honor restored," a new exit from Gaza must be sought - certainly not a new entrance. There is no exit from the unnecessary entanglement in the south other than an immediate renewal of the cease-fire with Hamas and adherence to all its criteria, including lifting the extended blockade of the Strip. Fear of an escalation could encourage external actors like Egypt and Turkey to contribute their part to the cease-fire's implementation. Perhaps instead of "embracing" the family of captive soldier Gilad Shalit, Israel will pursue a new agreement toward exchanging him for Palestinian prisoners. After all, the same people here who lambasted lawmakers for bombing Gaza also want to bring Gilad home. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Holocaust remembrance Host of UN Holocaust memorial skips event after U.S. Jews threaten walk-out. Obama on Arab TV WATCH: In interview with Al-Arabiya Obama urges Palestinians, Israel to talk.   1.   Lords of the Land 10:56  |  Marilyn 29/12/08   2.   Lift blockade only if ceasefire holds 11:02  |  ARA 29/12/08   3.   Establish foundation for a lasting peace: Saudi Plan 11:04  |  Ivar 29/12/08   4.   "Way out of Gaza" 11:10  |  Philip 29/12/08   5.   Can we have "The way out of the WestBank" as well? 11:13  |  John 29/12/08   6.   Only solution: Gaza cleaned-up as new Dubai, WB linked to Jordan 11:22  |  G Marcus 29/12/08   7.   Lords of very little 11:34  |  Star of David 29/12/08   8.   ARA - False Promises 11:40  |  Mark of Lewiston 29/12/08   9.   No golden path. 11:42  |  Colin 29/12/08   10.   Why not? 11:57  |  Colin Wright 29/12/08   11.   eldar how many times do you want the same non working formula 12:00  |  victor hardman 29/12/08   12.   #6 12:20  |  richi 29/12/08   13.   Colin, #9, there is a path, steep and hard, the only path 13:14  |  Ivar 29/12/08   14.   Akiva Ever the Pessimist 13:26  |  Baruch Gold 29/12/08   15.   To Victor #11 13:26  |  Bobby Sands 29/12/08   16.   Lets be realistic 13:48  |  Alon 29/12/08   17.   Ivory tower 14:06  |  Colin 29/12/08   18.   How do you, now, keep Hamas to a cease fire agreement? 14:13  |  a wandering Jew 29/12/08   19.   Baruch, 14, Israel`s aggrieved will not yield to force 14:23  |  Ivar 29/12/08   20.   Gaza is Hamas is Jihad Is Terror is Islam 15:03  |  B 29/12/08   21.   All these copping out wise guys after the facts 15:31  |  only at haaretz 29/12/08   22.   Wake up and smell the TERROR 15:32  |  Kobi 29/12/08   23.   Colin`s delusion about the Saudi Plan 15:39  |  Ivar 29/12/08   24.   The only way out is Obama 18:02  |  Shimon Cleopas 29/12/08   25.   Ivar, that was one of your best yet... 18:37  |  BBSNews 29/12/08   26.   Ivar`s Peace Plan... 20:09  |  Jasper 29/12/08   27.   "the unnecessary entanglement in the south" 22:04  |  Fortuna Benmayor 29/12/08   28.   The Way out Gaza 01:06  |  Jose Dunn 30/12/08   29.   Israel 02:00  |  cruzada 30/12/08   30.   By beginning a new policy 13:01  |  Bruce 30/12/08   31.   Ivar`s "Saudi Plan" 21:03  |  Natan Fuchs 02/01/09

Read & React IAF strikes Hamas tunnels in response to Gaza border blast Responses: 41 Editorial: Obama must let Israeli voters know he won't allow settlement building Responses: 15 Iran arms ship released by U.S. Navy now 'sailing to Syria' Responses: 43 Eyal Benvenisti: Independent probe of alleged Gaza war crimes needed now Responses: 9 Hamas captives tell Shin Bet: We used Gaza mosques to hide arms, for training Responses: 23 More Headlines 10:48 Gaza rocket hits Negev; IAF strikes Hamas tunnels after soldier killed 12:38 On first leg of Mideast tour, Obama envoy says extending Gaza truce 'critical' 10:05 Top UN official blasts Hamas for 'cynical' use of civilian facilities 09:43 ANALYSIS / Border blast demands strong - but not excessive - Israeli response 10:46 Iran arms ship released by U.S. Navy now 'sailing to Syria' 11:30 Ahmadinejad: Obama must apologize to Iran if he really wants change 12:58 Report: IDF probing racist graffiti left by soldiers in Gaza 12:15 Hamas captives tell Shin Bet: We used Gaza mosques to hide arms, for training 12:15 Who puts up a mezuzah in space? A Jewish astronaut 13:04 IDF censures officer for distributing incendiary religious pamphlets to troops 10:57 Peace Now: Israel settlement building accelerated in 2008 10:20 Top IDF reserve officer: Israel passed up 'historic opportunity' in Gaza 07:46 Abbas to tell visiting U.S. envoy: Israel does not want peace 19:11 Obama: Time for Palestinians, Israel to resume peace talks 12:06 'New EU president is a true friend of Israel, a Zionist prince' 07:29 For some young visitors, Holocaust exhibit on righteous Muslims calls up thoughts of Gaza 07:44 VIDEO / Shalit's father: Sarkozy assured me Gilad is alive 01:44 Family keeps name private of IDF tracker slain on Gaza border 00:38 Europe suggests joint PA and Israel transport office 06:23 Judge says evidence suggests mother involved in murder of 4-year-old Rose Previous Editions Select Day 27 jan 26 jan 25 jan 23 jan 22 jan 21 jan 20 jan 19 jan 18 jan 16 jan 15 jan 14 jan

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