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Iranian obstacle course By Emanuele Ottolenghi Tags: barack obama, iran nuclear  President-elect Barack Obama intends to engage Iran in "direct but tough diplomacy." It's an ambitious plan, given Iran's absolute refusal to suspend uranium enrichment. But one that makes sense. Obama's campaign record on Iran's nuclear program, after all, is unequivocal: His policy will be one of prevention, not deterrence. For Obama, a nuclear Iran would be a "game changer," and is "unacceptable." Unless a change of heart is in the making, then, Theodore Roosevelt's old maxim seems to best capture the next administration's posture on Iran: "Speak softly and carry a big stick." About the big stick we know: tougher sanctions, embargoes, naval blockades or even military action. But in devising a strategy of engagement, Obama should carefully study Iran's talent for stalling. After all, six years of fruitless negotiations yielded only one tangible result from European diplomacy: Europe constantly shifted its red lines to accommodate Iran's demands, but got nothing in return. Engagement therefore needs a deadline and a red line: If Iran crosses these, Obama must kiss Tehran goodbye and muster America's allies' support to use the stick - not an easy task. Advertisement In theory, the logic is compelling. After all, Europe insists that only direct American involvement and guarantees to Iran will budge the regime. If this does not work, Obama can tell his friends at home and abroad, "We listened to you, we tried in earnest, we failed. Now it is time to squeeze Iran, and we count on your cooperation." Sanctions will ensue, and if military action were to become inevitable, a failed diplomatic effort would improve the chances that a war would look more like Iraq 1991 than Iraq 2003 - with the UN, Russia, Europe and the Arab world all on board. In practice, there are six obstacles Obama must factor in to ensure this approach does not become prisoner of yet another Iranian ruse to gain time. Three obstacles are posed by America's friends and three by its foe, Iran. America's dialogue with Tehran may be direct, but it cannot be outside the P5+1 diplomatic framework - the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. Europe especially does not wish America to negotiate behind its back and wants to keep Obama's diplomatic efforts within this context. This may prevent tensions among friends, but it will leave the process hostage to Russia's and China's ambivalence about Iran. The second obstacle comes from the assumption - yet to be tested - that the U.S. would negotiate with Tehran "without preconditions." This overture would sabotage five UN Security Council resolutions adopted since December 2006, which demand that Iran suspend uranium enrichment as a precondition to moving forward. Opening a dialogue with Tehran would contradict the letter and spirit of the resolutions, undermine sanctions and, most critically, signal to fence-sitters - both governments and companies - that they can jump-start trade with Iran, regardless of sanctions. The third obstacle comes from America's regional allies. Gulf monarchies cannot afford to be tougher than America - and calls on their governments to tighten the screws on Iran will fall on deaf ears. If the U.S. is talking to Tehran, who are they to flex muscles at their mighty neighbor? Dialogue's danger, in other words, is that America may alienate its friends before it has gained its rival's readiness to compromise. Even if Obama is able to avoid such pitfalls, Iran will endeavor to place stumbling blocks in his path. First, while dialogue can go on forever, Iran's nuclear quest will soon cross a breakout point, and, as in a game of musical chairs, engagement may leave America standing when the music stops. Well before it can test a nuclear weapon, Iran's technological breakthrough will constitute the game changer against which Obama has sounded his warnings. That moment is not fixed in time, but Iran's timeline is potentially one of months, not years. Second, Iran's stalling tactics will aim to blur America's red lines and delay its deadlines. When the U.S. cries foul, Iran will rely on European, Russian and Arab governments to intercede on its behalf - gaining it one more month, one more round of talks, one more chance. It will not be easy to say no - what would justify an American ultimatum? Third, there's Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment - see above. What guarantee can Washington get that Iran will not reach the point of no return while negotiations are in progress, since its enrichment capacities are improving all the time? Hence, Obama's dilemma. He may succeed in engaging Tehran while maintaining the international consensus, a coherent strategy with America's allies and a clear resolve not to undermine UN resolutions. Having ensured support from his allies, he could speak to Iran, knowing that a failure to deliver would give him a mandate to squeeze Iran - with force if necessary. But while trying this dance he might discover that Iran took him for a ride, that its willingness to engage was just a play for time and that now, before the elaborate architecture he put in place has come to fruition, Iran has changed the rules of the game and ushered in a bright new beginning - one capped by a giant mushroom cloud. Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi is executive director of the Transatlantic Institute in Brussels and the author of the forthcoming book "Under a Mushroom Cloud: Europe, Iran and the Bomb" (Profile Books, U.K.). 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