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Last update - 04:08 21/12/2008 ANALYSIS / Budget will decide whether Israel attacks Iran By Aluf Benn The most important decision the next government of Israel will have to make is how to distribute resources intended for use against the Iranian nuclear threat, senior defense officials involved in decision-making have told Haaretz. The new government will have to decide whether to invest in developing measures to attack Iran's nuclear facilities or developing means of defense and deterrance if Iran does attain nuclear power. The budget will decide whether Israel will seriously consider a military option against Iran. A decision focusing on defense and deterrance will mean that Israel has given up on attacking Iran. The dilemma becomes more serious in the context of economic recession, which limits the government's ability to expand the defense budget. Those who support deterrance believe there is no substitute for the military option, and costly resources should not be wasted on a plan that will never be implemented. They also say that, at most, Israel could bring about a delay of a few years in the Iranian nuclear project, which does not justify the risk of complications in the action or a wider regional conflict. They prefer investing in a number of long-term projects that will increase Israel's ability to defend itself against the nuclear threat. Advertisement Outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert objected to this approach. His position was that if Israel can thwart the Iranian threat, its present deterrent capability and resources should not be wasted on redundant deterrent capabilities. As far as is known, Olmert has yet to approve the continued development of a number of projects. Those who are for the "attack option" say there is great value in delaying the development of Iranian nuclear capabilities by two to four years by means of an Israeli attack. Optimally, they say such an action could also undermine the regime in Tehran, or at least lead to international support against Iranian nuclearization. "In choosing a strategy vis a vis a non-conventional Iranian threat, we must consider the limited resources at our disposal, which requires sophisticated risk-management," the chairman of the National Economic Council, Professor Manuel Trachtenberg, told the annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies last Thursday. There is no consensus in the defense community about this approach. Experts say the price of the attack option is lower than its detractors say. They also say the IDF needs about NIS 1 billion a year to strengthen its "long arm," with funding going mainly for intelligence, refueling planes and the munitions-carrying capacity of Israel Air Force planes, and of course for training, and that the budget can bear the expense. Military Intelligence says that over the past year Iran has crossed the "technological threshold" and now has the ability to enrich uranium. Attaining nuclear weapons is now a matter only of a decision by the Iranian leadership, time and circumstances. But intelligence experts say Iran prefers stockpiling a large amount of fissionable material before moving on to military nuclear technology, which presents a window of opportunity for a final diplomatic effort to stop development of an Iranian bomb. Related articles: U.S. congressman: Give talks with Iran no more than 3 months Russia in talks with Iran over sale of anti-aircraft missiles, despite Israeli objections Executive arrested in N.Y. over Iranian nuclear funding scheme Bookmark to del.icio.us   Iranian Jews protest Members of Tehran's small Jewish community demonstrate against IDF operation in Gaza. Missile's view Watch Israel's attack on Gaza from the perspective of the missile.   1.   The budget will decide how much should Israel bark but not bite 05:26  |  Aounist 21/12/08   2.   Assured Mutual Destruction 06:31  |  Baz Mann 21/12/08   3.   israel will never attack 07:07  |  dan 21/12/08   4.   How many Israelis does the government 07:09  |  spyguy 21/12/08   5.   Budget will decide? 07:37  |  Made In Iran 21/12/08   6.   Is there room for hesitations? 07:46  |  Jean Van Daem 21/12/08   7.   It should be the job of the international community 08:17  |  De 21/12/08   8.   Good news for Aluf Benn 10:30  |  Clickfool 21/12/08   9.   "Experts" always do 10:35  |  Clickfool 21/12/08   10.   I have never heard anything so pathetic 11:57  |  zionist forever 21/12/08   11.   For De # 7 12:56  |  Clickfool 21/12/08   12.   What`s the price tag on an all-out regional war? 13:52  |  Avi 21/12/08   13.   Decisions. 14:01  |  Charles Smyth 21/12/08   14.   what persians are left will throw flowers at us 16:14  |  wolfodipts 21/12/08   15.   Preparing the public to back down? 16:41  |  Mark Lincoln 21/12/08   16.   Self-delusion 20:07  |  Axel 21/12/08   17.   What`s the price tag on an all-out regional war? 23:01  |  Mark Lincoln 21/12/08   18.   The typical modern conservative 23:12  |  Mark Lincoln 21/12/08   19.   Iran is already finished 02:02  |  Jennifer 22/12/08   20.   #7, DE, screw you, fight your own bloody war 02:29  |  VIPER 22/12/08   21.   to #19 Jennifer 20:49  |  I 23/12/08   22.   that`s real nice to know;that Israel`s budget will determine 07:06  |  glenna 24/12/08   23.   way to go oldmert another one of your reassuring statements on 19:24  |  glenna 24/12/08   24.   dream that wont come true .....sad huh!!! 04:43  |  xyz 31/12/08

Read & React Rockets fired from Gaza kill 2 Israelis within hour Responses: 227 ANALYSIS / Hamas is hoping for an IDF ground operation Responses: 136 Grossman / Is Israel imprisoned in the ceremony of war? Responses: 120 Prolonged Gaza operation spells trouble for Israel Responses: 47 Chicago synagogue firebombed; police probe possible link to Gaza violence Responses: 36 More Headlines 04:50 Cabinet debating 48-hour Gaza truce as international pressure grows 04:13 IDF ready for ground push, waiting for official go-ahead 04:13 Gaza rockets strike Be'er Sheva for first time; 34 treated for shock 04:11 ANALYSIS / Hamas is racking up its first diplomatic victory 03:57 Hundreds across U.S. protest Gaza operation 04:33 Fatah loyalists: Gaza op is 'Allah's revenge' for Hamas actions 00:11 Ex-U.S. Army engineer Kadish pleads guilty to spying for Israel 22:21 WATCH: Israel's attack on Gaza from the missiles' viewpoint 16:50 IN PICTURES / Firestorm over Gaza 00:45 VIDEO / Mubarak: We'll open Gaza crossing only if PA takes control 22:23 Quartet calls for immediate truce between Israel and Gaza 22:29 Israeli boy, 3, lightly wounded by Palestinian stone-throwers 17:04 Elder child of Chabad Mumbai attack victims dies of long-term illness 02:09 Throngs at Ashdod funeral mark 'war against Israeli normalcy' 02:17 Mayor of rocket-battered Netivot calls for talks with Hamas 02:59 Iranian government raids office of Nobel Peace Prize laureate 03:22 Criminal probe opened against rabbis who signed anti-Arab labor ads Previous Editions Select Day 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 22 dec 21 dec 19 dec 18 dec 17 dec

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