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'Rumors of my demise were premature' - continued By Ari Shavit Tags: Israel news, Ehud Barak Life is complex You are not straightforward. You lack the wisdom of simplicity. You are too complex and incomprehensible. "I will let you in on a secret: Life is complex. Neither an individual nor a state can cope with complex problems using tools that are not complex. It has already been said that those who hold a hammer think that every problem is a nail. But it's not so. Reality is tangled. I know that simplistic statements and approaches have a charm of their own. But I'm not willing to be simplistic just to be popular. I tell you that what is needed is a leadership that understands complexity, but at the same time is capable of making decisions and executing them forcefully." Advertisement You are not a politician. Both in 2000 and in 2008, you made every possible mistake. And politics is a profession. You can't succeed in politics without understanding it. "That allegation is true. I am not a natural politician. Just as for some of my friends an environment of special nighttime operations or combat in a built-up area is not natural - I am not natural in politics. I once sat with a very senior Israeli politician to find out why we disagreed. The difference between us, I told him, is that when I look at a problem, I ask what should be done about it, whereas when you look at the same problem, you ask what it will do to you. That is an abysmal difference. It explains a great deal of what went wrong here in the recent past. "My decision to bring about a situation in which Olmert would no longer be prime minister was not a smart political move. It unleashed powerful forces against me, and I am paying a price for it. But it was clear to me that the question was not about me ... In the end there are citizens, there are children, there is the future of the country. The State of Israel will not survive if Third World norms prevail in it. Therefore, I did what I did in regard to Olmert when no one else did anything. That is also why I backed the Supreme Court and the rule of law when almost no one else did. "Bibi [Benjamin Netanyahu] did nothing. We did not hear him during the Second Lebanon War and we did not hear him during the corruption episodes. He behaved like a smart politician. He waited for the moment when the hostility toward Olmert would serve him. Tzipi [Livni] also behaved like a smart politician. We did not hear her in connection with the Greek island affair [involving Ariel Sharon] or in connection with the Olmert affairs, and she did nothing after Winograd [the committee that investigated the Second Lebanon War]. Neither Netanyahu nor Livni drew conclusions. They did not act. There was some sort of lame political behavior, both convenient and fashionable. I was not willing to accept that virtual, pale politics. Because I am not actually a politician, I still believe that state affairs need to be managed truly, practically, and with utter seriousness." Why Barak and not Livni? "Because in the last analysis a steady hand is needed at the wheel, together with experience and unmediated understanding of things. In recent years Israel has paid a steep price for the lack of experienced leadership. Livni is all right as a person, but she does not purport to say that she is ready today to lead in a serious security crisis or political clash with the international community, or with a complex economic policy. Instead, she says: 'I will introduce a different politics, I will bring change.' "That statement needs to be attacked simply, directly and between the eyes: Kadima and 'a different politics' is an oxymoron. Politics and change can't work. There is no chance that Kadima will bring change. It did not even bring about the change that led to its different leadership. I was the one who had to 'bake' that change, put it in the oven and make sure it didn't fall apart ... On its own, Kadima would not have been capable of changing itself. Certainly it will not be able to change the country. It lacks all ability to introduce new norms or a different politics. "The word is that Tzipi Livni is unsullied. But our electoral system is not personal. We do not elect an individual. And even about that individual, one can say: Tell me who your friends are and I will tell you who you are. Livni says she can introduce a different politics, but she is surrounded by [people involved in] cases being heard in the courts and under investigation. Some of them were even convicted. So how can she talk seriously about clean politics when the contradiction between that assertion and her party is so clear? Just scratch the surface, like in those lottery cards, and you see the truth. "But Kadima says something else as well: that if you don't vote for Livni, you will get Bibi. Well, that argument is an