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Last update - 04:03 26/12/2008
ANALYSIS / A hard look at Hamas' capabilities
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: IDF, Hamas, Gaza Strip 

Approximately 15,000 armed Palestinians. That's the size of the military force the Israel Defense Forces will face if a major operation in the Gaza Strip goes forward. These militants, from various Hamas factions, will presumably be aided by a few thousand militants from other Palestinian groups.

For two years Hamas, with Iranian assistance, has been working hard on developing its military power, using Hezbollah as a model.

Gaza Palestinians are preparing to step up their offensive, with rockets and mortar shells directed at Israel's civilian population in the south, as well as their defense, digging in to retard the IDF's progress and cause heavy Israeli casualties.
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Nevertheless, military experts in Israel and the West believe the IDF is capable of retaking Gaza. Israeli reservations about a broad military operation, therefore, are mainly linked to the question of what happens afterward, when the IDF controls a large area that it doesn't want and is in constant friction with terrorists and the civilian population.

The main components of the "Hamas Army":

? Order of battle: Hamas is transitioning from a terror group to a paramilitary guerrilla organization. The transition includes improvements to the command and control structure, the acquisition of better weapons and the creation of a training program.

The core of Hamas' "army" is its military wing, Iz al-Din al-Qassam, which the organization sees as its best trained and most disciplined force. It was deployed against Fatah in June 2007 and it will bear the brunt of any engagement with the IDF. Iz al-Din does not generally perform unpopular policing operations (such as the daily suppression of Fatah), instead focusing on preparing for battle with Israel.

The estimated size of the force is about 1,000, divided into sectors and from brigades down to companies.

? Training: Palestinian sources say Iz al-Din troops undergo rigorous military training as well as participating in ideological classes held in mosques. Hamas forces do six months of basic training that includes live-fire exercises in which they learn to fire rockets, antitank missiles and mortar shells.

They undergo urban warfare training, including exercises simulating an assault on a settlement complete with covering machine-gun fire and antitank fire prior to the assault. Some of the instructors were trained in Iran and Lebanon. In recent years dozens of Gazans have traveled to training camps run by terror organizations and Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

IDF soldiers who have fought Hamas cells in the Gaza Strip in the past two years report an impressive improvement in their discipline and in their equipment.

? Other factions: Hamas and smaller organizations, starting with Islamic Jihad, can be expected to cooperate in the event of an engagement with the IDF. Two Popular Resistance Committee factions maintain close contact with Hamas and are likely to subordinate themselves to the organization in a war with Israel.

Three military groupings identified with global jihad (that is, Al-Qaida and its offshoots), on the other hand, will not accept Hamas authority and will continue to operate independently.

? Rocket attacks: The rockets and mortar shells were initially developed as a way of bypassing the border fence, which prevented militants from entering Israel to carry out attacks. Shin Bet security service head, Yuval Diskin, told the cabinet this week that Hamas already has rockets with a range of 40 kilometers, that are capable of reaching Ashdod and the outskirts of Be'er Sheva.

These are advanced Katyusha that were smuggled into Gaza in pieces through the tunnels and assembled in Gaza. These rockets have not yet been fired at Israel but Hamas and Islamic Jihad already have dozens of 122 mm. Grad rockets with a range of about 20 km. Gaza militants recently began using another Iranian-supplied weapon, 120 mm. mortar shells with an 8-kilometer range.

Hamas has also made significant gains in manufacturing its own rockets. It has learned to create Ammonium Perchlorate Compound, an advanced rocket propellant that in addition to extending the Qassam's range beyond 20 kilometers also - and more importantly - increases the rocket's shelf life.

That means the organization can, for the first time, maintain a supply of rockets for months at a time. Analysts believe Hamas currently has over 1,000 rockets. Islamic Jihad maintains its own production and storage facilities, but both rely on Iranian experts for training. Sources in Gaza say that Hamas' "military industry" is working overtime to manufacture rockets, and that the organization can easily fire 80 rockets a day, as it did on Wednesday.

? Defense: Hamas' defensive strategy includes an extensive underground network of bunkers, tunnels and booby-trapped structures. The Palestinians have proved their explosives capabilities, having destroyed three Israeli tanks and two armored personnel carriers using high-grade explosives.

Antitank missiles are an important component of Hamas' defensive strategy, which takes on board the lessons learned by Hezbollah in the Second Lebanon War. Hamas has acquired antitank missiles from the Eastern bloc, although the exact models and capabilities are not known.

Militants can be expected to employ antitank missiles against Israel Air Force helicopters in the event of a confrontation, in the effort to delay and obstruct the entry of the IDF.

? Offensive plans: Hamas' main weapon is its ability to launch dozens of rockets a day at Israel. In the event of an escalation the organization can be expected to try to prove that it can hit more distant targets, such as Be'er Sheva. Ashkelon is liable to suffer massive rockets attacks. In addition, Hamas is likely to target one kibbutz or moshav near the border in an attempt to cause large numbers of residents to leave and weaken Israeli morale. Israel must also be prepared for a surprise from Hamas, a la Hezbollah, ranging from additional tunnels to facilitate abductions to attacks on boats or aircraft and up to attacks on strategic targets in the south.


Related articles:
  • Olmert to hold series of consultations ahead of possible Gaza action
  • Barak warns: Hamas will pay a 'heavy price'
  • ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to believe Jews 'understand only force'
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      1.   gaza 04:28  |  yitz 26/12/08
      2.   Simple solution to Hamas power 05:02  |  Alfredo 26/12/08
      3.   So what happens if they stop? 05:09  |  BBSNews 26/12/08
      4.   I especially like the third graf... 05:30  |  BBSNews 26/12/08
      5.   It`s not that complicated or is it? 05:53  |  Ahron Goren 26/12/08
      6.   Size of Hamas` "army" 05:56  |  Jenny Howard 26/12/08
      7.   Legacy of 3 Years of Olmerts Government 06:29  |  Observer 26/12/08
      8.   A hard look at Hamas` capabilities 06:29  |  gidon ben youash 26/12/08
      9.   Please, no more "surgical strikes" 07:15  |  Connan the barbarian 26/12/08
      10.   What none of the respondents yet realize... 07:26  |  Colin Wright 26/12/08
      11.   Invading Gaza 07:34  |  Daniel Donaly 26/12/2008
      12.   what is next? 07:41  |  Palestinian 26/12/08
      13.   Why all this? 07:44  |  Ben 26/12/08
      14.   what is next? 07:50  |  Palestinian 26/12/08
      15.   For Alfredo # 2 07:51  |  Fortuna Benmayor 26/12/08
      16.   Same was "predicted" about Jenin "stronghold".. 08:13  |  Dr. L. Brnd 26/12/08
      17.   #12 & 14, Palestinian spewing nonsense 08:37  |  SDHD 26/12/08
      18.   BBSNews if they stop there will be peace. 09:36  |  Aby 26/12/08
      19.   Daniel the same predictions dosen`t work. 09:45  |  Aby 26/12/08
      20.   Alfredo -remember Vietnam? 10:06  |  Truth 26/12/08
      21.   #14 "Palestinian" 10:31  |  MF 26/12/08
      22.   #14 Palestinian in Occupied Palestine 11:29  |  Tzfonit 26/12/08
      23.   Will face US oppsition too 11:33  |  isratinian 26/12/08
      24.   #5 Ahron Goren 12:05  |  S 26/12/08
      25.   #5 Ahron Goren 12:08  |  S 26/12/08
      26.   Sustained Artillery Fire on Gaza... 12:10  |  Henry 26/12/08
      27.   #2, #9 - Wannabe mass murderers 12:59  |  Boycott 26/12/08
      28.   Here`s an alternative proposition for you, Aby # 18 13:20  |  Clickfool 26/12/08
      29.   Gaza 14:02  |  Gaza 26/12/08
      30.   SDHD and disgrace to history 1 14:02  |  noor 26/12/08
      31.   SDHD and disgrace to history 2 14:05  |  noor 26/12/08
      32.   SDHD and disgrace to history 3 14:13  |  noor 26/12/08
      33.   SDHD and disgrace to history 4 14:21  |  noor 26/12/08
      34.   The question Olmert is trying 14:33  |  Chris Linthwaite 26/12/08
      35.   Honestly, do Israelis believe that they can reconquer Gaza AND pa 14:36  |  Frodo 26/12/08
      36.   #18 Aby--what about the Illegal Setlement expansion 14:40  |  Labhras 26/12/08
      37.   Know your enemy (and yourself!) 14:46  |  Manny Goldstein 26/12/08
      38.   S #25 14:46  |  Esther 26/12/08
      39.   MF to "Palestinian" # 21. Thank you!!!! 14:54  |  Elyaqim Gamliel 26/12/08
      40.   digging in means launching from schools and homes 14:55  |  Jo 26/12/08
      41.   Product of the Oslo Psychosis. Israel provided most of the arms. 15:41  |  Bennie 26/12/08
      42.   2nd graf could have been written 2 years ago 15:48  |  David K 26/12/08
      43.   Retake Gaza? Then What? 15:50  |  Proud Israeli 26/12/08
      44.   Hamas Capability 15:58  |  Reuven 26/12/08
      45.   Calling Hamas`s bluff 16:09  |  ScotGuy 26/12/08
      46.   #40 Jo 16:46  |  Boycott 26/12/08
      47.   MF, Arafat is dead... 16:49  |  BBSNews 26/12/08
      48.   In short hardly a challange for IDF 19:53  |  GelileeHero 26/12/08
      49.   For ScotGuy # 45 19:55  |  Clickfool 26/12/08
      50.   #38 Ester RE. #5 20:54  |  Ahron Goren 26/12/08
      51.   #48 What will Israel do? 20:57  |  GPS 26/12/08
      52.   Hammas 21:03  |  George Ewart 26/12/08
      53.   History wil show stationary targets were no match for the IDF 21:03  |  Judea 26/12/08
      54.   A short path from GAZA to EGYPT. 21:50  |  JACOBO LASHAK-KOROGO 26/12/08
