Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., December 24, 2008 Kislev 27, 5769 | | Israel Time: 00:31 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Joy of Giving Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 17:31 22/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Israel must choose between bad and worse Gaza options
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: hamas, israel news 

The rocket barrages on communities near the Gaza Strip, particularly since the official end of the cease-fire on Friday, have led Israel to officially change its line from "quiet in exchange for quiet" to open threats.

The Olmert-Barak-Livni trio has decided to respond, and the timing will depend on operational conditions; in other words, the Israel Air Force will go into action. The Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service assume that increased operations from the air will be met with heavier rocket fire from Hamas on targets farther from Gaza. The IDF might then launch a ground operation.

Ground troops have not received operational orders, but on the home front, warning systems have been upgraded in communities 30 to 40 kilometers from the border, in rocket range. That's the distance Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin discussed with the cabinet when he warned that Hamas rockets can reach the outskirts of Be'er Sheva.
Advertisement
These are upgraded Katyushas that have recently been smuggled into Gaza. Diskin told the ministers that Hamas wants a conflict with Israel for a limited time to force a renewed lull under more favorable conditions. Meanwhile, a number of Hamas leaders have gone underground in the Strip, out of fear of assassination by Israel.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert opened Sunday's cabinet meeting in Jerusalem by saying: "A responsible government does not rush into battle and does not evade it." The upcoming elections brought mutual recriminations to the surface during the meeting. Defense Minister Ehud Barak called on Olmert to "restrain irresponsible chatter" by some ministers, meaning Kadima's Tzipi Livni and Vice Premier Haim Ramon.

Israel's leaders seem to be realizing their error of recent weeks vis-a-vis Hamas. Hamas concluded from Israel's declarations that we want peace and have no intention of taking over Gaza; that it is free to strike at the Negev as much as it wants because Israel is afraid of an entanglement.

According to leaks from Jerusalem Sunday, a decision has been made for an extensive military action, and a ground operation is not out of the question. At this stage, Israel apparently prefers other options. First, the air force will go in, striking not only rocket-launching cells but also attempting to hit the manufacturers, suppliers and commanders. Targets might also include Hamas bases, offices, and if there's an escalation, assassinations of senior Hamas officials.

As for a ground operation, the question is how to get Hamas to go back to the understandings in place at the beginning of the cease-fire without risking all-out fighting that would begin with rockets on Ashdod and Be'er Sheva and end with the return of Israeli armor to Gaza.

A series of decisions - the disengagement in the summer of 2005, the agreement to allow Palestinian parliamentary elections in January 2006 (which Hamas won), and the cease-fire of June this year - all led to the current dilemma. Israel must now decide among a number of bad options.

A point the media has missed over the past few days is that most of the rockets are being launched by Islamic Jihad and smaller factions, which Hamas has stopped reining in. If Hamas goes into action, there could be 100 rockets a day instead of dozens.

Meanwhile, Hamas is leaving open the option of dialogue. On Sunday, two spokesmen for the organization in Gaza complained that Egypt had not asked for a discussion on extending the cease-fire. Egypt seems in a hurry to mediate between Israel and Hamas, perhaps hoping that if Hamas bleeds, it will reconsider its arrogant attitude toward Cairo.

Hamas also has a less-than-spectacular array of choices. Escalating rocket fire will put its leaders in Israeli sights. The Arab world will see Hamas as a "resistance" organization like Hezbollah but it will not be able to function. A renewed cease-fire without an upgrade will make Hamas appear to have knuckled under to the Jews. Israeli defense officials strongly believe that Haniyeh and his people were unwillingly maneuvered into the current escalation by Khaled Meshal, Hamas' political leader in Damascus.