insult to people's intelligence. The writing is on the wall: Kadima is an 'atmosphere' party. A party that is a refugee camp. A party of an ideological motley. If you vote Kadima, you don't know if your vote is going left, right or center. You are not voting for Tzipi Livni and Dalia Itzik. You are also voting for Ze'ev Boim and Roni Bar-On and Shaul Mofaz and Tzachi Hanegbi and Eli Aflalo. "The result is that a vote for Kadima is a vote for Bibi. It is perfectly clear that if there is parity between the blocs, at least 10 people will bolt Kadima and move to Netanyahu. So that anyone who votes for Kadima is voting for a chameleon. He cannot know what the result will be ... In contrast to Labor, Kadima has no color of its own. It will be very easy for Kadima to assume a Bibi color and give him a solid majority." National-unity chances Will Labor join a national-unity government led by Netanyahu? "We will not enter a government whose basic guidelines are not consistent with our path. We are trying to position ourselves in the center of the government. If the voter decides that we have to lead the opposition, then we will lead the opposition. I don't like it, but we will not recoil from it. If necessary, we will lead the opposition." What are the challenges that the new Israeli leadership will face immediately after the elections? "The first challenge is the Iranian threat. The second challenge is the political opportunities that might neutralize part of the threat. The third challenge is the economic crisis and the fourth is education. In addition, there is the issue of a different form of government and the fight against organized crime." Let's start with Iran. "Iran with nuclear weapons is a concrete threat to world peace. I am not one who believes that if Iran has nuclear weapons, it will immediately launch a bomb at a neighbor. Iran is well aware that some of its neighbors are nuclear and that a move like that will send it back thousands of years in time. So that is not the danger. The main danger is that a nuclear weapon will fall into the hands of terrorist groups, which will not hesitate to use it immediately. They will send it in a container using GPS to a leading port in the United States, Europe or Israel. That is the danger. Therefore, Iran must not be allowed to go nuclear. "Time is running out. The Iranians are making progress both because they are accumulating quantities of enriched material, and also because they are in the process of armoring their system. The Iranians are not backgammon players, they are chess players. Every move they make is calculated and weighed carefully. They are trying to deceive the world. That is why urgent and acute diplomatic action is needed that will result in sanctions under Article 7 of the UN Charter. The sanctions have to include petroleum distillates and financial movements. I will not comment on the question of what will happen if the sanctions will not be implemented in time. But I will say that the decisions that will be required demand steady hands - judicious, responsible, accurate, determined and unexcitable - at the wheel. It will be necessary to maneuver between threats and opportunities, to distinguish between things that tempt one to act and things that should stop one from acting. More than in any other period, Israel cannot afford a hollow leadership at this time." Syria. "[Syrian President] Bashar Assad wants peace on his terms, and we have to clarify whether some convergence can be found between his terms and our demands. Israel has a strategic interest in removing Syria from the circle of hostility. That will be a very serious blow to the radical axis. Iran's status will change, Hezbollah will be greatly weakened, and indirectly so will Hamas. Therefore, peace with Syria is an option that needs to be examined ... In 2009 we will have to assume the supreme responsibility of examining the Syrian issue coolly, with an open mind, while strictly safeguarding our interests. And with a readiness to make decisions if it turns out there is a partner on the other side who is also ready to make decisions." Palestine. "The hurdle on the Palestinian track is higher than on the Syrian track. It is far more complicated. That is why I favor action in two ways: on the one hand, action from bottom to top, which we are already undertaking now in Jenin, Bethlehem and many other places. There are few who understand the importance of this, but we are building infrastructures in the realms of security and the economy, and in terms of establishing the institutions of the Palestinian Authority. However, on the other side we need the architecture of a regional settlement that views the Saudi plan as a basis for discussion. Not to agree to everything - many details need to be changed - but to discuss it. "When Netanyahu talks about economic peace alone, he proves that he did not read [Zionist Revisionist leader Ze'ev] Jabotinsky to the end. Eighty years ago, Jabotinsky already understood that the Palestinians are a nation and not a rabble, and therefore will not make do with economic benefits that we heap on them. On the other hand, some on the left are also losing sight of reality. The right way is our middle way, which says that in the long term, the solution is two states for two peoples, but also that there are no quick and immediate solutions. I do not see a massive evacuation of settlements in the coming years, but I support evacuation-compensation legislation. We have to move forward with open eyes and feet on the ground, with the left hand constantly looking for political solutions while the right hand stays on the trigger." Continued cease-fire Gaza. Wasn't the tahadiyeh (the cease-fire) a mistake? Did it not cause an intolerable situation in the south of the country? "It is clear that the tahadiyeh was not a mistake. The Israel Defense Forces still exists. We have not dismantled it. During the tahadiyeh the IDF grew stronger and its ability to hit Hamas targets improved immeasurably. I am the minister of defense, not the minister of war. I am continuing the policy of Ben-Gurion and Rabin, which says that Israel is not interested in wars, but has an interest to postpone them as much as possible. Therefore, I do not flinch from an operation and I do not rush into an operation. If the quiet continues, there will be quiet. If the lull is shattered we will act. "But there are people who have never seen a war who are declaiming populist messages. ... Too many times I have seen all the impassioned, excited people in politics and the media move with intolerable haste to looking for cover and covering their asses. The talk by certain ministers in Kadima about responding with immediate fire to the sources of the shooting [from Gaza] is sheer populism, totally simplistic. It is a Pavlovian proposal that will turn Israel into a Pavlovian hostage of every extremist organization in Gaza. I see no blessing in acting before thinking. We already tried that in the Second Lebanon War. What's needed is to count to 10, prepare an operation as required, and if in the end there is no choice, implement it. I find the tahadiyeh option preferable. But I say to you with full responsibility that the chief of staff and I are thinking about the matter in depth, in contrast to the firebrands, tongue-waggers and eye-rollers. If confrontation becomes a necessity, we will do the right thing at the right time and in the right place." The economic crisis. "The world has not seen a crisis of this seriousness for 80 years. In Israel people are not yet sufficiently aware of its severity, but in my estimation by election day they will understand. If there is no movement toward war next year, the economic issue will be the most urgent and painful for Israel's citizens. "What the economic crisis is showing is the deep, fundamental weaknesses of Netanyahu's economic management in the past and the failed economic management of Kadima in the present. Netanyahu did some very good things, for which he deserves praise. But he is responsible for the fact that the proportion of government-guaranteed bonds in the new pension funds fell from 70 to 30 percent. Netanyahu is responsible for the fact that the risk level in the pension sphere rose dramatically. He represents an ideological belief in the unseen hand of the market that even America now understands has failed. "On the other hand, Kadima showed in the past few months how not to manage a country in the face of a crisis. It behaved with total confusion and in effect did nothing. When we said the crisis was imminent, they did not listen to us. When we said it was vital to convene the treasury, the governor of the Bank of Israel, the employers and the Histadrut [labor federation] to formulate a joint policy, they did nothing. As in other areas, the Kadima leaders did not see reality in front of their noses and waited until they slammed into the wall." Do you have a plan to deal comprehensively with the crisis? "Of course. What we have to do is increase the budget in Keynesian style. There is no need to worry about an increase of NIS 20 billion or maybe even NIS 30 billion. After all, that is only about 3 percent of the GNP and 8 percent of the budget. That money has to be used without delay for professional retraining (for the unemployed), a safety net (for those with savings funds), credit assistance and recapitalization for thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses, and renewing trust in the banking and financial system. In addition, investment in infrastructure and R&D has to be expanded, and a tax exemption must be granted to the five industries in which Israel excels: alternative energy, desalination, biotechnology, learning aids and personal security. Only by