      55.   BSNews brainded 22:20  |  SDHD 26/12/08
      56.   Noor and complete revisionism of history (2nd try) 22:21  |  SDHD 26/12/08
      57.   #56 SDHD trys to revise the law to suit his agenda 23:10  |  Labhras 26/12/08
      58.   SDHD on revisionism 23:11  |  noor 26/12/08
      59.   `55 SDHD--you seem addled and confused 23:12  |  Labhras 26/12/08
      60.   SDHD and disgrace to history 5 23:22  |  noor 26/12/08
      61.   Take ONLY what you intend to KEEP. 23:27  |  Jeff 26/12/08
      62.   The Warsaw Ghetto held out 23:47  |  Heinz 26/12/08
      63.   Israel must react today 23:59  |  Aidan Moore 26/12/08
      64.   to the common question of what to do after 01:13  |  larzbeach 27/12/08
      65.   this is what will happen. 01:24  |  Refugee 27/12/08
      66.   # 43 if Israel is to go in with their hands tied 01:25  |  larzbeach 27/12/08
      67.   Gaza 01:39  |  T. Wrecks 27/12/08
      68.   HAMAS MUST INVEST N ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS 01:52  |  Ro 27/12/08
      69.   what planet are you on 03:15  |  should be ashamed cl 27/12/08
      70.   Dont underestimate Iranian backed Hamas and Hezbanon 03:27  |  Jane 27/12/08
      71.   what nonsense clickfool 03:30  |  bull 27/12/08
      72.   Had we kept Gaza, Hamas capabilities would be zero. 03:39  |  Chaim 27/12/08
      73.   Olmert & Barak, the two major assets Hamas has were not mentione 03:50  |  Darth Zaider (Ed) 27/12/08
      74.   Had we kept Gaza... 03:58  |  Howard 27/12/08
      75.   hamas and hizbullah deserve to become martyrs 04:43  |  charro 27/12/08
      76.   Not hard enough ! (1) 05:02  |  Akram Zekaria 27/12/08
      77.   hamas 05:20  |  david 27/12/08
      78.   It is not enough (2) 05:32  |  Akram Zekaria 27/12/08
      79.   SDEROT will pay the ultimate for any attack on Gaza 06:04  |  Joe 27/12/08
      80.   Clickfool Will See his People Obliterated 06:24  |  Dav Lev 27/12/08
      81.   Politics, Syria and Hez Are the Problems 06:35  |  Dav Lev 27/12/08
      82.   Gaza solution 06:48  |  Steve Hyman 27/12/08
      83.   The bunkers 08:38  |  shuky 27/12/08
      84.   Hard look at Hams & learn from the past (3) 09:00  |  Akram Zekaria 27/12/08
      85.   No 9. Everyone else dies 09:13  |  Palestinian Brit 27/12/08
      86.   Howard - is flattening the answer or the beginning of the end? 09:24  |  Palestinian Brit 27/12/08
      87.   Dav Lev and the might of the Israeli forces 09:29  |  Palestinian Brit 27/12/08
      88.   Noor 13:55  |  Daniela 27/12/08
      89.   #87 Neither Have the Palestinians in Gaza 14:12  |  DesMnsDave 27/12/08
      90.   yitz and all your arm-chair brethren 17:50  |  samos 27/12/08
      91.   Hopefully, They will be able to defend their people and Democracy 19:12  |  AbuJustice 27/12/08
      92.   to Clickfool re Hamas 19:19  |  George 27/12/08
      93.   #23 20:17  |  JoJo 27/12/08
      94.   Alfredo -remember Vietnam? 21:25  |  Sean Phillips 27/12/08
      95.   Truth-Melbourne 21:40  |  Mark 27/12/08
      96.   are all you arab/muslim appeasers stupid?why,in gods name would 21:44  |  terrornator 27/12/08
      97.   Wasted time on youth????? 22:23  |  Ilana 27/12/08
      98.   Hamas Cowards Are Sitting Ducks 22:28  |  Baruch Gold 27/12/08
      99.   BBSNews,arafat is dead,but when he was alive,most of the pals and 23:26  |  terrornator 27/12/08
      100.   #85 Pal Brit....if the population is on Israeli soil 23:59  |  Lynn 27/12/08
      101.   hamas 00:33  |  david 28/12/08
      102.   hsmas 00:43  |  david 28/12/08
      103.   homemade rockets?someone get these guys some manpads 00:50  |  o and i man 28/12/08
      104.   you forgot to mention the biggest assets of hammas 06:47  |  CHAIM 28/12/08
      105.   #$49 08:38  |  Rab Burns 28/12/08
      106.   Hamas 19:41  |  Diane 30/12/08
      107.   Hamas and American Indians 23:21  |  Carl Echols 30/12/08
      108.   Gods War 12:02  |  Demetrios pappas 31/12/08
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