Related articles:
  • Rice: Renewed Gaza violence will not help Palestinian cause
  • Has the Gaza cease-fire really breathed its last?
  • IAF strikes targets in Gaza in response to Qassam fire
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Caught on camera
    IDF soldier arrested for allegedly shooting gun while rioting with settlers in Hebron.
    Kadima's election ploy
    New computer game pokes fun at Netanyahu's reluctance to debate Livni.
      1.   targeted killings work! 04:35  |  Arie 22/12/08
      2.   If amos harel has any say 04:36  |  Arie 22/12/08
      3.   Start with your endgame 05:04  |  Ken 22/12/08
      4.   DELETED BY MODERATOR 05:09  |  myself 22/12/08
      5.   options 06:14  |  colin 22/12/08
      6.   Only two options left 06:38  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      7.   there`s really no purpose to again pursue military options.... 06:39  |  Smadar 22/12/08
      8.   I tend to agree with this artical 06:50  |  Ron 22/12/08
      9.   Why not just choose peace? 07:31  |  BBSNews 22/12/08
      10.   Destroy the terrorists. 08:11  |  Jean Van Daem 22/12/08
      11.   DELETED BY MODERATOR 08:13  |  Rob 22/12/08
      12.   This is Simple 08:14  |  Baruch Gold 22/12/08
      13.   Simple solution 08:17  |  Gili 22/12/08
      14.   Little foresight and backbone leads to more death and destruction 08:25  |  Gilad 22/12/08
      15.   "Hamas wants a conflict with Israel for a limited time" 08:35  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      16.   "Israel Air Force will go into action" 08:40  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      17.   "Israel`s leaders realising their errors" 08:43  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      18.   "to force a renewed lull under more favourable conditions" 08:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      19.   #1, MarkL, Hamas has a clear option 09:05  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      20.   DELETED BY MODERATOR 09:22  |  penelope kelly 22/12/08
      21.   No peace without lifting the economic blockade 09:34  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      22.   Lots of options, just no leadership 09:47  |  JPS 22/12/08
      23.   It is a kinder garden class!!!! 10:24  |  Marwan 22/12/08
      24.   Why not try talking? 10:36  |  Fred 22/12/08
      25.   That`s what we get from the Likud backing 10:55  |  Yaakov K. 22/12/08
      26.   lift the economic seige 11:42  |  SD 22/12/08
      27.   Marwan 12:07  |  Daniela 22/12/08
      28.   #21 Clickfool 12:15  |  H 22/12/08
      29.   #21, fool complaining about "moderator" 12:25  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      30.   For H, on starvation in the Gaza Ghetto # 28 12:47  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      31.   The lefties .... 12:50  |  Jasper 22/12/08
      32.   For Cipora, on context # 29 13:08  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      33.   Support for action. 13:12  |  Colin 22/12/08
      34.   #30 Clickfool 13:17  |  H 22/12/08
      35.   #30, Hamas taxes food and even water 13:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/12/08
      36.   No, Mark #6, there are far better options that will work... 13:45  |  Dr. L. Brnd 22/12/08
      37.   C-fool, Israel has every right to treat Gaza as UK did Dresden 13:59  |  Dr. L. Brnd 22/12/08
      38.   Solution, accepting Saudi Plan, is NOT capitulation, but honesty! 14:07  |  Ivar 22/12/08
      39.   Clickfool - Egypt has a border with Gaza, blame them 14:38  |  Lee (the real one) 22/12/08
      40.   For H # 34 14:55  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      41.   All the way with CJK 14:59  |  Peter Williams 22/12/08
      42.   Are you mad, Lee (the Real One)? # 39 15:01  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      43.   Did you forget mr. Clickfool? 15:02  |  Jean Van Daem 22/12/08
      44.   Hamas and Fatah or vice versa 15:07  |  Harvey 22/12/08
      45.   Yeah like when it comes to Japan in WW2 the u.s chose between 15:12  |  No Chelm adviser 22/12/08
      46.   Ivar the Boring 15:18  |  Sean 22/12/08
      47.   clickfool re: Gaza and hunger and your blindness 15:19  |  x-ray 22/12/08
      48.   clickfool re: Gaza and hunger and your blindness 15:19  |  x-ray 22/12/08
      49.   Interesting fact for the Man With a Vowel Problem # 37 15:22  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      50.   Cipora soumds like the Stoop Report 15:28  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      51.   For Jean van Daem # 43 15:29  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      52.   #40 Clickfool 15:30  |  H 22/12/08
      53.   Click Fool`s Irish Whiskey 15:36  |  Jasper 22/12/08
      54.   How quickly the rabid right deny the situation 15:38  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      55.   Clickfool your answer to the real Alan was childish and inaccurat 15:43  |  x-ray 22/12/08
      56.   What happened to that famous 15:46  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      57.   Plain truth for "Jasper" # 53 16:00  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      58.   The only option is harsh punishment upon each firing of rockets.. 16:28  |  Jehudah ben-Israel 22/12/08
      59.   Mark Lincoln, seeing Bush heading into the sunset decides to 17:08  |  Jacob Blues 22/12/08
      60.   Mark Lincoln #50 and #54 17:12  |  Mark B. 22/12/08
      61.   Questioning the Warsaw Ghetto... 17:38  |  BBSNews 22/12/08
      62.   On 14 May, 1948 17:43  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      63.   #62 You know why, Matk Lincoln 17:49  |  Mark B. 22/12/08
      64.   Jacob Blues and the aura of unreality... 17:50  |  BBSNews 22/12/08
      65.   No need to step into the sewer , GPS, IAF 17:53  |  TOMY 22/12/08
      66.   So why have the Palestinians not declared independence? 17:55  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      67.   if we fight an all out war on hamas, hezbollah will attack too! 17:55  |  Yousef 22/12/08
      68.   As Palestine is a proto-nation 18:04  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      69.   No mention of Gaza Siege in article 18:04  |  Mick 22/12/08
      70.   Olmert,Barak,Livni trio will fail they havent learned 18:07  |  Shepherd 22/12/08
      71.   The problem BBS, is that it`s not resistance 18:12  |  Jacob Blues 22/12/08
      72.   Bigger BS asks the Arabs a question 18:34  |  peter 22/12/08
      73.   54, Mark Lincoln 18:40  |  Harry 22/12/08
      74.   Why is Olmert still here and not in jail? 18:48  |  bat yam 22/12/08
      75.   if end game is negotiation why not negotiate? 18:51  |  Paul Freedman 22/12/08
      76.   "Arabs" peter? 19:03  |  BBSNews 22/12/08
      77.   BBSNews thinks this is still about Gaza 19:37  |  John 22/12/08
      78.   For Israeli Politicians Peace Is Never An Option - Repost 20:07  |  chet 22/12/08
      79.   John proposes a zero sum game... 20:07  |  BBSNews 22/12/08
      80.   Notice something about the essay? 20:18  |  Colin Wright 22/12/08
      81.   Clickfool 57 - of course Hamas knows about 20:20  |  ChanahS 22/12/08
      82.   #66 Mark Lincoln - not sure about Israel not wanting to give up 21:03  |  Smadar 22/12/08
      83.   #79 BBSNews 21:37  |  John 22/12/08
      84.   BBS Spouts Again 21:53  |  Golani 22/12/08
      85.   Jasper 21:55  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      86.   For Chanah S # 81 22:16  |  Clickfool 22/12/08
      87.   What `sells` in Israeli elections - chet 22:21  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      88.   BBS Share your wisdom 22:31  |  Golani 22/12/08
      89.   Smadar - the majority do not matter 22:33  |  Mark Lincoln 22/12/08
      90.   BBS Lets be clear about one thing 22:48  |  Golani 22/12/08
      91.   Golani on Meshal and Zahar... 00:42  |  BBSNews 23/12/08
      92.   Clickfool 86- ever heard of 00:56  |  ChanahS 23/12/08
      93.   Harry, are you over 50? 01:55  |  Mark Lincoln 23/12/08
      94.   #50, Mark L, you are worse than a hypcrite 02:04  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/12/08
      95.   #66, MarkL why the Palestiniians will not declare a state 02:17  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/12/08
      96.   93, Mark Lincoln 03:22  |  Harry 23/12/08
      97.   #94 I`m curious, Cipora..... 04:50  |  Johnboy 23/12/08
      98.   #97, you obviously know nothing of the Warsaw Ghetto 13:25  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/12/08
      99.   Johnboy gets run over by Cipora 20:05  |  Peter Williams 23/12/08
     Read & React
    U.K. envoy: Fight against settlements not about boycotting Israel
    Responses: 134
    Mubarak extends rare invite to Livni for talks on Gaza violence
    Responses: 46
    Yoel Marcus: Have politicians pushing for Gaza war forgotten Lebanon debacle?
    Responses: 54
    Olmert to Turkish PM: We must advance toward direct Israel-Syria talks
    Responses: 58
    B. Chefetz: Security fence breeding new generation of suicide bombers
    Responses: 49