taking dramatic, creative measures to strengthen these industries of the future will they become the engines that will pull us out of the crisis, which is going to be far more acute than people think. "We have to understand that Israel cannot simply emerge from the crisis. Israel must emerge from the crisis strengthened ... Israel will not be able to survive if it is not a country of excellence. There are powerful forces here; the internal rifts are deep and the external threats are large. We will be able to move ahead only if we excel. Only when both we and those who observe us from outside have the feeling that we are moving forward; when it is clear to everyone that this is a country of creativity and excellence. "However, for that to happen, the leadership must also demonstrate excellence. If our children are going to want to stay here, there must be a leadership that possesses abilities, norms and values. If there is something that has truly bothered me in the past few years it is the feeling that the leadership has ceased to be serious. That the seriousness and the no-nonsense attitude shown by the government of Israel in the Six-Day War did not exist in the Second Lebanon War. And that instead of a true leadership guided by a compass, we had no few false leaders holding weather vanes. That must end. "We are truly not on some reality show. We are not sending text messages to some 'Big Brother' house where others are playing. This game is us. We are all part of this game. And it is not a game and not a movie ... Let us stop behaving as though this is virtual reality. What is happening here is happening in actuality. What is happening here is our life." After all the mistakes and failures, do you still believe you are destined to occupy a central place in our life? "The rumors of my demise were premature. So were the rumors about the demise of the Labor Party. The last two weeks have seen something of a sobering up. People have started to understand that the other alternatives are dangerous or hollow. That we are the true center. The Labor Party is Israel's only center party. But I cannot tell you what the final outcome will be. I am not built for PR; I am built for action. But I feel I am doing the right thing ... I know that to lead the State of Israel is like walking a rope between two cliffs: You have to expend all your energy just to keep your balance. Every mistake is fateful. "When I saw how things were managed here in the past few years I started to worry. The State of Israel is a one-time creation. Three generations ago we were in degenerative exile, and no one knew where we would be three generations later. We are truly in the eye of the storm ... That is why I returned. Because when I see the ship listing and the cargo on the ship tilting, and the passengers ignoring this and preferring to repress things - I know that I have a part to play. I feel that responsibility has been given to me. I feel I am in a struggle for something that is far more important and far bigger than me. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Knesset express Rightist party offers Jonathan Pollard top spot on Knesset list. Mahmoud's Gospel Ahmadinejad: If Jesus were alive, he would stand in opposition to U.S.

Read & React Jewish parents deny Arab girl place in Jezreel Valley daycare Responses: 101 IDF assault on Hamas approved after massive Gaza rocket barrage Responses: 76 ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to believe Jews 'understand only force' Responses: 52 Israel Harel: IDF should deliver Hamas mortal blow for every rocket fired Responses: 16 More Headlines 18:15 Barak warns: Hamas will pay a 'heavy price' 17:47 Livni tells Mubarak: We'll act to halt 'unbearable' Gaza rocket fire 14:24 ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to believe Jews 'understand only force' 16:43 Report: Mumbai terrorists badly tortured Chabad House victims 13:15 Tourists flock to Bethlehem as city basks in Christmas spotlight 18:37 Five Qassams hit Negev as IDF prepares to strike Hamas 15:31 Jewish groups blast Belgian TV for comic's Holocaust jokes 16:54 Renowned U.K. Jewish playwright Harold Pinter dies aged 78 15:04 Ministry slams gvernment decision to cutback on shcool security 14:55 Terrorists go digital, using iPhones, Google to coordinate attacks 10:53 Leftist Meretz issues rare call for military action against Hamas 14:22 Police suspect Bnei Brak woman killed friend then reported death 05:15 Bones found at rabbi's tomb on Mount Meron ignite uproar 08:07 Report: Egypt won't object to short IDF offensive in Gaza 18:26 After 4,300 years, pharaonic tombs unearthed in Egypt 09:41 Support for Likud falling among right-wing voters, survey finds Previous Editions Select Day 24 dec 23 dec 22 dec 21 dec 19 dec 18 dec 17 dec 16 dec 15 dec 14 dec 12 dec 11 dec

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