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Last update - 13:45 24/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Hamas is playing the brinkmanship game in Gaza
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Hamas, Gaza Strip 

The atmosphere of escalation in the Gaza Strip, which has intensified over the past week, has settled down since Monday. The change appears to stem in part from the wintry weather, which limits the activity of Palestinian militants as well as the Israel Defense Forces. But there also seems to be a connection with the Hamas position, which is dancing a strange tango with Israel and does not currently look like it is particularly interested in an extended confrontation.

Officially, Hamas has been saying for several days now that the cease-fire with Israel has ended and that the situation could explode at any moment. Hamas spokesmen say the military wing is ready for anything, and is even preparing to begin a renewed onslaught of suicide bombings. The organization is not trying to terrorize only the residents of the western Negev. Gazans are also worried by the threat of war. But the Hamas warnings are looking more and more like a new version of the most popular game in the region: brinkmanship.

Hamas' conduct gives the impression that it is not interested in deterioration, but feels obligated to portray itself as being ready to go all out. As of press time, Hamas had refrained from firing even a single mortar shell on Israel this week. The rockets and mortar shells that did hit the Negev were launched by smaller Palestinian groups, primarily Islamic Jihad. The death of three Palestinian militants killed by the IDF last night while laying explosives near the security fence between Israel and Gaza might change the picture, but so far Hamas is not taking an active role in escalating the violence; it is simply letting the other groups fire on Israel.
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Moreover, the same spokesmen who kept threatening an end to the six-month cease-fire, which officially expired Friday, have been showing over the past two days that they are willing to renew talks about extending it. Mahmoud Zahar, one of the Hamas leaders in Gaza, told Israel's Channel 10 on Monday that the truce could be restored if Israel provides Gazans with regular food supplies and electricity and puts military actions to a halt in the West Bank and Gaza. Zahar also told Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram in an interview published Tuesday that Israel need only agree to the conditions of the last truce, reached in June, for it to be renewed for another six months.

But Hamas can't look like it came out of the last round of conflict without achieving anything. That's why it is insisting that the Gaza crossing points be opened up for goods to get into the Strip. It may end up giving up on its old demand that the cease-fire apply to the West Bank as well, but it will find it difficult to backtrack on the crossing points. Despite the continued operation of hundreds of tunnels in Rafah, Hamas knows full well that the food supply of two-thirds of Gaza residents depends on international aid. If the crossing points remain closed to goods, the Gazans who stood on long bakery lines Tuesday are liable to turn their anger not just against Israel, but also against Hamas.

Despite a decision in principle about an air strike in Gaza, Israel too is waiting. Not just for the clouds to disperse, but also for Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to return from her trip to Egypt, where she is heading on Thursday. It's doubtful that Israel will take the risk of a serious offensive move before she comes back from her meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Those describing scenarios of all-out war should pay attention to the little details. For instance, the IDF informed its professional soldiers that they need to use up their vacation days by the end of the year, since they won't be able to hold them over until next year. That directive applies to the Southern Command, which is responsible for Gaza, as well - despite the escalation and the feeling of war in the air.


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      1.   Tit for tat, Israel doing the same thing pot calling kettle black 07:16  |  Ivar 24/12/08
      2.   Ivar... 09:24  |  Michael D. 24/12/08
      3.   # 2 to michael d. re: the saudi plan 10:46  |  eric 24/12/08
      4.   They didn`t actually say that 10:51  |  Clickfool 24/12/08
      5.   Israel must declared: We left every sauare sentimeter of the Gaza 10:59  |  Hanokh 24/12/08
      6.   Israelis better take a good hard look at themselves 10:59  |  Mark 24/12/08
      7.   No quick fix 11:59  |  Colin 24/12/08
      8.   8 years of rockets 12:30  |  Rick & TC 24/12/08
      9.   Please Hanokh 12:36  |  Sam Soul 24/12/08
      10.   Thanks Eric 12:39  |  Sam Soul 24/12/08
      11.   ivar straight our from nursery school 13:11  |  latvia 24/12/08
      12.   Gaza is an independent state that has declared a war on Israel... 13:49  |  Jehudah Ben-Israel 24/12/08
      13.   #5 Hanokh 14:21  |  Palestinian 24/12/08
      14.   That`s Hamas way to beg for a truce 14:40  |  Simha 24/12/08
      15.   Both sides dancing to the tune 15:50  |  Mark Lincoln 24/12/08
      16.   NOT WHEN BUSH IS STEPPING DOWN 15:51  |  indrajaya 24/12/08
      17.   Few heard him 15:54  |  Mark Lincoln 24/12/08
      18.   Now Amos Harel is wishing for the impossible 16:02  |  Mark Lincoln 24/12/08
      19.   You are kidding yourselves! 16:41  |  Jason 24/12/08
      20.   #13: tanks versus life 16:44  |  elimelech 24/12/08
      21.   " Hamas is playing the brinkmanship game in Gaza" 16:54  |  Akram Zekaria 24/12/08
      22.   Hey Indy, dont hold your breathe on obama 17:02  |  boxley 24/12/08
      23.   THEY SHOULD REMEMBER THAT ALSO 17:13  |  Robert 24/12/08
      24.   # 22, BOXLEY 17:15  |  indrajaya 24/12/08
      25.   Hamas knows this game will end when Likud wins the election 17:58  |  Judea 24/12/08
      26.   Hamas Needs Israel, Israel Does Not Need Hamas 18:04  |  Baruch Gold 24/12/08
      27.   #20 18:09  |  jane 24/12/08
      28.   25~Judea : Israel most serious danger. 19:31  |  Akram Zekaria 24/12/08
      29.   Ivar - Wishful thinking 19:39  |  Elihu 24/12/08
      30.   No, Elihu, 29, I`m not thinking naiively or wishfully 20:39  |  Ivar 24/12/08
      31.   LOTS OF WISHFUL THINKING 21:27  |  joe 24/12/08
      32.   # 10 to sam soul re: stereotyping 11:50  |  eric 25/12/08
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