    More Headlines
    21:51 IDF troops kill three Gaza militants at border fence
    21:23 Top Lebanon MP Hariri: Talks with Israel not in our national interest
    22:10 Livni: Syria peace deal must be worth more than scrap of paper
    22:04 Arab League chief urges member states to talk to Iran
    19:26 Olmert orders Jerusalem-area separation fence built by 2010
    22:06 IDF soldier detained for firing gun alongside rioting settlers
    23:52 Livni and Netanyahu eye satire TV offers after Barak appears on 'A Wonderful Country'
    21:16 Kadima's latest election trick: Computer game targeting Netanyahu
    00:10 Settler council appeals for ban on Geneva Initiative campaign
    18:46 French envoy: Palestinians given $3b in foreign aid in 2008
    18:22 Activists to sail from Lebanon in new bid to break Gaza blockade
    14:57 Lieberman: Decent defense minister could solve Gaza problem in 2 months
    19:39 New York man admits he helped broadcast Hezbollah TV in U.S. store
    16:12 Knesset panel: No raises in 2009 for MKs, salaries to stay at NIS 33,259
    22:35 Tourist discovers trove of 1,300-year-old coins in Jerusalem's City of David
    18:31 WATCH: How do YOU celebrate Hanukkah?
    13:40 Settlers latch on to tourism as key to holding West Bank
    Previous Editions
    Special Offers
    Advertisement
    Summer in Israel
    Israeli style - Tzofim Chetz V'Keshet 2009
    SURF RAMBAM
    Keep current about new-wave medical care, education and research.
    Summer Camp in Israel
    The best place for your children this summer
    Academic Studies in Israel
    All the Q & A at the IDC HERZLIYA Open House, January 9,2009
    Fattal Hotel Chain
    Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel.
    Car rental in Israel
    Shlomo Sixt Receive $15.00 from our low rates.
    Eldan Rent a Car
    Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations
    Jewish Singles Personal Ads
    Find the love of your life on JDate.com
    Hebrew Summer courses
    From $39.95
    Junkyard
    Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
    Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |
    Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel
    birthright Israel | Search engine marketing
    Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
    © Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved