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Last update - 03:24 19/12/2008 A short path, from Gaza to Somalia By Daniel Levy Tags: israel news As the defined period for the Gaza cease-fire comes to an end today, preceded by a new cycle of violence, Israelis are being treated to a predictable dose of political posturing and chest-thumping. "We must do something, exact a price," we hear. Yes, the rocket fire needs to stop, but there is no military answer to this predicament. To recap: For most of the six months of the cease-fire, relative quiet prevailed, and life returned to near-normal for the residents of Sderot and environs (though not for Gazans, who remained under siege). Then on November 4, an Israeli operation sparked a new round of dangerous, if controlled, violence - characterized by occasional Israeli strikes and incursions, matched by Palestinian rockets and shooting across the border. The cease-fire, while far from ideal, was an improvement over what had preceded it. Of course, Hamas sought to upgrade its military and defensive capacities during this period, as Israel should have been doing on the other side of the border - it would have been absurd to expect otherwise. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail and the cease-fire will be extended - it is in the interests of both sides. The military alternative is not an attractive one - from Israel's side, escalation leading to partial or full reoccupation of Gaza, from Hamas, rockets and perhaps armed attacks from the West Bank in response. It also has no obvious exit strategy. Advertisement But the debate in Israel about continuing the cease-fire largely misses the point. Whether or not it's extended, Israel's overall approach toward Gaza is dangerously mistaken. A siege designed to depose Hamas rule (a problematic goal in itself, but that's another story) risks triggering a social collapse that would have devastating consequences for all concerned. Anyone in search of a cautionary tale, and a peek at a possible future scenario for Gaza, should look at Somalia - which has the dubious distinction of having reintroduced piracy to the daily news lexicon, and from which Ethiopian troops are now planning to withdraw following an ugly two-year occupation. Somalia has gone through 17 years of impoverishment, chaos, destruction and warlords, featuring 13 transitional governments - and is somehow still getting worse. In June 2006, having overrun most of the country, a coalition known as the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), together with businessmen and clan leaders, ousted the various warlords and the woefully ineffectual Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) from the capital Mogadishu. The following months of ICU rule, despite the often unpopular imposition of strict Islamic law, according to The New York Times, "turned out to be one of the most peaceful periods in modern Somali history." But that December, the Ethiopian military, with American support and at the invitation of the discredited TFG, invaded Somalia and has been there ever since. Though the initial military victory was a rout, the illegitimacy and brutality of the Ethiopian presence soon led to the inevitable - a bloody insurgency. The insurgents, now divided and including the ICU and other armed factions, are winning. The Ethiopian military and a small African Union force are readying their withdrawal, and the TFG is bitterly divided. The future looks bleak. What, if anything, might Israel learn from all this? The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is beginning to approximate that of Somalia, where 77 percent of the population requires emergency humanitarian support, and the rate of malnutrition is the world's highest. Food insecurity in Gaza currently runs at 56 percent and is deteriorating rapidly, 42 percent of the Strip's population is unemployed and 76 percent is receiving humanitarian assistance (all UN figures). Harsh closures have effectively led to Gaza becoming deindustrialized, and Israeli reluctance even to replenish tattered banknotes is demonetizing the economy. There is a slippery slope from an entrenched humanitarian crisis into bloody anarchy and ungovernable chaos - especially when arms are ubiquitous and there is an open wound of unresolved national grievance. One thing that can prevent a descent into the abyss is the existence of recognized and accepted political leadership. At the very least, Hamas today is an address for possible deals and decision-making, but Israel's assassinations and imprisonment of its leaders take their toll. An Israeli military escalation would likely accelerate the splintering of Hamas' leadership and the emergence of more radical alternatives; that was the effect of Ethiopia's intervention in its backyard. Both Somalia and Palestine are in need of broad and inclusive power-sharing arrangements, brokered internationally and insulated from neighborhood vetoes. If Israel were again to find itself stuck in Gaza, don't expect international forces to come riding to the rescue. Ethiopia's military hoped to be replaced by an internationally sanctioned African Union force, but the troops couldn't be summoned. Handing over a Gaza that's been re-invaded by Israel to Arab and international forces is equally unrealistic. Finally, there is the destabilizing regional effect of failed states. In Somalia's case, it was Eritrea and Djibouti that bore the brunt of the impact, in addition to Ethiopia, and of course the infamous piracy in the oil-shipping lanes of the Gulf of Aden. Alongside Israel, Egypt is most immediately affected by turmoil in Gaza - with potentially severe consequences for regime stability and legitimacy, and for security in the Sinai and beyond. Gaza is not yet Somalia. But the warning signs are there. There was nothing inevitable about the disintegration of Somalia. It happened as a result of misguided policies - notably of the current Bush administration and Ethiopia - which should not be repeated by Israel in Gaza. Israel must do more than extend a cease-fire - Israel must allow Gaza to breathe, to reconnect to the world, to live on more than international handouts, and to reclaim its dignity. Could Hamas benefit in the short term? Perhaps. But worse things can happen - and not just to the Palestinians. For Israel, too, much is at stake. It's no fun to live in a Somalia, and no picnic either being its next-door neighbor. Daniel Levy, a senior fellow at the New America and Century Foundations, was previously an adviser in the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, and the lead Israeli drafter of the Geneva Initiative. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Caught on camera IDF soldier arrested for allegedly shooting gun while rioting with settlers in Hebron. Kadima's election ploy New computer game pokes fun at Netanyahu's reluctance to debate Livni.   1.   Thank you for a courageous article, Daniel Levy... 06:10  |  Silvienne 19/12/08   2.   more from cloud cuckoo land on magic moments in time 11:02  |  victor hardman 19/12/08   3.   Nonsense 11:11  |  Linichka 19/12/08   4.   What would it take to break the strategic Hamas/Likud alliance ?? 11:20  |  Swiss (Dino) 19/12/08   5.   Hamas`s responsibility in all this? 11:26  |  Mike 19/12/08   6.   very true 11:33  |  rm 19/12/08   7.   What`s your beef Mr Levy? 11:34  |  Charles 19/12/08   8.   There are worse things than Hamas! 11:45  |  Manny Goldstein 19/12/08   9.   MIndblowing garbage 12:26  |  Alan 19/12/08   10.   Dont undermine the horrors in africa by drawing paralel with gaz 12:38  |  lily 19/12/08   11.   gaza=somalia equivalency 13:20  |  DesertEagle50 19/12/08   12.   To breathe and to reconnect... 13:23  |  sandra chitayat 19/12/08   13.   Swiss 13:29  |  Linichka 19/12/08   14.   Gaza is not under siege 13:48  |  Herbert Kaine 19/12/08   15.   Gaza is not under siege 13:48  |  Herbert Kaine 19/12/08   16.   Gaza is not under siege 13:48  |  Herbert Kaine 19/12/08   17.   All you right wingers #2 #5 #9 14:18  |  C 19/12/08   18.   Ask Egypt, which also borders Gaza, to end the "Siege". 14:37  |  Lee 19/12/08   19.   Very true 14:44  |  Dafna 19/12/08   20.   On the path to Somalia. 15:15  |  Stephen. 19/12/08   21.   Nice article 15:23  |  Roo 19/12/08   22.   Please tell the truth: IDF operation came after Hamas dug a tunn 15:48  |  ex-leftist 19/12/08   23.   Gazastan becoming Somalia would be a distinct improvement 17:01  |  Dr. L. Brnd 19/12/08   24.   Well Manny, if there is "no military solution" then why isn`t 17:15  |  Jacob Blues 19/12/08   25.   New Perspective-thank you 18:21  |  American 19/12/08   26.   It takes two to dance 19:31  |  GPS 19/12/08   27.   Mr. Levy Predicts Success Of The Siege 19:43  |  Jeff Northridge 19/12/08   28.   Terrorists live in the Middle Ages, so that`s how we fight them. 19:43  |  "War Criminal" 19/12/08   29.   Daniel Levy`s article gives an overall perspective to changing 20:27  |  Smadar 19/12/08   30.   Swiss (Dino) and his fabrications 2nd try 20:36  |  David Israel 19/12/08   31.   Shock......... 20:39  |  Shoshi 19/12/08   32.   Jeff Northridge-#13 Confused? Don`t be! 20:56  |  Roo 19/12/08   33.   Swiss (Dino) your fabrications - 3rd try 21:43  |  David Israel 19/12/08   34.   This is a lie. Without a siege Gaza will become another Lebanon 21:50  |  McQueen 19/12/08   35.   Daniel Levy and Gaza 21:55  |  The Bedouin 19/12/08   36.   Is there no border to Egypt that can be opened to avoid such cata 22:16  |  sharon 19/12/08   37.   I still don`t get it, can somebody really explain? 23:13  |  Tulip 19/12/08   38.   Jeff Northridge-#13 Confused? Don`t be! 23:21  |  Roo 19/12/08   39.   Gaza 00:02  |  Ton van der Heijden 20/12/08   40.   Jeff Northridge-#13 Confused? Don`t be! 00:54  |  Roo 20/12/08   41.   Sharon, the reasons Egypt cannot open Rafah... 01:41  |  BBSNews 20/12/08   42.   Jeff Northridge-#13 Confused? Don`t be! 02:07  |  Roo 20/12/08   43.   "Gaza likely to turn into Somalia if Israel continues siege" 02:23  |  Akram Zekaria 20/12/08   44.   A short path from GAZA to EGYPT. 02:33  |  jacobo lashak-korogo 20/12/08   45.   Some Definition Please, BSnews 03:44  |  Jasper 20/12/08   46.   The backlash is already under way... 04:12  |  Dutch 20/12/08   47.   Palestine could be a great danger for the Middle East ! 04:46  |  Akram Zekaria 20/12/08   48.   Dutch Treat 04:47  |  Sean 20/12/08   49.   This article is not good at all 04:51  |  Magnus K. 20/12/08   50.   To Jeff Northridge 04:59  |  Magnus K. 20/12/08   51.   The mistake is, the lack of 05:17  |  Achjaa 20/12/08   52.   Dutch #22 Tell me who your friends are and 07:12  |  GPS 20/12/08   53.   BBS News 07:44  |  sharon 20/12/08   54.   Left wing appeaser Daniel Levy, Making Stuff up Again 07:46  |  Dan Livni 20/12/08   55.   # Magnus of Norway 10:39  |  eva 20/12/08   56.   A short path, from Gaza to Somalia? 11:30  |  chris 20/12/08   57.   BBSNews..... news that`s not fit for print 13:30  |  allang 20/12/08   58.   Only by Intent 13:35  |  a wandering Jew 20/12/08   59.   Magnus K. # 50 They Are Already Radicalized To The Max 17:13  |  Jeff Northridge 20/12/08   60.   A short path, from terror to peace 17:27  |  Hub Dumont 20/12/08   61.   How about talking to honest bloggers. 17:48  |  John Allen 20/12/08   62.   Swiss (Dino) #4 Just Wondering 18:21  |  Gil 20/12/08   63.   # 30 David Israel, I`m afraid you have outed yourself..... 18:35  |  Swiss (Dino) 20/12/08   64.   # 13 Linichka, don`t worry, I surely won`t start...... 18:38  |  Swiss (Dino) 20/12/08   65.   Daniel Levy should move to Gaza. 23:18  |  Jerusalem jew 20/12/08   66.   Manny Goldstein 01:29  |  Sean 21/12/08   67.   IS SOMALIA WORSE THAN GAZA ??? 04:02  |  Fortuna Benmayor 21/12/08   68.   gaza-somalia? 05:27  |  jg 21/12/08   69.   M.Goldstein "there is no military solution"that includes Qassems 06:05  |  PETER SM 21/12/08   70.   Gaza versus Africa 08:22  |  Jack 21/12/08   71.   # 62 Gil, please read my response to David Israel.... 13:37  |  Swiss (Dino) 21/12/08   72.   The poison flowing from Iran 04:28  |  BrainForHumanism 22/12/08   73.   Pathetic attempt to try and link Gaza to Somalia 09:59  |  Joe Sittizen 22/12/08   74.   How the zionists posters here hate it when a Jew tells the truth 21:17  |  Silvienne 22/12/08

Read & React U.K. envoy: Fight against settlements not about boycotting Israel Responses: 140 Mubarak extends rare invite to Livni for talks on Gaza violence Responses: 49 Yoel Marcus: Have politicians pushing for Gaza war forgotten Lebanon debacle? Responses: 55 Olmert to Turkish PM: We must advance toward direct Israel-Syria talks Responses: 58 B. Chefetz: Security fence breeding new generation of suicide bombers Responses: 51 More Headlines 01:25 Israel partially opens Gaza crossings, as Hamas voices interest on renewing truce 02:47 ANALYSIS / Hamas is playing the brinkmanship game in Gaza 21:23 Top Lebanon MP Hariri: Talks with Israel not in our national interest 22:04 Arab League chief urges member states to talk to Iran 19:26 Olmert orders Jerusalem-area separation fence built by 2010 01:26 IDF soldier detained for firing gun alongside rioting settlers 23:52 Livni and Netanyahu eye satire TV offers after Barak appears on 'A Wonderful Country' 00:43 Settler council appeals for ban on Geneva Initiative campaign 01:49 Olmert hearing over possible Rishon Tours indictment set for February 21:16 Kadima's latest election trick: Computer game targeting Netanyahu 18:22 Activists to sail from Lebanon in new bid to break Gaza blockade 18:46 French envoy: Palestinians given $3b in foreign aid in 2008 14:57 Lieberman: Decent defense minister could solve Gaza problem in 2 months 19:39 New York man admits he helped broadcast Hezbollah TV in U.S. store 16:12 Knesset panel: No raises in 2009 for MKs, salaries to stay at NIS 33,259 18:31 WATCH: How do YOU celebrate Hanukkah? 03:04 Meretz seeks 'blocking majority' to prevent Netanyahu government Previous Editions Select Day 23 dec 22 dec 21 dec 19 dec 18 dec 17 dec 16 dec 15 dec 14 dec 12 dec 11 dec 10 dec

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